Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
769
FNUS74 KEPZ 141807
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Cub...Gila National Forest
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1207 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 MDT on May 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...
Red Flag conditions will prevail through today at burn site due to very
low RH values,strong winds, and very dry fuels. Peak gusts out of the WSW this
afternoon around 50 mph with Min RH values in the single digits. Very Low Min RH
values will continue through the weekend By this evening, around 7 to 9 pm time
frame,a weak Pacific cold front will push through the area switching to the northwest
behind the front with winds becoming light in the overnight hours. Lighter winds
are expected on Thursday with some afternoon breezes up to 20 mph and very west
to southwest during the afternoon hours. Dry weather will prevail through the
period with excellent vent rates through this afternoon and very good on Thursday.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 14 mph with gusts to around 28
mph shifting to the northwest around 5 mph
after 3 am.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 27 mph becoming northwest 9 to 14
mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (105900 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(0 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........7 7 7 11 11 11 17 17 17 11 11 11
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............54 51 48 44 42 40 38 38 37 34 34 33
RH..............14 15 15 19 21 24 25 26 28 32 32 34
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..14 14 14 12 12 12 7 7 7 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.28 28 28 24 24 24 16 16 16 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.27 27 27 27 14 14 14 14 9 9 9 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..106 106 106 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ventrate Cat....VGD VGD VGD VGD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in
the late morning and early afternoon, then
increasing to around 15 mph with gusts to
around 26 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 6 mph increasing to 16 to 24 mph in
the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (15700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (102800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to very good (146600
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6 6 6 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............32 34 39 44 49 53 55 57 59 60 60 59
RH..............36 33 30 24 18 15 13 12 11 11 11 11
20 FT wind dir..W W W S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..4 4 4 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15
20 FT wind gust.9 9 9 13 13 13 23 23 23 26 26 26
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8
Transp wind dir.W W W W SW SW SW SW W W W W
Transp wind spd.6 6 6 6 16 16 16 16 24 24 24 24
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16 16 16 16 103 103 103 103 147 147 147 147
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
early in the evening.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (107700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(0 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 2 2 2
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............57 54 51 48 46 44 42 41 40 39 37 35
RH..............11 13 15 17 19 20 22 23 25 26 28 30
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..12 12 12 8 8 8 6 6 6 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.25 25 25 17 17 17 13 13 13 9 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.20 20 20 20 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..108 108 108 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ventrate Cat....VGD VGD VGD VGD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 60s. West
winds around 8 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 50s. Southwest
winds around 14 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 50s. West
winds around 13 mph.
$$
Forecaster...KELLY
Requested by...Arona Huerea
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2513989.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc_expanded@firenet.gov