839
FOUS30 KWBC 302235
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
535 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Dec 01 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 01 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Asherman


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 01 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 02 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST AND DEEP SOUTH...

2030Z Update...

The 12Z multi-model consensus overall shows little change to
continuity with respect to QPF and the broader synoptic scale mass
field pattern. Thus, the Marginal Risk area remains in place
across portions of the Gulf Coast and through the Deep South.

Orrison

Previous discussion...

A fast-moving positively tilted shortwave trough will move east in
parallel with a strong cold front that will sweep across the South,
drawing abundant Gulf moisture for December north and east along
the frontal interface. The enhanced lift associated with both the
shortwave trough and attendant jet streak will favor cyclogenesis,
especially Monday night as the low forms across far southern
Georgia and coastal South Carolina. While the cold front will push
the Gulf moisture with embedded thunderstorms along to the east, by
the time the low forms along the front, it will have generally
stalled out, with little southward progress. This should act to
keep the pattern quite progressive, even if areas will still see
heavy rain from thunderstorms. Further, the soil moisture levels
across much of the South are below to well below average. This
should support the soils largely soaking up the mostly stratiform
(albeit with embedded convection) rain. There were few changes made
to the Marginal Risk area, as the area of greatest concern for
isolated instances of flash flooding are the urban centers from
Houston east through New Orleans, Montgomery, and Atlanta.

Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 02 2025 - 12Z Wed Dec 03 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Orrison


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt