Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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923
FXUS64 KEPZ 081744
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1044 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1032 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025
- Cooling down continues, culminating in very chilly
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. Dangerous wind chill
temperatures Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
- Light snow is in the forecast for the desert lowlands and area
mountains Wednesday through Friday morning.
- Partial temperature recovery Saturday and Sunday, but highs still
below normal.
- Winter Storm warning in effect through 5am Friday for the
eastern and central Sacramento Mountains with snow fall totals
of 6 to 9 inches with localized amounts up to 11 inches.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2
Issued at 208 AM MDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Satellite this morning shows
initial upper low along the International Border along in
southwestern Arizona this morning. A moisture plum has overspread
the entire CWA with isolated snow showers seen on radar this morning
over the mountains this morning. Deterministic guidance this morning
shows low continuing to diving south into the Baja of Mexico then
shifting eastward across northwest Mexico today allowing for upper
diffluence allowing for scattered snow showers to develop. Latest
HREF/HRRR/RAP model runs show bouts of snow showers moving through
the lowlands after sunrise and continuing through the morning. The
CAMs then keep snow showers mainly south of the Border in New Mexico
with scattered snow showers continuing over El Paso into Hudspeth
and most of El Paso and far southern Otero county through this
afternoon. The upper low and better dynamics will shift of the
Border with deterministic guidance shows snowfall mainly south of
the International Border by tonight and continuing overnight.
Attention turns the the next system for Thursday night into Friday
morning. The secondary short wave will diving southward out of the
four corners region Wednesday night/Thursday morning. This
shortwave will bring another reinforcing shot of cold air to the
Borderland. Given the good forcing along the trough axis and
over central and eastern Sacramento Mountains will support heavy
snowfall Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. The NBM 48
hour snowfall in the 75th percentile showing eastern and central
slopes of the Sacramento Mountains with 6 to 9 inches of snow fall
with locally higher amounts up to 11 inches, while the 25th
percentile hovers right at criteria and elected to upgrade those
areas to a Winter Storm Warning in effect through 5am MST Friday.
Elsewhere, bouts of snow showers will around 1 to 3 inches of snow
to the lowlands and 3 to 5 inches of snowfall to the Gila and
Black ranges, thus a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
through 5 am MST on Friday. The trough will push out of the area
by Friday afternoon with snowfall ending over the Borderland with
skies clearing by Friday night.
For Saturday through the middle of next week, N to NW flow will
keep temperatures below normal through Sunday, then flow shifts to
the west with a warm advection bringing temperatures closer to
normal values around the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025
A heavy band of snow showers just moved through KLRU and is
heading towards KDMN in the next hour and then KTCS in a couple
hours. VIS is capable of dropping to 1/4SM at KDMN as it did in
KLRU. More uncertainty in VIS reductions for KTCS this afternoon
as the band is progged to weaken. Snow showers look to move into
the KELP area this evening, less likely for the other terminals.
The rest of the period should be clear of snow before the next
storm system moves in from the north near the end of the forecast.
CIGs will be mainly around 050, remaining BKN-OVC throughout.
Lower CIGs to near 010 are expected with heavier snow showers.
Amendments may be needed as we monitor radar trends. Breezy E-NE
winds linger early this afternoon outside of KLRU, gusting to
20-25kts. Lighter winds AOB 10kts take over during the afternoon,
continuing to subside through tonight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025
Fire weather concerns remain low through the period. Chilly
conditions with bouts of snow showers through Friday will keep
humidities high and winds will temper downward by this afternoon
across the area. Winds will light from this afternoon through the
end of the period. Temperatures will remain below normal through
the period but a subtle rebound of temperatures closer to normal
around the middle of next week. Min RH values will be about 40%
through Thursday, then upper 20s to lower 30s on Friday, then
upper teen to mid 20s in the lowlands and above 30 in the
mountains through the weekend. Vent rates will remain poor to fair
through the weekend.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 41 28 45 29 / 30 40 50 50
Sierra Blanca 33 20 43 23 / 30 50 40 50
Las Cruces 41 25 44 24 / 30 30 50 50
Alamogordo 41 22 41 16 / 20 20 60 50
Cloudcroft 29 15 28 6 / 20 20 60 50
Truth or Consequences 40 25 42 21 / 20 10 60 40
Silver City 39 21 40 16 / 30 20 50 50
Deming 41 21 44 21 / 30 20 50 50
Lordsburg 41 18 45 16 / 40 30 50 40
West El Paso Metro 40 29 44 30 / 30 40 50 50
Dell City 39 21 45 21 / 30 40 40 30
Fort Hancock 39 21 49 24 / 30 50 40 50
Loma Linda 33 23 38 23 / 30 40 50 50
Fabens 40 23 46 26 / 30 50 50 50
Santa Teresa 39 25 43 26 / 30 40 50 50
White Sands HQ 41 28 44 26 / 30 30 60 50
Jornada Range 41 23 43 18 / 30 20 60 50
Hatch 44 24 46 19 / 30 20 60 50
Columbus 39 24 46 25 / 40 30 50 50
Orogrande 40 25 41 21 / 30 30 60 50
Mayhill 33 18 40 9 / 20 20 60 40
Mescalero 37 15 35 7 / 20 10 60 50
Timberon 34 14 35 8 / 20 20 60 40
Winston 36 13 40 5 / 30 20 60 40
Hillsboro 39 21 43 18 / 30 20 60 50
Spaceport 42 21 43 16 / 20 20 60 40
Lake Roberts 43 20 42 14 / 30 20 50 50
Hurley 39 17 41 15 / 30 30 50 50
Cliff 51 8 49 4 / 30 20 50 40
Mule Creek 46 21 45 17 / 40 20 50 30
Faywood 38 22 42 19 / 30 20 50 50
Animas 40 18 48 20 / 40 40 50 40
Hachita 38 18 46 19 / 40 30 50 50
Antelope Wells 37 19 48 22 / 40 40 50 50
Cloverdale 34 21 42 24 / 40 50 50 50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 41 28 45 29 / 30 40 50 50
Sierra Blanca 33 20 43 23 / 30 50 40 50
Las Cruces 41 25 44 24 / 30 30 50 50
Alamogordo 41 22 41 16 / 20 20 60 50
Cloudcroft 29 15 28 6 / 20 20 60 50
Truth or Consequences 40 25 42 21 / 20 10 60 40
Silver City 39 21 40 16 / 30 20 50 50
Deming 41 21 44 21 / 30 20 50 50
Lordsburg 41 18 45 16 / 40 30 50 40
West El Paso Metro 40 29 44 30 / 30 40 50 50
Dell City 39 21 45 21 / 30 40 40 30
Fort Hancock 39 21 49 24 / 30 50 40 50
Loma Linda 33 23 38 23 / 30 40 50 50
Fabens 40 23 46 26 / 30 50 50 50
Santa Teresa 39 25 43 26 / 30 40 50 50
White Sands HQ 41 28 44 26 / 30 30 60 50
Jornada Range 41 23 43 18 / 30 20 60 50
Hatch 44 24 46 19 / 30 20 60 50
Columbus 39 24 46 25 / 40 30 50 50
Orogrande 40 25 41 21 / 30 30 60 50
Mayhill 33 18 40 9 / 20 20 60 40
Mescalero 37 15 35 7 / 20 10 60 50
Timberon 34 14 35 8 / 20 20 60 40
Winston 36 13 40 5 / 30 20 60 40
Hillsboro 39 21 43 18 / 30 20 60 50
Spaceport 42 21 43 16 / 20 20 60 40
Lake Roberts 43 20 42 14 / 30 20 50 50
Hurley 39 17 41 15 / 30 30 50 50
Cliff 51 8 49 4 / 30 20 50 40
Mule Creek 46 21 45 17 / 40 20 50 30
Faywood 38 22 42 19 / 30 20 50 50
Animas 40 18 48 20 / 40 40 50 40
Hachita 38 18 46 19 / 40 30 50 50
Antelope Wells 37 19 48 22 / 40 40 50 50
Cloverdale 34 21 42 24 / 40 50 50 50
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Western El Paso County.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Western El Paso County.
NM...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for Central
Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the
Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento
Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast
Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa
Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
7500 Feet.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest
Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres
Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West
Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento
Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for East Slopes
Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
Above 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson