Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
434 FOUS30 KWBC 100827 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 427 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Day 1 Valid 12Z Thu Oct 10 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 11 2024 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA... Heavy rainfall from Milton continues to quickly move east across the Florida Peninsula. Additional rain of 1 to 4 inches is likely over the next couple hours along portions of the central and northern FL east coast. However based on recent radar and HRRR trends it appears likely that most, if not all, of this heavier rain will be offshore by 12z this morning. Thus while areas of considerable flash flooding will continue over the next few hours, the expectation is that additional flash flooding after 12z will be minimal. For that reason we will carry only a Marginal risk on the new day 1 ERO that goes into effect at 12z this morning. The ongoing High risk remains valid for the next couple hours until 12z. Keep in mind that even after the heavy rain ends, significant areal and river flooding will continue to be a concern in areas that have received significant rainfall. Chenard Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 11 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 12 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Chenard Day 3 Valid 12Z Sat Oct 12 2024 - 12Z Sun Oct 13 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Chenard Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt