275
FNUS74 KEPZ 061844
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for D5 HWY-B Piles...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1144 AM MST Wed Nov 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MST on November 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low will be dropping out of the Four Corners region tonight
and slowly move across the area Thursday.  This will bring a chance for some
snow showers to the burn area.  It looks like the burn area will be near the
western edge of the precipitation band.  Winds will be shifting around on
Thursday from the south to the west as a Pacific cold front moves through.
As the system exits, skies will clear for Friday and temperatures will begin
to warm back up for the weekend.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of snow
                    showers early in the morning, then snow showers
                    likely in the late morning and early afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 42.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 4 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 16 mph shifting to the west around
                    10 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (41600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (72200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........70     72     72     64     51     51
Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE ISOLD
Weather type....SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).50     70     70     70     50     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............28     32     33     33     36     41
RH..............88     75     68     65     50     37
20 ft wind......S 7    S 8    S 8    SW 10  W 10   W 10
20 ft wind gust.13     16     16     17     17     17
Mix hgt (ft)....4400   4400   4400   5300   7300   6300
Transport wind..S 10   S 10   S 10   S 10   W 12   W 12
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..42     42     45     47     60     72
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   FAIR   VYGD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Isolated snow
                    showers through the night.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 21.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........55     55     53     56     56     54
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30     30     30     30     30     30
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............37     35     32     28     23     22
RH..............47     60     71     78     84     88
20 ft wind......NW 8   NW 8   NW 6   N 6    N 6    N 6
20 ft wind gust.15     15     12     9      9      9
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   1000   1100   1100   1100   1100
Transport wind..N 9    N 9    N 9    N 9    N 10   N 10
Haines index....3      3      3      3      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8      8      9      9      10     10
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (33400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (96200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........30        20        16        15
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............21        35        48        50
RH..............96        66        42        37
20 FT wind......NW 6G9    NW 6G9    NW 6G9    W 5G9
Mix hgt (ft)....2900      2900      6600      6400
Transport wind..N 12      N 12      NW 16     NW 14
Haines index....2         2         2         2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..33        33        96        96
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      GOOD

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Maurice Cruz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2425948.0/EPZ
.DELDT 11/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL maurice.cruz@usda.gov