405
FOUS30 KWBC 300809
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
409 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 30 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...

The latest guidance continues to show the south/southeast trend of
where the heaviest rain is expected to occur Monday across the
Virginias. During this time the slow moving upper low will be transferring
its energy to a coastal low feature located offshore Virginia and
North Carolina. This will likely lead to a prolonged local
enhancement in hourly rainfall rates near the Blue Ridge of 1 to
1.5 inches/hour during this period. Soils near saturation from
recent rains will keep the threat for flash flooding elevated for
much of this region. A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall remains
in effect for extreme eastern West Virginia, northern/central
Virginia, and north-central North Carolina. The Marginal Risk was
extended to cover much of coastal North Carolina in association
with the developing coastal low potentially locally increasing
rainfall totals due to slow- moving convection especially on the
western side of Pamlico Sound.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt