Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
013
FNUS74 KEPZ 300054
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Kemp Fire...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
654 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 MDT on June 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will be near the fire in the next hour and will
continue in the area through midnight. Strong, gusty and erratic
winds will be possible with any thunderstorms. Later tonight the
winds will slow, but continue out of the east or southeast. Gusty
southeast winds will occur again on Sunday with another chance for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The fire is in a favored
location for continued daily chances for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Strong gusty winds will be possible with any
storms. RH recoveries at night will be good over the next few
days.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the evening and
overnight, then isolated showers and
thunderstorms after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................4 until 0300, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (48900 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (8200 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM
Sky (%).........79 75 75 82 51 51
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).50 50 50 40 20 20
LAL.............5 5 5 4 1 1
Temp............83 73 68 64 62 59
RH..............32 51 63 73 78 83
20 ft wind......NW 2 N 2 N 2 N 2 N 2 N 2
20 ft wind gust.9 7 7 7 6 6
Mix hgt (ft)....2100 2100 900 900 900 900
Transport wind..E 10 E 10 NE 12 NE 12 E 11 E 11
Haines index....4 3 3 3 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..49 49 10 10 8 8
Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Isolated showers
and thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1500, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 6 to 9 mph in
the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph shifting to the south
around 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (35300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (118100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........13 13 4 14 14 48
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 20 20 30
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 4
Temp............59 68 76 82 87 88
RH..............83 68 52 35 29 26
20 ft wind......NE 3 NE 3 SE 6 SE 9 SE 9 SE 8
20 ft wind gust.9 9 16 21 21 21
Mix hgt (ft)....2900 2900 8800 8800 9900 9900
Transport wind..E 12 E 12 SE 15 SE 15 S 14 S 14
Haines index....2 2 2 3 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..35 35 104 104 118 118
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD VYGD VYGD VYGD
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Numerous showers
and thunderstorms in the evening, then
scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................5 until 2100, then 4.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 6 mph early in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the late evening and
overnight.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 14 mph shifting to the northwest
around 7 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (88200 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (8200 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........48 55 55 54
Weather cov.....NUMRUS NUMRUS SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NUMRUS SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).70 70 30 30
LAL.............5 5 4 4
Temp............85 70 64 59
RH..............30 57 78 87
20 FT wind......S 6G17 S 3G12 W 2G7 NE 2G5
Mix hgt (ft)....7400 7400 1300 1000
Transport wind..S 14 S 14 SW 12 NW 7
Haines index....3 3 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..88 88 14 8
Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD POOR POOR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s.
Highs in the mid 80s. Light winds.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Light winds.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 50s. Highs in the upper 80s. Light winds.
$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416941.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov