614
FNUS74 KEPZ 092001
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for FEELEY PILES RX...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
201 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MDT on October 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
...This is as far out as the forecast can go.  It is definitely
preliminary as there is discrepancies within models as to how
quick the moisture associated with the tropical systems this
weekend into early next week will move out and dry air replaces
it.  It does look like rain chances will diminish for the middle
of next week but it may not be dry after 1-2" of rain that is
expected over the burn area Sat-Tue.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers through the day. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (41300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........76     76     63     54     54     53
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40     40     40     40     40     40
Temp............52     54     60     64     66     66
RH..............100    100    93     81     73     70
20 ft wind......SE 7   SE 7   S 8    S 10   S 10   S 9
20 ft wind gust.13     13     16     17     17     17
Mix hgt (ft)....1400   1400   3400   3400   3800   3800
Transport wind..SE 12  SE 12  S 14   S 14   S 12   S 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18     18     41     41     41     41
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the evening, then slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 7 mph shifting to the east
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2300 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........51     51     46     43     43     38
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30     30     30     20     20     20
Temp............61     57     56     54     53     52
RH..............81     93     93     96     96     96
20 ft wind......S 7    S 7    SE 7   SE 7   SE 7   E 7
20 ft wind gust.12     12     13     13     13     13
Mix hgt (ft)....2500   2500   400    400    300    300
Transport wind..S 9    S 9    SE 9   SE 9   SE 9   SE 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..20     20     3      3      2      2
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 9 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 16 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 19 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (16800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (80200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........23        12        12        11
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        10        10
Temp............51        58        66        69
RH..............100       90        63        55
20 FT wind......SE 8G15   S 10G17   S 10G17   SW 9G17
Mix hgt (ft)....1700      1700      4700      4700
Transport wind..SE 10     SE 10     S 16      SW 19
Vrate kt-ft/1K..17        17        76        80
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      GOOD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs around 70. Southwest
winds around 6 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs around 70. Light
winds.

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...SILVER CITY DISPATCH
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2523252.0/EPZ
.DELDT 10/09/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL BENJAMIN.CRUM@USDA.GOV,DANIEL.LONDON@USDA.GOV,NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV