742
FOUS30 KWBC 230823
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

Showers and thunderstorms will be firing up ahead of and along the
east-west stationary/warm frontal boundary draped across southern
Texas and again with the approach of the cold front from western
Texas by late afternoon/evening. Parts of the Dallas/Fort Worth
metro could realize rain accumulations of at least 3 inches,
however much of the Consensus keeps the majority of the higher QPF
focused north of the Hill Country and for less populated
locations.

While this less populated region of Central/ Northwest Texas
within the south-central portion of the Slight Risk has
indications of 5"+ potential (per 40-km HREF 5" exceedance probs of
~15%), this signal is being driven seemingly entirely by one
member (the FV3, which is generally one of the less reliable
members) with the bulk of the CAM guidance in good agreement
indicating 2-4" totals. The bulk of the expected QPF will occur in
the last 6 hour segment of the period, this may or may not play a
limiting factor in the need of a local Moderate Risk.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
ARKANSAS AND NORTH TEXAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...

Organized convection will be ongoing across North Texas and into
southeastern Oklahoma and the Ark-La-Tex region, moving east
across Arkansas and into the Mid-South during the day. The best
potential for heavy rainfall will center around North Texas
initially before spreading eastward. Guidance maintains a split in
location of the 3+ inch exceedance from a relatively
hydrologically sensitive region from southwest Oklama into
northwest/north-central Arkansas (mainly driven by the GFS/GEFS)
and the other camp indicating higher odds for 3" exceedance farther
south into the Ark-La-Tex and southern Arkansas. There may need to
be considerations for a future targeted Moderate Risk upgrade,
though for this to occur more guidance would most likely need to
shift towards the northern solution (or consolidate towards the
southern solution while also getting wetter, as FFGs indicate much
less sensitive soils that would require a broader area of 3"+
before meeting Moderate coverage criteria).

Campbell/Churchill


Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025 - 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025

The low pressure system is expected to continue advancing eastward
then will track northeast while weakening on Tuesday. This will
shift the focus of convection to south-central/Southeast during
this period. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall was maintained
from the previous Day 4 outlook. Areal averages of 1 to 3 inches
will be common.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt