Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
259 FOUS30 KWBC 091948 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 348 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025 Day 1 Valid 16Z Sun Mar 09 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 10 2025 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES... ...16Z update... Over the past few hours ending at 1530Z, radar imagery over the Florida Panhandle into northern Florida showed scattered thunderstorms in the vicinity of a quasi-stationary front which extended west to east across northern Florida. Estimated rainfall from multi-sensor MRMS over the past 24 hours was in the 1 to 3 inch range across the Florida Panhandle. Water vapor imagery showed an upstream closed low/positively tilted trough over the Southern Plains, which is forecast by the latest model consensus to advance eastward into the Southeast over the next 24-36 hours. The closed low is forecast to strengthen through tonight, while the associated trough axis becomes less positively tilted, increasing diffluence and divergence downstream over the Southeast. The response at the surface will be for a low to strengthen along the central Gulf Coast and track east along a quasi- stationary front today/tonight, eventually lifting north as a warm front by Monday morning. Expectations are for a resurgence of convection between 18-00Z with areas of training along the frontal boundary and/or convectively generated outflow, with peak rates in the 1-2 in/hr range for the most part. Similar to the previous discussion, still thinking than an additional 2-4 inches will be possible by 12Z Monday, with embedded locally higher totals possible. Only minor adjustments were made to the previous outlook based on radar trends and the 12Z HREF. Otto ...previous discussion follows... Have introduced a Slight Risk area from the Florida panhandle eastward into portions of the northern Florida peninsula and adjacent portions of southern Georgia given increasing support from the models...both global and mesoscale...for higher rainfall amounts/rates. Present indications are that convection capable of producing rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour will be possible in a corridor along/near the coastal portions of the Florida panhandle northeastward from this morning into early afternoon (approximately in the period from 12Z to 18Z) in association with one shortwave that taps some Gulf instability. Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall looks to develop in the 10/00Z to 10/06Z period as a second shortwave follows a similar path as the first shortwave. Rainfall totals in of 2 to 4 inches could occur within that corridor...although there could easily be some higher amounts embedded within the belt of heavy rainfall. Those rainfall amounts have the potential to result in flooding of low-lying areas, creeks and roadways. Bann Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Mar 10 2025 - 12Z Tue Mar 11 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding Flash Flood Guidance is less than 5 percent. Otto/Bann Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Mar 11 2025 - 12Z Wed Mar 12 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding Flash Flood Guidance is less than 5 percent. Otto/Bann Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt