418
FXUS64 KEPZ 300830
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
230 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Unseasonably warm and dry weather will continue through the week
ahead and into the first week of October. Breezy east winds on
Tuesday will provide a brief cool down into Wednesday, but above
normal temperatures will remain in place through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...TODAY...
High pressure aloft over the Four Corners will maintain
seasonably warm weather across the forecast area today. There is
some modest moisture circulating under this suppressive upper high
with PWs 0.6-0.80" across much of western New Mexico. We should
see a few convective showers this afternoon over the high
elevations of the Gila Wilderness, with minimal coverage and
intensity. Elsewhere, dry weather will continue.

...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
Polar jet along the US/Canada border will begin to erode the
upper high early this week and form a more west-to- east Pacific
ridge across the US Southwest. At the same time, surface high over
the Central Plains will push a backdoor cool front into the area
Tuesday afternoon. Thermal surface low over Arizona will aid in
this front making it through the entire forecast area by Tuesday
night. Breezy east flow is expected throughout the day with gusts
to 25-35 mph through much of the afternoon and evening. Lighter
southeast flow gain on Wednesday. Temperatures will dip a few
degrees Tuesday/Wednesday following the passage of this boundary,
but likely remain above normal for the start of October given the
high pressure aloft and lack of thermal gradient behind the cold
front due to its non-polar sources.

...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
Dry and warm weather with few day-to-day changes will be the main
weather headline late this week into next weekend. Upper high
remains stagnant over the US Southwest and temperatures look to
stay 4 to 8 degrees above climate normals, which means lowland
highs 88-92F. No rain in the forecast at all through the first
half of October.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the period at all terminals.
Overnight, skies will be clear or mostly clear. Winds will be
light and variable. Aft 18z, expect FEW-SCT100-120 to develop,
especially over the Gila region, and area mtns. There are slight
chances for SHRA/TSRA over the Gila and Black Range, with a few
showers or weak storms in vcty of KTCS aft 22Z. Winds will favor
SE through SW and remain AOB 08KTS with occasional gusts to
15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Abnormally dry and warm weather continues on Monday with light
southwest winds. Good to Very Good smoke ventilation this
afternoon with RH 15-25% and temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer
than normal for the end of September. Fuels have shown steady
drying over the past few weeks with ERCs near seasonal max across
the GNF, LNF, and southwest lowlands. While rapid fire growth
isn`t expected, unexpected fire starts remain possible due to the
ongoing drought status.

Breezy east flow on Tuesday as a backdoor cold front arrives. Not
expecting any fire headlines but Elevated fire danger may occur
with afternoon wind gusts to 30 mph. Slight cooler temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday, though remaining warm. Very few day-to-
day weather changes the first week of October as dry and warm
weather remains in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  95  67  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            87  58  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               94  62  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               91  61  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               69  44  65  40 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    92  63  88  57 /   0  10   0   0
Silver City              87  60  84  54 /  10  10   0   0
Deming                   95  62  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                93  61  91  59 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       92  68  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                92  58  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             94  60  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               85  62  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   93  62  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             91  63  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           92  64  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            92  61  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    95  60  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 93  62  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                90  60  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  82  47  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                82  49  76  44 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 78  49  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  85  51  80  46 /  10  10   0   0
Hillsboro                92  59  87  54 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                92  59  88  54 /   0  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             87  52  83  48 /  20  10  10   0
Hurley                   90  59  86  52 /  10  10   0   0
Cliff                    96  54  94  49 /  10  10  10   0
Mule Creek               90  59  88  54 /  10  10  10   0
Faywood                  89  62  86  55 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   94  62  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  92  59  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           92  61  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               88  62  86  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt