Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
456 FXUS64 KEPZ 211128 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 528 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 516 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - Moisture levels lower today, but we will still have enough moisture to fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorms for areas west of the Rio Grande. - For Thursday through Sunday, storm chances will be focused in the Gila Region with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. - Moisture back on the increase Monday, and Tuesday, with storm chances rebounding for the week. - Daily high temperatures will stay a few degrees above average through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1029 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025 A shift in the upper-level pattern will usher in drier air from the Central Plains for Thursday through the weekend. This will result in a significant decrease in the chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms. While some isolated storm activity is still expected, particularly in the higher elevations of the mountains, the desert lowlands will become increasingly dry. Temperatures will remain near-normal for this time of year, with highs generally in the mid to upper 90s. The threat for flash flooding will greatly diminish, but the possibility of gusty outflow winds from any isolated storms will increase thanks to the widening Td depressions. The drier pattern is expected to persist through the beginning of the next work week. The persistence of the Four Corners High will continue to suppress moisture and convection, shunting the monsoonal moisture to the Deep South. As a result, storm chances will be confined almost exclusively to the area mts, with very little to no activity in the desert lowlands. Temperatures will remain consistent with the seasonal normal. The air mass will remain relatively dry, and any lingering storm activity will be isolated in nature, with the primary threat being strong outflow winds. By the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, there may be a slight increase in moisture as the stubborn high dips towards TX, which could lead to an increase in thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 516 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Light and vrb winds and decreasing cloud cover through the morning hours. Drier air moving into the area will limit tstm coverage this afternoon, with isold development favoring the mts aft 18z, and the Gila region of SW NM in particular. Drier low level conditions could lead to sudden and strong downbursts near tstms in the aftn. Sely to ely sfc winds in the aftn are expected with gusts under 20 kts. This evening, between 03-06Z models suggest TSRA to track SW across KTCS (03Z) and KDMN (05Z), so later TAFs may include TEMPOs or PROB30s for storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1009 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025 We will see another day with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms today. Storms will develop first over area mountains and then move down into the lowlands. These storms could create strong and variable winds. Away from the storms, our winds will stay well below critical levels this afternoon through the weekend. Later tonight drier air will begin to push into the region. This drier air will reduce our rain chances for Thursday through Sunday. Best chances for rain after today will be in area mountains, mainly the Gila region. We may see no storms for the weekend. Min RH`s, as you might imagine, are headed lower. Min RH`s today will be at or above 25% across the area. We will slowly dry out, so that by Saturday min RH`s in the lowlands will be in the teens and in area mountains it will be in the 20`s. Min RH`s will be on the rise early next week as moisture and rain chances return to the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 96 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 89 62 90 61 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 92 67 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 92 67 92 67 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 70 48 70 48 / 10 0 10 0 Truth or Consequences 92 69 92 69 / 10 10 0 0 Silver City 87 63 87 63 / 40 20 20 10 Deming 96 69 96 67 / 10 10 0 0 Lordsburg 94 69 95 69 / 20 10 10 10 West El Paso Metro 93 73 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 92 66 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 93 69 94 69 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 86 64 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 92 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 92 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 93 72 93 71 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 91 68 92 67 / 10 10 0 0 Hatch 94 69 94 68 / 10 10 0 0 Columbus 94 70 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 90 66 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 80 53 81 53 / 10 0 10 0 Mescalero 82 53 82 53 / 10 0 10 0 Timberon 78 51 79 53 / 10 0 10 0 Winston 86 56 86 57 / 20 10 10 0 Hillsboro 92 64 92 64 / 20 10 10 0 Spaceport 92 67 93 66 / 10 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 88 57 88 57 / 50 20 30 10 Hurley 90 64 90 63 / 30 10 10 0 Cliff 94 66 95 65 / 50 20 20 10 Mule Creek 90 63 91 63 / 50 20 30 10 Faywood 89 64 89 64 / 20 10 10 0 Animas 95 67 95 66 / 10 10 0 0 Hachita 92 67 93 65 / 10 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 92 66 92 65 / 10 10 0 0 Cloverdale 89 65 88 64 / 10 10 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird