Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
506
FNUS74 KEPZ 012312
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Centerfire...NM-SDC
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
512 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1700 MDT on July 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers are ongoing near the site this evening with
possible gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 30 mph. The showers
will dissipate around sunset with lingering clouds overnight.
Winds will be less than 5 mph from the east tonight due to
drainage flow with very good overnight recovery. For Wednesday,
winds remain very light with medium rain and storm chances during
the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds are possible again as low
rain chances linger through Wednesday night. Rain chances continue
through Thursday before drier conditions return by Friday.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon, then slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph late in the
afternoon becoming light. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph shifting to the south
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (77200 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (3300 knot-ft) late in the
night.
TIME (MDT) 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM
Sky (%).........56 60 51 51 48 25 25
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 20 10 10 10 10
Temp............77 71 66 62 58 53 52
RH..............26 36 52 62 69 80 86
20 ft wind......SE 5 SE 4 SE 2 SE 2 E 2 E 2 E 2
20 ft wind gust.17 16 10 10 8 6 6
Mix hgt (ft)....7700 4700 700 600 600 500 500
Transport wind..SE 12 SE 11 SE 11 S 9 S 9 S 7 S 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..77 49 9 5 5 3 3
Ventrate Cat....GOOD FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the
afternoon. Rain showers and thunderstorms
likely late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph
late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 5 mph shifting to the east around
6 mph in the late morning and early afternoon,
then shifting to the southwest around 9 mph
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (46600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........37 37 13 47 47 70
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 40 50 60
Temp............50 56 67 75 76 75
RH..............93 77 52 33 30 32
20 ft wind......S 1 S 1 S 3 S 4 S 4 SW 5
20 ft wind gust.6 6 10 14 14 16
Mix hgt (ft)....500 1300 4700 7700 7200 5200
Transport wind..S 5 S 5 E 6 E 6 SW 9 SW 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 9 29 39 47 47
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR FAIR FAIR
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
overnight.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph shifting to the northwest in
the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2200 knot-ft).
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........80 68 64 58
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50 50 20 20
Temp............72 65 58 55
RH..............38 54 69 77
20 FT wind......W 3G16 NW 2G8 W 2G7 SW 1G5
Mix hgt (ft)....2800 800 400 500
Transport wind..W 10 W 10 NW 8 W 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..26 6 3 2
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph with gusts
to around 20 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......7700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (20800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (68300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........52 55 66
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 50
Temp............53 63 72
RH..............83 58 35
20 FT wind......W 1G5 W 3G13 W 5G17
Mix hgt (ft)....3000 7700 7000
Transport wind..NW 6 W 10 NW 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..21 68 59
Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD FAIR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs around 80. Light winds.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the mid 80s. Light winds.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 80s.
Light winds.
$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...Joshua Evans
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517004.1/EPZ
.DELDT 07/01/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov