Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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FXUS64 KEPZ 061132
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
532 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025
- Cold morning with a moderate freeze.
- Dry and warming next week with near record high temps by late
week and generally light winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Yesterday`s storm system will drop south and shift east out of our
region through the morning hours today. Aloft we will come under a
deep and dry northerly flow in the transition zone between the
trough to our east and a building ridge to our west. Early on
today, we will keep some residual mid-level moisture with some
lingering clouds, and possibly (not likely) some light, brief,
isolated showers. However, most of us will be dry, with decreasing
clouds, and more sun through the morning. We start the day quite
cold, with morning lows well below the daily averages. This
afternoon will continue cooler than seasonal averages, but gain
nearly 10 degrees of warming over yesterday`s cold highs.
For the work week ahead, we see a ridge move in...flatten and pass
to our east...and another ridge replace it. All the while, the
storm track will stay well to our north. This means we will be in
a deeply dry west flow pattern that will make for a week of
warming and drying conditions. After a cool day today, we will see
temperatures rise back to normal Monday, and then well above for
the rest of the week. Even after a mild Thursday cool front
pushing in from the N/NE, we will continue quite warmer than
normal. The week`s winds will generally be light due to the high
pressure and light zonal flow aloft.
Our next chance of stronger winds comes next Sunday (day 7) when
the second ridge shifts east, as a broad west coast trough nudges
east into the Intermountain West. We could see some breezy to
moderately windy southwest winds Sunday afternoon if the pattern
holds.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025
VFR conditions through the period with skies FEW-SCT at 25 kft
through the day, with any clouds disipating through the aftn/eve
hours. Winds generally light at 5-10 knots and VRB.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Yesterday`s storm system will quickly exit the region today. We
will be under a much drier northerly flow on the back side of the
departing upper trough. With some residual mid-level moisture we
will still see some clouds, and possibly a stray light shower
across the region early today, but most of the region will be dry
and sunny. Winds will be lighter today. Temperatures will again be
cooler than normal, but warm a bit from yesterday. Relative
humidity will drop from yesterday`s very high minimums, but stay
high for the season, with minimum RH in the 25-35 percent range,
and higher.
For the week ahead we will see a pair of high pressure ridges
build and move over the region. Our weather will be fair and
persistent into next weekend. We will see rapid warming and
drying. Temperatures will warm to well above normal. Relative
Humidity will drop into the single-digits and teens. Thus will
will trend much warmer and drier, with conditions moving back
toward more typical spring fire season weather. However, with high
pressure over the region, winds will remain generally weak, with
daily speeds in the 5-15 mph range for the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 58 41 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 52 32 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 57 33 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 57 33 69 38 / 10 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 38 22 48 28 / 10 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 60 35 69 41 / 10 0 0 0
Silver City 57 33 67 38 / 10 0 0 0
Deming 61 33 72 38 / 10 0 0 0
Lordsburg 62 32 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 58 42 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 56 30 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 58 33 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 50 37 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 58 35 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 57 35 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 59 41 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 59 31 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 63 30 73 35 / 10 0 0 0
Columbus 60 36 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 55 33 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 49 28 58 32 / 10 0 0 0
Mescalero 49 25 59 32 / 10 0 0 0
Timberon 45 23 56 30 / 10 0 0 0
Winston 56 25 65 29 / 10 0 0 0
Hillsboro 60 33 70 37 / 10 0 0 0
Spaceport 60 29 70 35 / 10 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 58 28 68 35 / 10 0 0 0
Hurley 57 30 68 34 / 10 0 0 0
Cliff 64 29 75 34 / 10 0 0 0
Mule Creek 60 32 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 57 33 68 37 / 10 0 0 0
Animas 63 33 73 36 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 60 30 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 60 34 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 58 38 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for Eastern/Central
El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth
Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt
Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.
NM...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for East Central
Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern
Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast
Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest
Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White
Sands.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...14-Bird