757
FXUS64 KEPZ 042327
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
427 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 426 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures through Saturday.

- Unsettled weather makes its return Thursday with isolated to
  scattered rain showers into Saturday...snow showers over the
  high terrain of the Gila and Sacramento Mountains.

- Possibly the coldest air of the season moving in for early to
  middle part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

No major changes to this forecast package. Weak ridging over the
area is responsible for the dry weather and light winds. The weak
ridge will continue to slide off east into western central Texas
by Thursday. Attention turns to the weak low pressure system
currently located west-northwest of Las Vegas this afternoon.

Models show the weak low pressure system will move into Arizona
by tonight and meandering through southern Arizona through
Thursday. Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF and their ensemble
members, show the weak low pressure system moving into northern
Chihuahua close to the Arizona/New Mexico state line through
Saturday. As the weak low pressure system moves east along the
International Border, low level 700/850 flow will increase
Thursday night into Friday. Wind trajectories ahead of the weak
low pressures system will usher in modest moisture into the
Borderland, along with increasing dynamic flow aloft and PVA
leading to isolated to scattered showers on Thursday afternoon
through Friday in the Borderland. On Saturday, models both agree
the weak low pressure system will quickly move northeast into New
Mexico on Saturday. A quick glance at forecast soundings for
Saturday shows areas east of the Rio Grande with very little in
the way of CAPE and LI`s of 0 to 1 present during the afternoon
and early evening hours. There will be a low probability of a clap
of thunder on Saturday afternoon into the early evening. The
trough and low pressure system quickly move northeast into the
Great Plains by Sunday with dry air quickly moving into the area
behind the departing system. With regards to precipitation totals,
the latest run of the NBM shows medium chances( 40 to 60%) of
0.10 of an inch or more on Friday into Saturday with lower
probabilities elsewhere.

Dry weather is on tap from Sunday and Monday. For Tuesday, eyes
turn to another upper level system that will dive southeastward
out of Canadian providence of Alberta. By Monday, the trough axis
will push across the central Rockies and Great Basin. The
aforementioned trough will push southeast into the region by
Tuesday bringing a cold front into region. Timing of the cold air
and front remain uncertain but this looks to be the coldest air
of the season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 426 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR conditions expected with variable high clouds. Winds will
remain light and variable throughout the period with a direction
favoring from the north to east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1252 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

Benign weather and above average temperatures will prevail
through Thursday. A weak low pressure system will bring modest
moisture to the area Thursday afternoon through Saturday. Min RH
values on Thursday into Friday are expected to be at or above 40%
through Saturday. Vent rates will remain poor to fair through
Saturday. An upper level system will move into the area early next
week bringing in perhaps the coldest air of the season to the
Borderland.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  47  62  46  56 /   0  40  50  50
Sierra Blanca            41  55  41  51 /   0  10  60  40
Las Cruces               41  59  39  54 /   0  40  40  50
Alamogordo               36  59  37  55 /   0  30  20  30
Cloudcroft               27  41  25  38 /  10  50  30  60
Truth or Consequences    37  57  38  54 /   0  30  20  30
Silver City              37  57  36  52 /   0  40  40  50
Deming                   39  60  39  54 /   0  30  50  50
Lordsburg                34  62  38  56 /   0  20  40  40
West El Paso Metro       48  60  47  55 /   0  40  60  60
Dell City                39  58  40  54 /   0  10  30  30
Fort Hancock             41  63  44  59 /   0  20  60  40
Loma Linda               42  52  40  48 /   0  30  50  50
Fabens                   44  62  44  56 /   0  20  50  50
Santa Teresa             42  59  42  54 /   0  40  60  60
White Sands HQ           46  59  44  54 /   0  50  50  60
Jornada Range            36  59  39  54 /   0  50  30  50
Hatch                    36  62  39  56 /   0  40  30  40
Columbus                 41  60  42  54 /   0  20  60  60
Orogrande                40  57  40  53 /   0  50  30  50
Mayhill                  30  47  29  46 /   0  30  20  30
Mescalero                29  51  28  48 /  10  40  30  50
Timberon                 30  48  28  44 /   0  50  30  50
Winston                  26  53  27  48 /   0  20  20  30
Hillsboro                35  57  35  53 /   0  30  30  40
Spaceport                35  59  37  54 /   0  30  30  40
Lake Roberts             31  58  31  54 /  10  50  50  60
Hurley                   34  57  33  52 /   0  30  40  50
Cliff                    23  67  24  62 /   0  40  40  40
Mule Creek               33  61  33  56 /  10  30  40  40
Faywood                  38  57  37  51 /   0  40  40  40
Animas                   34  62  37  55 /   0  20  40  40
Hachita                  34  60  37  53 /   0  20  50  50
Antelope Wells           35  62  37  54 /   0  10  50  50
Cloverdale               39  59  38  51 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown