Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
753
FNUS74 KEPZ 041923
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Redstone RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
123 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on October 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure over the region will keep temperatures warmer
than normal, and conditions quite dry. This means minimum RH dropping
into the teens in the afternoon, with only moderate RH recover each
night into the 50 percent range. Chances for precipitation are zero
through at least Tuesday. So temps and rh are at elevated levels for
the season, but the high pressure will keep winds fairly light, with
directions variable and daytime speeds averaging 4-8 mph with gusts
12-15 mph. Ventilation will stay pretty good over the Gila region with
generally good or better afternoons.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....78-80.
Min humidity........13-16 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph
late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL increasing to 11200 ft AGL late in
the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the north 9
to 15 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (87400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (157300
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
Sky (%).........2 2 10 26 26
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1
Temp............57 68 75 79 78
RH..............47 29 20 14 15
20 ft wind......NE 3 NE 3 N 4 NW 5 NW 5
20 ft wind gust.9 9 14 16 16
Mix hgt (ft)....500 7900 7900 11200 11200
Transport wind..SE 6 N 9 N 9 N 15 N 15
Haines index....5 4 3 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 87 87 157 157
Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD GOOD EXNT EXNT
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
becoming light.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 9 mph shifting to the northeast
around 6 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........32 32 20 8 8 8
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............74 64 61 58 55 53
RH..............20 30 32 36 40 39
20 ft wind......S 5 S 5 SE 3 NE 3 NE 3 NE 4
20 ft wind gust.15 15 12 10 10 12
Mix hgt (ft)....4600 4600 300 300 300 300
Transport wind..S 9 S 9 S 7 S 7 NE 6 NE 6
Haines index....5 5 5 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..32 32 2 2 1 1
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....78-80.
Min humidity........11-14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 5 mph early in the
morning becoming light, then becoming southeast
around 5 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL increasing to 13600 ft AGL in the
late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (94600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........5 5 23 49
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............53 59 76 79
RH..............36 33 17 12
20 FT wind......NE 5G12 NE 3G10 NE 3G10 SE 5G15
Mix hgt (ft)....300 300 13000 13600
Transport wind..NE 9 NE 9 NE 9 NE 7
Haines index....4 4 5 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 3 95 88
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD
MONDAY VENTILATION FORECAST:
7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM
POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD GOOD POOR
TUESDAY VENTILATION FORECAST: (Conditions same as Monday)
7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM
POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD GOOD POOR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Southeast winds around 6 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the lower 70s. Southeast
winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs in the lower 70s. East winds
around 5 mph.
$$
Forecaster...BIRD
Requested by...GNF
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2423619.0/EPZ
.DELDT 10/04/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov