Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
155 FXUS64 KEPZ 241136 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 536 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 529 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Dry conditions over the weekend and Monday. Slight chance of showers and storms over the Gila region mountains. - Moisture increases beginning Tuesday. Increased rain and storm chances Tuesday through Thursday. Storms may produce heavy rain and flash flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Upper high remains fixed over the Four Corners this weekend, with east flow aloft maintaining dry, continentally-sourced air across the El Paso region. Subsident flow within the 500 mb layer and precipitable water near 1.0" will greatly hinder storm chances again on Sunday and into Monday. Slight chance of very low coverage (10-20%) thunderstorms across Gila National Forest, but all other locations will remain dry through Monday. Winds out of the southeast tomorrow will again be low-end breezy, gusts 10 to 15 mph during the afternoon hours. Temperatures are running near normal, with lowland highs in the lower to mid 90s. Upper high makes an eastward progression starting next Tuesday, drifting over central Texas. The return of southerly flow aloft will reopen our tap of Baja moisture, bumping PWs up to 1.2-1.4" and revitalizing rain chances area wide. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected starting Tuesday afternoon, especially over the mountain zones and AZ/NM state line. Latest GFS model keeps much of the Rio Grande corridor dry until late Tuesday/early Wednesday morning. Rain chances will stick around Wednesday/Thursday. Trough off the Pacific coast assisting in storm chances Wednesday/Thursday may lead to better coverage. Both GFS and ECMWF models resolve a shortwave moving through the prevailing southwest flow aloft, subtle increases in wind shear and upper level lapse rates may result in a few strong to severe storms as well. Main threat will be flash flooding, however, with slow moving thunderstorms and the risk of back building over the same areas. Rain rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be enough to cause flooding almost anywhere, but especially over burn scars, urban areas, and flood-prone locations. Forecast confidence decreases Friday into next weekend, with models inconsistent on whether moisture will stick around under the upper high or be forced eastward due to stronger westerlies aloft. The future evolution of the low pressure system currently off the Pacific coast will be the determining factor for rain chances at the end of August. For now, slight chances remain in the forecast area wide in the extended period. We are also leaning toward temperatures near or below normal, which means lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s this time of year. For those keeping track, El Paso has had 35 100-degree days this year, way down from the past two summers (55 in 2024, all-time record 70 in 2023) and much closer to the climate average of 26 days. The average last 100-degree day has already passed for El Paso (August 17), and nothing in the extended forecast indicates a heat wave. We may be done with triple-digit temperatures this year as the monsoon wraps up in the coming weeks. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 VFR conditions through the period. Skies ranging from SKC to SCT120 this morning to SCT120 BKN180-220 this afternoon. Winds generally light in the 5-15kt range and favoring SE through S. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 529 AM MDT Sat Aug 24 2025 Continued dry pattern through Monday, though min RHs lowlands still only dipping about as low as 15%. Winds also will remain mostly light. So overall fire conditions remaining low. By Tuesday and then most of the rest of the week, significant moisture returns to the area with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday and Wednesday appear to have the highest moisture and thus flash flood potential will be highest then. Min RHs: Lowlands 15-23% through Monday, then increasing to 25-35% Tuesday through Thursday. Gila/Black Range Mtns 17-25% through Monday then 30-45% Tuesday through Thursday. Sacramento Mtns 25-40% through Monday, then 45-60-% Tuesday through Thursday. Vent rates good-very good through Tuesday, then poor-fair Wednesday and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 95 73 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 89 62 91 64 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 90 66 93 68 / 10 10 0 10 Alamogordo 90 69 93 69 / 10 10 0 10 Cloudcroft 67 49 70 50 / 10 10 20 10 Truth or Consequences 90 69 92 69 / 10 10 10 20 Silver City 86 64 87 64 / 20 20 20 20 Deming 94 67 96 69 / 10 10 0 10 Lordsburg 93 69 94 69 / 10 10 0 20 West El Paso Metro 91 72 94 74 / 0 10 0 0 Dell City 92 65 94 67 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 93 69 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 86 65 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 92 68 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 90 68 93 70 / 0 10 0 10 White Sands HQ 91 71 94 72 / 10 10 0 10 Jornada Range 90 67 92 70 / 10 10 0 10 Hatch 93 68 95 70 / 10 10 0 10 Columbus 93 68 94 70 / 0 10 0 10 Orogrande 90 66 91 69 / 10 10 0 0 Mayhill 80 55 81 54 / 20 10 20 10 Mescalero 79 54 81 55 / 20 10 20 10 Timberon 77 52 79 54 / 10 10 10 0 Winston 84 58 86 57 / 20 20 30 30 Hillsboro 91 65 92 64 / 10 10 10 20 Spaceport 90 67 91 67 / 10 10 0 10 Lake Roberts 86 59 87 58 / 30 20 40 30 Hurley 88 62 89 64 / 10 10 10 10 Cliff 93 67 94 66 / 20 20 20 20 Mule Creek 90 64 90 62 / 20 20 20 30 Faywood 87 65 89 65 / 10 10 10 10 Animas 94 66 95 67 / 10 10 10 20 Hachita 91 65 93 65 / 10 10 0 10 Antelope Wells 92 63 93 65 / 0 10 10 20 Cloverdale 88 63 89 62 / 0 10 10 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird