423
FXUS64 KEPZ 301143
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
543 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Abundant moisture will persist across the Borderland for most of
this week. Expect scattered thunderstorms again this afternoon
and evening, with strong gusty winds and local flooding possible.
For Monday and Tuesday, thunderstorms will continue although the
best chances for storms will shift out to about Deming west. The
moisture plume shifts back over the entire area Wednesday for an
increase in thunderstorm activity. Temperatures today will remain
hot, but then lower a few degrees for much of the week ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

WV imagery shows upper high still parked over NE Texas. Main
moisture plume has shifted west of the Cont Divide and into
Arizona. It appears last night`s activity may have developed from
a weak easterly wave aloft coinciding with low level east surge.
This led to late activity in what was otherwise the drier moisture
slot. First look would suggest better chances of storms over the
western third of the CWA, but models are showing another low level
easterly surge this evening over the eastern CWA. Since this
feature is a bit later than Saturday`s feature, we won`t have the
daytime heating, but this will still have to be watched. PWs are
down a bit from yesterday, but still show decent flooding
potential, especially west. And like yesterday, wet microbursts
could lead to very strong wind gusts.

Monday through Wednesday...models have been pretty consistent with
this period, showing moisture plume shifting west Monday/Tuesday
for scattered thunderstorms, with just a chance of thunderstorms
to the east. By Wednesday Polar jet deposits trough into the col
area between the east Pacific high and the SE US high. This should
give us a decent uptick in thunderstorms all areas.

Thursday through Saturday...this period remains a bit volatile
with the model solution. GFS shows drier air moving in with
northwest flow around the east Pacific high. This would suggest a
decrease in thunderstorm activity Thursday/Friday. Then GFS forms
a weak low in the col area over the Sonoran Desert Saturday with
some convection over Mexico advecting in. ECMWF remains much drier
for all three days. Both models have significant differences in
handling the path of Beryl which may be contributing to the
differences over our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions with SKC-FEW120 FEW250. Developing after
18Z...scattered BKN080CB -TSRA mainly over the mountains but
spreading to the lowlands after 21Z. Gusty winds to 55 knots and
small hail possible with these storms. Thunderstorms mostly ending
by around 08Z. TAF sites KELP/KLRU could see a thunderstorm but
chances are too small to mention in TAFS at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

As has been the case over the past week or so, the main threat for
the fire zones (mainly the Sacs burn scars) will be heavy rainfall
and flash flooding. Fire development and growth potential should
remain low through the period. Storms today could produce strong
and erratic winds in their vicinity. The week ahead does not show
much of any significant non-thunderstorm winds. Expect larger
scale wind shifts Wednesday (north) and Friday (east).

Min RH: Lowlands 20-25% through Tuesday, then 25-30% Wednesday.
Mountains 25-35% Gila through Tuesday, then 35% Wednesday;
Sacramentos 30-40% through Tuesday, then 45% Wednesday. Vent rates
very good-excellent today and Monday, then fair-good Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 103  81 101  81 /  20  50  10  20
Sierra Blanca            95  69  94  72 /  20  20  10  10
Las Cruces              100  74  99  75 /  20  60  20  20
Alamogordo               97  70  96  70 /  20  40  10  20
Cloudcroft               78  53  75  55 /  30  30  30  20
Truth or Consequences    96  73  94  73 /  20  60  40  30
Silver City              91  66  88  66 /  40  80  60  30
Deming                   99  72  96  71 /  30  80  30  30
Lordsburg                98  71  94  70 /  40  90  50  30
West El Paso Metro      100  78  97  80 /  20  50  10  20
Dell City                99  72  98  73 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Hancock            102  74 101  76 /  20  30  10  20
Loma Linda               94  70  91  73 /  20  30  10  20
Fabens                  101  76 100  78 /  20  30  10  20
Santa Teresa             99  74  97  75 /  20  60  20  20
White Sands HQ           97  76  96  78 /  20  50  20  20
Jornada Range            97  71  95  70 /  20  60  20  20
Hatch                    99  71  97  71 /  20  60  30  20
Columbus                 98  73  96  75 /  30  80  20  30
Orogrande                97  73  96  73 /  20  30  10  20
Mayhill                  88  58  86  59 /  30  20  30  20
Mescalero                89  58  85  59 /  30  30  30  20
Timberon                 86  55  84  58 /  20  20  20  20
Winston                  88  61  85  60 /  30  70  70  40
Hillsboro                93  68  91  69 /  30  70  60  30
Spaceport                96  68  94  68 /  20  60  30  20
Lake Roberts             92  62  87  63 /  40  80  70  40
Hurley                   94  66  91  65 /  30  80  50  30
Cliff                   100  67  96  67 /  30  80  60  30
Mule Creek               94  63  89  64 /  40  80  70  30
Faywood                  92  68  89  68 /  30  80  50  30
Animas                   98  69  94  70 /  50  80  50  30
Hachita                  97  69  95  69 /  40  80  40  30
Antelope Wells           96  68  94  69 /  70  90  50  40
Cloverdale               91  66  89  67 /  60  80  50  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for TXZ418-419-
     423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ407-410-
     411-427>429.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner