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FOUS30 KWBC 072259
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
559 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Feb 08 2025 - 12Z Sat Feb 08 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Churchill/Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 08 2025 - 12Z Sun Feb 09 2025

West Virginia...
An approaching frontal wave is expected to bring precipitable water
values up above an inch into WV. While 1000-500 hPa thickness
values are higher when compared to Thursday`s rainfall farther
south, implying slightly less atmospheric saturation, the
combination of 50+ kts of 850 hPa inflow into WV along with ~100
J/kg of CAPE and the forecast precipitable water values should be
sufficient for hourly rain totals of 0.5"+, even though this is not
advertised in the 12z HREF. The three hour flash flood guidance
values are so low (around 1") that those values could be exceeded
with two hours of such rains. Since soils there are saturated, and
the terrain is rugged, opted to add a Marginal Risk area for much
of WV (outside of its northern or eastern Panhandles) in
coordination with the Charleston WV forecast office. This also
helps support their and Blacksburg VA`s new flood watch.

Roth



Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 09 2025 - 12Z Mon Feb 10 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Hurley


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt