Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
776
FNUS74 KEPZ 162140
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for South Fork Wildfire...South Fork EOC
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
340 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on July 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
For Wednesday, moisture increases with a chance of storms in the
afternoon and evening. Debris flows and run-off from the burn scar
are possible into the overnight. Gusty winds and frequent lightning
are possible as well from storms. The more active pattern continues
for the rest of the week with scattered to widespread storms each
afternoon. Another warm day is expected on Wednesday, cooling off
for the rest of the week.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 9 mph with gusts to around
20 mph shifting to the east 11 to 12 mph in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (24800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (120400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........23 23 36 57 77 76
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 20 30 50
LAL.............1 1 1 3 4 5
Temp............57 65 74 81 85 86
RH..............67 53 42 33 30 30
20 ft wind......N 5 N 5 NE 9 E 12 E 12 E 11
20 ft wind gust.13 13 20 21 21 20
Mix hgt (ft)....1100 2100 5400 8400 10500 10500
Transport wind..E 6 E 6 E 13 E 13 SE 11 SE 11
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 8 40 100 117 117
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR FAIR VYGD VYGD VYGD
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................4.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 8 mph in the evening becoming
light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (92100 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (17100 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........76 76 76 75 75 75 74 74 74 71 71 71
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 40 40 40 40 40 40
LAL.............5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4
Temp............83 79 73 69 67 65 63 61 60 59 57 56
RH..............33 37 44 50 56 65 71 78 81 87 90 92
20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E NE NE NE E E E
20 FT wind spd..8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 3 3
20 FT wind gust.16 16 16 13 13 13 8 8 8 7 7 7
Mix hgt (kft)...9.3 6.3 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE E E E E SE SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.12 12 12 12 14 14 14 14 9 9 9 9
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..92 62 42 32 28 28 25 20 17 17 17 17
Ventrate Cat....GD GD FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................4 until 1200, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in
the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 10 mph shifting to the south
around 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (25200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (56000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........72 72 72 82 82 82 84 84 84 70 70 70
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 80 80 80 80 80 80
LAL.............4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
Temp............56 59 63 68 71 74 76 78 79 80 80 79
RH..............91 83 74 65 57 50 45 43 43 42 42 42
20 FT wind dir..E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.7 7 7 8 8 8 12 12 12 12 12 12
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4
Transp wind dir.E E E E S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..25 25 25 25 56 56 56 56 44 44 44 44
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s.
Highs in the lower 80s. South winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s.
Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
lower 50s. Highs in the lower 70s. East winds around 5 mph.
$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...Tibor Kocsis
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418039.8/EPZ
.DELDT 07/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kocsis84@gmail.com