Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
105 FOUS30 KWBC 150755 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 255 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 Day 1 Valid 12Z Fri Nov 15 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Campbell Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024 - 12Z Mon Nov 18 2024 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... An upper trough traversing through the West this weekend is expected to split which will send energy in the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest along with a strong southern stream cutoff low into the Four Corner that will exit into the Central/Southern Plains for the start of the week. A surface low pressure system will forecast to spin up in the lee of the Rockies and deepen as it tracks from the Plains through the Midwest. Scattered to widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will be supported by this setup across portions of the Southern Rockies and the adjacent Southern/Central Plains. Guidance is suggesting 1 to 2 inches of rain for central and eastern portions of New Mexico, particularly over some of the same areas that had several inches of snow last week. With rain on top of snow expected some locations will have an increased risk for flooding concerns. The Marginal Risk area that was already in effect was expanded westward to now cover central and eastern portions of New Mexico. The highest concentration of rainfall will likely focus across parts of northern Texas/panhandle into western Oklahoma. Consensus suggests areal average of 3 to 4.5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Therefore, a Slight Risk was introduced with this issuance. Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt