915
FNUS74 KEPZ 081436
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Feely Piles RX...Gila National Forest
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
736 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MST on January 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
No fire weather concerns with cold temperatures and scattered snow
showers through Thursday night. The added surface moisture brought
by the entire winter event and snowfall will limit rapid fire growth
and act to wet the fuels in the area. Snow amounts of less than an
inch are expected through this evening, followed by a break in
between systems Thursday AM. The second disturbance brings 1-2" of
snow Thursday PM. There is potential for totals closer to 4" with
that second system. Ventilation will be good today due to the brisk
southeast winds, then poor to fair thereafter as winds become
lighter.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow showers late in the morning. Chance of
                    snow showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 39.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 37 mph.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 22 to 27 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (34100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (61600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........92     72     73     73     66
Weather cov.....NONE   S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10     20     30     30     30
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............26     34     36     38     37
RH..............65     49     45     46     50
20 ft wind......E 15   SE 14  SE 13  SE 13  SE 12
20 ft wind gust.33     37     32     32     29
Mix hgt (ft)....600    1900   2900   2400   1400
Transport wind..E 24   SE 27  SE 27  SE 22  SE 22
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14     52     62     51     31
Ventrate Cat....POOR   FAIR   GOOD   FAIR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of snow
                    showers early in the evening. Slight chance of
                    snow showers after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 20.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 11 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 5 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........47     47     50     57     57     55
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE NONE   NONE   NONE   S CHC
Weather type....SNSHWR SNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   SNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     10     10     10     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............32     26     25     24     23     22
RH..............61     71     74     77     81     81
20 ft wind......SE 11  SE 11  E 9    E 7    E 7    NE 5
20 ft wind gust.25     25     21     13     13     9
Mix hgt (ft)....800    800    1100   1100   1100   1100
Transport wind..SE 16  SE 16  SE 12  SE 12  E 8    E 8
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13     13     11     11     10     10
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of snow
                    showers.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 39.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 8 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........63        55        62        69
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....SNSHWR    SNSHWR    SNSHWR    SNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30        50        50        50
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............20        28        37        39
RH..............88        75        53        52
20 FT wind......N 4G8     NW 5G13   W 7G15    N 8G16
Mix hgt (ft)....900       900       3200      3300
Transport wind..N 7       N 7       NW 11     NW 11
Haines index....2         2         2         3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5         5         32        33
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 15. Highs in the upper 30s. Northeast
winds around 9 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Clear. Lows around 18. Highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds
around 6 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 18. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest
winds around 6 mph.

$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...Silver City Ranger District
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2500127.2/EPZ
.DELDT 01/08/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL zachary.armijo@usda.gov