037
FXUS64 KEPZ 161834
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1234 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Above average temperatures through Thursday. Record temperature
   today likely to be broken. Temperatures just a few degrees
   below normal this weekend.

 - Very dry conditions through much of the work week, low end
   rain/snow chances in the mountains this weekend. Low end rain
   chances west of the Divide on Saturday.

 - Winds will be breezy to windy each afternoon, with very windy
   conditions and blowing dust concerns on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Clear skies with patchy blowing dust have developed across
southern and southwestern NM this afternoon. Will continue to
monitor for the need of any Blowing Dust Advisories and/or Dust
Storm Warnings through this evening.

The pattern will continue to be active through this weekend.
Southwest flow aloft will increase today through Friday. This will
be in response to an upper level low off the southern coast of
California initially moving slowly east before merging with a fast
moving upper low from the Great Basin area by Thursday night. The
merged upper trough will then make its way through New Mexico
from Friday through Saturday. In response to the approach of this
system, a strong surface low is expected to develop in eastern CO
and western KS tomorrow. The increased surface pressure gradient
combined with good mixing into the mid levels will allow for winds
to increase into the 25 to 35 mph range, with gusts over 50 mph
for the lowland areas, and as high as 30 to 40 mph, with gusts
approaching 65 mph for the higher terrain areas of the Black/Gila,
and San Andres/Sacramento ranges. Thus, the Wind Advisories and
High Wind Warnings already issued for tomorrow will remain in
place. In addition to the winds, we will also have widespread
blowing dust, so the Blowing Dust Advisory will be maintained as
well. Some of the visibilities with the dust could be reduced to
less than a half mile at times, so Dust Storm Warnings may be
needed. In addition to the windy conditions, we will see a cooling
trend in temperatures through the end of the week as the upper
trough and lower heights approach.

Although there won`t be as strong of a surface pressure gradient
to work with on Friday, ample mixing will allow for another windy
day across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Southwest winds
in the 25 to 35 mph range with higher gusts are expected,
resulting in another round of blowing dust as well, with Blowing
Dust Advisories possibly needed Friday as well.

As the upper trough makes its way through the area Friday night
into Saturday, there will be a chance for precipitation, mainly
for the northern half of the area. There will even be a chance for
some mixed phases of precipitation in the highest elevations
where some sleet and/or snow could mix in with any rain that does
develop. The most likely timeframe for any precipitation will be
during the day Saturday. Temperatures will also be significantly
cooler Saturday with highs ranging from around 40 in the highest
elevations to the mid/upper 70s along the Rio Grande in Texas.

Following the passage of the upper level trough, zonal flow or
weak ridging is expected to develop aloft over the region. This is
expected to yield generally quieter weather, with winds in the 10
to 20 mph range, and a warming trend in temperatures. Highs by
the middle of next week should range from the mid 60s in the
higher elevations to upper 80s along the Rio Grande in Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions and clear skies are expected through midday
Thursday. However, short periods of MVFR to IFR visibility
conditions are expected from mid-afternoon through this evening,
due to blowing dust at the TAF sites near the International
Border. Carrying visibilities of 3SM at KELP, KLRU, and KDMN after
20-21Z, and will monitor satellite and observational trends and
amend as needed. Windy conditions are expected this afternoon
through the evening. Southwest winds will be 20-30 knots with
gusts to 35 knots. For tonight, southwest will decrease to 10-12
knots by 03Z. On Thursday, southwest winds will quickly increase
again by mid-morning, and anticipate gusts 30-35 knots after 17Z.
Further strengthening of winds is expected in the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Low Min RH values and windy conditions will continue to produce
critical to extreme fire weather conditions for areas west of the
Rio Grande, with elevated conditions elsewhere. The Red Flag
Warning will remain in effect through 8 pm for portions of
southwestern New Mexico. For Thursday, the Pacific storm system
mentioned above will bring critical to extreme fire weather
conditions areawide with southwest winds of 30 to 40 mph in the
lowlands and mountains with gusts to 65 mph in the mountains and
gusts up to 55 mph in the lowlands. The combination of Min RH
values at or below critical thresholds, windy to very windy
conditions, and very dry fuels will bring high end Red Flag
Warning conditions to the Borderland.

For Friday, a trough over the Great Basin will merge with the
system on Friday allowing for southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with
gusts to 40 mph leading to critical to extreme fire weather
conditions across the Borderland likely requiring additional fire
weather headlines on Friday.

Cooler temperatures, and the potential for precipitation Saturday
will bring some temporary relief to fire weather concerns to the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  64  90  62  81 /   0  10   0  10
Sierra Blanca            56  86  60  80 /   0  10  10  10
Las Cruces               52  85  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               56  86  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               45  62  38  53 /   0  10   0  10
Truth or Consequences    53  83  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              47  75  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   52  86  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                49  82  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       63  88  60  78 /   0  10   0  10
Dell City                55  89  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             59  94  62  86 /   0  10  10  10
Loma Linda               58  82  56  74 /   0  10   0  10
Fabens                   59  91  60  83 /   0  10   0  10
Santa Teresa             58  86  55  77 /   0  10   0  10
White Sands HQ           63  87  59  77 /   0  10   0  10
Jornada Range            54  85  51  76 /   0  10   0  10
Hatch                    56  87  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 57  87  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                56  85  54  76 /   0  10   0  10
Mayhill                  52  75  46  65 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero                49  73  42  63 /   0  10   0  10
Timberon                 45  72  40  63 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                  42  73  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                51  81  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                51  84  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             45  74  37  63 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   45  79  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    43  81  39  71 /   0   0   0  10
Mule Creek               46  74  37  65 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                  49  79  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   53  84  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  53  83  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           54  82  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               51  77  46  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
     056 Hudspeth County.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Eastern/Central
     El Paso County-Western El Paso County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Southwest
     Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest
     Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
     and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila
     NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for East
     Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black
     Range Foothills-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra
     County Lakes-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-
     Uplands of the Bootheel-West Central Tularosa Basin/White
     Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Lowlands of the
     Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Southeast
     Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
     Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest
     Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley.

     Blowing Dust Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for East
     Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
     Northern Dona Ana County-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern
     Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila
     River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
     Bootheel-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...99