Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
890 FXUS64 KEPZ 131129 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 529 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 526 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - Abundant moisture from tropical remnants will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Monday night. Storms may result in localized flooding. - Isolated thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by dry and temperate weather Thursday through the weekend. Near normal temperatures for mid-October. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Steady southwest flow over the region tonight with high pressure aloft over S TX and a Pacific low over the Pac NW diving down the west coast. Moisture from tropical remnants has resulted in two rainy days for S NM and W TX, and additional moisture transport out of Chihuahua overnight will lead to another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday. For tonight, scattered rain showers will move north out of the Mexico and bring additional rain to far W TX and the International Border of S NM. New rain amounts will be low (0.10-0.25") and overnight flooding is not expected. Another round of scattered to numerous (60-80% coverage) showers and thunderstorms expected Monday afternoon and evening as moisture remains high (precipitable water 1.2-1.4") and the atmosphere becomes weakly unstable with daytime heating. HRRR has been consistent keeping the majority of convective activity weak with minimal lightning early Monday afternoon, with only isolated storms along the AZ/NM state line. The best chance for storms along the Rio Grande may actually occur Monday night. The combination of low (tropically-influenced) rain rates and storm motion to the northeast at 25-35 mph will help reduce flooding threat. Still, localized flooding will be possible around stronger or training storms. In all, expect most rain totals over the next 48 hours to range from 0.25-0.75" with spotty higher amounts. Tropical remnants mostly exit by Tuesday, with a plume of moisture lingering along and east of the Rio Grande valley. Rain chances will lower but not completely gone Tuesday afternoon as storm coverage becomes more isolated (20-40%) focusing on Otero County and the Tularosa Basin vicinity. Same thing on Wednesday with even less storm coverage, limited to Otero County and E NM. Pacific low ejects across the northern Rockies on Thursday, flushing all moisture locally and beginning an extended period of dry and temperate weather. Weak Pacific front does cool temperatures down slightly, mostly normal for mid-October. Lowland highs generally in the upper 70s to 80 degrees late this week under dry, southwest flow. Dry weather likely hanging around into next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Hit and miss light showers are possible through around 18Z. Low CIGs expected through much of the morning hours. Expect generally MVFR to IFR conditions but could lower to LIFR conditions here and there. KDMN is currently seeing some FG limiting visibilities but should diminish soon, perhaps an hour or two after sunrise. After 18Z, expect more thunderstorm activity especially for sites like KTCS, KDMN, and KLRU but more showery activity expected for KELP this afternoon. Models are suggesting another round of thunderstorms coming in from northern Mexico spreading northward late this evening into the early hours Tuesday morning. Some storms could become strong. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Low fire danger for the week ahead as min RH values stay above critical thresholds and 20 foot wind speeds remain generally light (5-10 mph) each afternoon. Today will be the last day with good areawide rain chances. Expecting another round of rain this afternoon with locations west of the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) seeing more thunderstorm activity with greater potential for localized flooding due to bursts of heavy rain. More light rain/showery activity expected east of the RGV with rumbles of thunder embedded possible. East of the RGV could see this thunderstorm activity in the late evening Monday into early Tuesday. Tuesday will be the start of a drying pattern but thunderstorms are expected generally along the RGV late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Wednesday will feature low end rain chances (10-15%) focusing along the RGV and east. After Wednesday, dry conditions expected. Min RH values today will be 65-80% in the lowlands and 80-100% in the mountains but each day will continue to dry out with min RHs becoming 30-40% in the lowlands and 40-50% in the mountains by Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 64 84 65 86 / 60 20 30 0 Sierra Blanca 58 81 56 81 / 50 20 10 0 Las Cruces 60 79 60 81 / 60 20 40 10 Alamogordo 60 81 60 82 / 60 30 30 10 Cloudcroft 45 61 45 62 / 70 50 30 10 Truth or Consequences 58 77 59 79 / 50 20 30 0 Silver City 53 71 53 74 / 70 20 20 10 Deming 60 81 59 82 / 60 20 30 10 Lordsburg 58 77 58 80 / 50 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 64 81 65 84 / 60 20 30 0 Dell City 60 82 57 84 / 50 20 10 0 Fort Hancock 65 87 63 87 / 50 20 10 0 Loma Linda 58 76 57 77 / 60 20 20 0 Fabens 64 84 63 86 / 50 20 20 0 Santa Teresa 62 80 61 81 / 60 20 30 0 White Sands HQ 62 80 62 81 / 60 30 40 10 Jornada Range 60 78 59 81 / 60 30 40 10 Hatch 61 81 60 83 / 60 30 40 10 Columbus 60 80 61 83 / 50 10 20 10 Orogrande 59 79 59 81 / 70 30 30 10 Mayhill 51 71 49 72 / 70 50 20 10 Mescalero 49 72 49 74 / 70 50 30 10 Timberon 48 68 47 69 / 70 40 30 10 Winston 48 71 49 73 / 60 20 30 10 Hillsboro 55 76 55 79 / 60 20 30 10 Spaceport 58 77 57 79 / 60 30 40 10 Lake Roberts 49 73 50 75 / 70 20 20 10 Hurley 54 74 55 76 / 60 20 20 10 Cliff 56 79 55 81 / 70 10 10 0 Mule Creek 52 74 51 75 / 70 10 10 0 Faywood 56 73 56 75 / 60 20 30 10 Animas 57 79 57 81 / 40 0 0 0 Hachita 57 77 57 80 / 50 10 20 10 Antelope Wells 56 79 57 82 / 40 10 10 0 Cloverdale 56 73 54 75 / 50 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher