022
FNUS74 KEPZ 141607
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Sixteen Springs RX...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
907 AM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MST on November 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Ridge of high pressure today will lead to generally quiet weather
with clear skies and light winds. Very dry conditions will be
present, however, with minimum RH values falling into the low
double and potentially single digits this afternoon in and around
the burn site. The ridge will begin breaking down tonight,
bringing stronger southwest winds amongst very dry conditions.
With minRH values near 10 percent and gusts around 25 mph in
unsheltered areas, elevated fire weather conditions will be
present in the afternoon. Chances for precipitation reenter the
forecast on Sunday, lasting through Monday morning.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Downslope winds becoming southwest around 7
to 10 mph after 1100 MST.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (60200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........2      2      4      6      6
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............51     63     69     69     59
RH..............20     13     12     12     19
20 ft wind......SW 8   SW 8   SW 8   SW 7   SW 7
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....800    4400   4400   4300   4300
Transport wind..W 8    SW 14  SW 14  SW 13  SW 13
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13     60     60     60     60
Ventrate Cat....POOR   GOOD   GOOD   FAIR   FAIR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........8      8      5      10     10     12
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............55     51     48     45     43     42
RH..............21     22     24     30     36     42
20 ft wind......W 7    W 7    SW 10  SW 10  SW 10  SW 11
20 ft wind gust.15     15     17     17     17     20
Mix hgt (ft)....500    500    500    500    500    500
Transport wind..SW 10  SW 10  SW 16  SW 16  SW 17  SW 17
Haines index....4      5      5      5      4      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5      5      8      8      8      8
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 16 mph with gusts around
25 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 20 mph increasing to 23 to 31
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (48600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (128600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........7         3         5         8
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............40        54        66        68
RH..............46        33        17        13
20 FT wind......SW 12G23  SW 15G28  SW 16G29  SW 14G28
Mix hgt (ft)....2200      2200      4400      4000
Transport wind..SW 20     SW 20     SW 31     SW 23
Haines index....3         4         5         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..49        49        129       96
Ventrate Cat....FAIR      FAIR      VYGD      GOOD

$$
Forecaster...BREITREITER
Requested by...Connor Staves
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2426571.0/EPZ
.DELDT 11/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmadc@firenet.gov