572
FNUS74 KEPZ 301751
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for BOX FIRE...BLM/SILVER CITY DISPATCH
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1151 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 MDT on June 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Another disturbance will be crossing the area this afternoon and evening
with thunderstorm coverage similar to yesterday.  Winds will remain low
end breezy through the day out of the east to southeast but decrease
tonight into Monday.  More storms are expected Monday, but through
the afternoon, the best coverage will remain west of the burn area.
Little change in the weather going into mid week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 2100, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 98.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East-southeast winds 10 to 16 mph with gusts
                    to 25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......9000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (108700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........10     20     40
Weather cov.....NONE   ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     20
LAL.............1      1      3
Temp............92     96     98
RH..............37     30     25
20 ft wind......E 12   SE 12  SE 14
20 ft wind gust.20     24     24
Mix hgt (ft)....8200   9000   9000
Transport wind..E 17   SE 15  SE 15
Haines index....3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..109    117    117
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   VYGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Showers
                    and thunderstorms likely in the evening, then
                    isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................5 until 2400, then 2.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 6 to 7 mph overnight. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 15 mph shifting to the west around
                    9 mph in the late evening and overnight, then
                    shifting to the east around 10 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (90700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........54     54     58     56     56     43
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).60     60     40     20     10     10
LAL.............5      5      4      2      2      2
Temp............93     86     81     78     76     74
RH..............29     40     49     56     60     64
20 ft wind......SE 14  SE 10  SE 8   NE 7   NE 7   NE 6
20 ft wind gust.22     18     13     12     12     8
Mix hgt (ft)....7000   7000   1000   1000   1200   1200
Transport wind..S 15   S 15   W 9    W 9    E 10   E 10
Haines index....3      3      3      3      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..91     91     6      6      10     10
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Isolated showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 97.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    south around 7 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 11 to 12 mph shifting to the south
                    around 12 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (22800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (103100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........30        17        28        30
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      ISOLTD
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         10        20
LAL.............1         1         1         2
Temp............73        83        91        96
RH..............66        47        36        27
20 FT wind......E 6G9     SE 8G13   SE 9G14   S 7G12
Mix hgt (ft)....2100      2100      7600      10300
Transport wind..E 11      E 11      S 12      S 12
Haines index....3         3         3         3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..23        23        76        103
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      VYGD

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...SILVER CITY DISPATCH
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416957.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV