489
FNUS74 KEPZ 231917
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Appaloosa...FS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
117 PM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1300 MDT on August 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered cumulus development continues through the afternoon with
a stray rain shower not to be ruled out. The chance of rain is
about 10 percent through the evening. Winds will be 5 to 10 mph
from the southeast this afternoon, shifting northerly tonight with
drainage flow. Overnight recovery will be good. Storm chances
increase for Sunday, but will be low with potential for gusty and
erratic outflow winds. Otherwise, winds tomorrow will be light and
variable with modest upslope flow. Storm chances continue to rise
into midweek as moisture levels increase to above normal. There is
a low threat of flash flooding Tuesday through Thursday.
Temperatures will be near normal into midweek.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......10100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (57300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (70400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........45  45  56  56  56
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10
Temp............77  77  78  78  77
RH..............24  24  22  23  24
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.14  14  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...8.6 10  10  9   8
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   8   8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..57  70  70  70  60
Ventrate Cat....FR  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening and
                    overnight becoming light.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (51500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........63  63  63  61  61  61  58  58  58  40  40  40
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............74  70  65  62  61  59  58  57  56  55  54  53
RH..............27  34  40  44  44  47  49  53  55  55  59  59
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  10  10  10  10  10  10  9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...7.4 5.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   8   11  11  11  11  12  12  12  12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..52  32  12  2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  FR  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5900 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26  26  26  5   5   5   46  46  46  66  66  66
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONECHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                                    RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONECHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  30  30  30
Temp............52  55  59  64  68  71  74  76  76  77  77  76
RH..............63  57  51  41  33  31  27  26  26  25  28  30
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.8   8   8   9   9   9   12  12  12  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6   6   6   6   36  36  36  36  36  36  36  36
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Light winds.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. East winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s.
Highs in the upper 60s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.

$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...NMSDC
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2520519.0/EPZ
.DELDT 08/23/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc_expanded@firenet.gov