321
FNUS74 KEPZ 042339
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Highway Bravo Piles...US Forest Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
439 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MST on December 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Northeasterly winds will become east to southeasterly by morning,
remaining from that direction through Thursday night. Clouds and
rain chances increase starting mid to late morning (up to 50%),
lasting through Friday. It will predominately be shower activity,
but a rumble or two of thunder cannot be ruled out. Temperatures
will be cooler for Thursday with min RH values in the lower 40s.
Smoke transport is forecast to be to the northwest with good
venting.


...Percentages shown in the sky/weather portion reflect
sky cover amount...

...Mean elevations used to obtain mixing heights as follows:
Zone 110 - Reserve   (5900 ft)
Zone 111 - Deming    (4300 ft)
Zone 112 - Las Cruces(3900 ft)
Zone 113 - Ruidoso   (6900 ft)

Ventilation categories are determined by criteria established
by the state of New Mexico.


.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 7 mph.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 19 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (33600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (92900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........1      11     36     36     46
Weather cov.....NONE   CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      30     50     50     50
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............38     47     54     57     53
RH..............74     59     46     43     50
20 ft wind......E 7    SE 7   SE 7   SE 7   SE 7
20 ft wind gust.12     13     13     13     13
Mix hgt (ft)....1900   5200   5200   4900   4900
Transport wind..E 12   SE 19  SE 19  SE 16  SE 16
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..34     93     93     74     74
Ventrate Cat....POOR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers through the night.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........27           11           25
Weather cov.....CHANCE       CHANCE       CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR       RNSHWR       RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30           50           50
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............45           38           35
RH..............66           81           83
20 FT wind......E 7G12       E 6G10       E 5G9
Mix hgt (ft)....1300         1300         1200
Transport wind..E 10         E 10         E 10
Haines index....3            2            3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11           11           11
Ventrate Cat....POOR         POOR         POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning, then rain showers
                    likely in the late morning and afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 11 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (27000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (53600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........47        56        55        43
Weather cov.....CHANCE    LIKELY    LIKELY    LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).50        60        60        60
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............32        40        50        51
RH..............100       82        61        58
20 FT wind......NE 5G9    E 7G13    E 8G14    E 6G12
Mix hgt (ft)....2300      2300      4900      4600
Transport wind..E 12      E 12      E 13      E 11
Haines index....3         3         2         2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..27        27        54        41
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      FAIR      FAIR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows around 30. Highs in the
mid 50s. Light winds.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the upper 20s.
Highs in the mid 50s. West winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 30. Highs in the mid 50s. West winds
around 9 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...Xavier De La Torre
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2427859.0/EPZ
.DELDT 12/04/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL aaron.l.jones@usda.gov,xavier.delatorre@usda.gov,liz.carver@usda.gov,billy.trujillo@usda.gov,aaron.huerta@usda.gov