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FNUS74 KEPZ 231520
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for GAIL FIRE...FS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
920 AM MDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 MDT on March 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions with Min RH values in the upper teens this afternoon. Min RH values will
continue to drop through Tuesday. Light west winds today with a few mountain top gusts
of 15 to 20 mph this afternoon in the wildfire area. By tonight, winds will becoming
light after sunset, Min RH values overnight will see a poor rebound into the lower
20s. For Monday, light north winds in the morning will turn northwest, then west in
the afternoon but remain light with some afternoon mountain top gusts at 15 to 17
mph. Min RH values will be in the lower teens in the afternoon. Vent rates will be
poor both today and Monday at the wildfire site with elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions in the forecast for both days. A storm system will bring some
moisture to the area on Wednesday and Thursday.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (32600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (130300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (136400
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      9 AM         1 PM         5 PM
Sky (%).........22           31           61
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            10           10
Temp............49           66           64
RH..............34           19           21
20 FT wind......NW 5G13      W 6G17       NW 9G21
Mix hgt (ft)....2300         10900        10900
Transport wind..NW 16        W 13         W 14
Vrate kt-ft/1K..33           130          136
Ventrate Cat....POOR         VYGD         VYGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 7 mph with gusts to around
                    20 mph early in the evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 14 mph shifting to the east around
                    10 mph in the late evening and overnight, then
                    shifting to the west around 11 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (83900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (7500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........79           63           18
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
Temp............60           45           42
RH..............26           47           53
20 FT wind......N 7G20       N 3G9        W 2G8
Mix hgt (ft)....6500         800          800
Transport wind..N 14         E 10         W 11
Vrate kt-ft/1K..84           8            8
Ventrate Cat....GOOD         POOR         POOR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 6 to 9 mph with
                    gusts to around 20 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (22200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (81200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........10           4            3
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
Temp............36           58           71
RH..............61           26           13
20 FT wind......NW 4G10      NW 3G12      NW 6G16
Mix hgt (ft)....2000         8300         10200
Transport wind..NW 13        NW 7         NW 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..22           52           81
Ventrate Cat....POOR         FAIR         GOOD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds
around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the lower 40s. Highs around 70. Southwest winds around 6 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around
40. Highs in the upper 60s. Southwest winds around 5 mph.

$$
Forecaster...KELLY
Requested by...Alamogordo Dispatch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2507005.1/EPZ
.DELDT 03/23/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmadc@firenet.gov