146
FNUS74 KEPZ 091428
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Feely Piles RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
728 AM MST Thu Jan 9 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MST on January 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Snow showers will develop later this morning and persist through the
overnight hours, with the snow ending Friday morning. Dry conditions
Saturday through Monday. Temperatures will warm some but still remain
below normal. Light, variable winds will see a wind shift to the northeast
late this afternoon with breezy winds. No other significant winds are
expected the remainder of the period.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of snow
                    showers early in the morning, then snow showers
                    likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 35.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 8 to 12 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 10 mph increasing to northeast
                    around 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (45800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........90     88     89     89     83
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30     40     60     60     60
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............21     28     33     35     33
RH..............90     75     64     61     62
20 ft wind......NW 5   NW 7   N 8    N 8    NE 12
20 ft wind gust.8      13     16     16     23
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   3500   3500   3300   3300
Transport wind..NW 6   N 10   N 10   NE 18  NE 18
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6      31     31     46     46
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Chance of snow
                    showers early in the evening, then slight
                    chance of snow showers late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 13.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 14 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 37 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 16 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........78     78     70     58     58     27
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).50     50     20     10     10     0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............25     21     19     17     15     14
RH..............79     84     85     81     79     73
20 ft wind......NE 17  NE 17  NE 20  NE 18  NE 18  NE 14
20 ft wind gust.32     32     37     33     33     28
Mix hgt (ft)....1800   1800   600    600    400    400
Transport wind..NE 24  NE 24  NE 23  NE 23  NE 16  NE 16
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..36     36     13     13     6      6
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 37.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 11 mph shifting to the
                    west late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 12 to 17 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 11 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (55400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........17        4         3         2
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............13        22        34        37
RH..............70        50        31        31
20 FT wind......NE 11G21  NE 8G15   N 7G13    W 6G12
Mix hgt (ft)....1100      1100      5100      4900
Transport wind..NE 17     NE 17     N 12      NW 11
Haines index....2         2         2         2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18        18        55        54
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      FAIR      FAIR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Clear. Lows around 16. Highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds
around 7 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 19. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest
winds around 7 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 17. Highs in the lower 40s. East winds
around 8 mph.

$$
Forecaster...HEFNER
Requested by...Silver City Ranger District
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2500127.3/EPZ
.DELDT 01/09/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL zachary.armijo@usda.gov