Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
137 FXUS64 KEPZ 130504 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1104 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Abundant moisture from tropical remnants will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Monday night. Storms may result in localized flooding. - Isolated thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by dry and temperate weather Thursday through the weekend. Near normal temperatures for mid-October. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Steady southwest flow over the region tonight with high pressure aloft over S TX and a Pacific low over the Pac NW diving down the west coast. Moisture from tropical remnants has resulted in two rainy days for S NM and W TX, and additional moisture transport out of Chihuahua overnight will lead to another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday. For tonight, scattered rain showers will move north out of the Mexico and bring additional rain to far W TX and the International Border of S NM. New rain amounts will be low (0.10-0.25") and overnight flooding is not expected. Another round of scattered to numerous (60-80% coverage) showers and thunderstorms expected Monday afternoon and evening as moisture remains high (precipitable water 1.2-1.4") and the atmosphere becomes weakly unstable with daytime heating. HRRR has been consistent keeping the majority of convective activity weak with minimal lightning early Monday afternoon, with only isolated storms along the AZ/NM state line. The best chance for storms along the Rio Grande may actually occur Monday night. The combination of low (tropically-influenced) rain rates and storm motion to the northeast at 25-35 mph will help reduce flooding threat. Still, localized flooding will be possible around stronger or training storms. In all, expect most rain totals over the next 48 hours to range from 0.25-0.75" with spotty higher amounts. Tropical remnants mostly exit by Tuesday, with a plume of moisture lingering along and east of the Rio Grande valley. Rain chances will lower but not completely gone Tuesday afternoon as storm coverage becomes more isolated (20-40%) focusing on Otero County and the Tularosa Basin vicinity. Same thing on Wednesday with even less storm coverage, limited to Otero County and E NM. Pacific low ejects across the northern Rockies on Thursday, flushing all moisture locally and beginning an extended period of dry and temperate weather. Weak Pacific front does cool temperatures down slightly, mostly normal for mid-October. Lowland highs generally in the upper 70s to 80 degrees late this week under dry, southwest flow. Dry weather likely hanging around into next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Scattered SHRA overnight and through the day on Monday for KELP and S NM sites. Prevailing ceilings BKN-OVC100. Temporary IFR CIGs possible overnight with SCT-BKN010 due to rain. Visibility remaining mostly above 6SM, with temporary drops to 3SM due to rain. NM sites likely remaining drier overnight, then VCSH Monday morning. Rain chances will continue through the day Monday with temporary MVFR conditions due to rain. Prevailing surface winds 150-180 at 05-10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 No fire concerns for this week ahead. Tropical moisture will continue to produce showers tonight and Monday, with a few areas of flooding possible. Tuesday and Wednesday begin a drying process, though some showers still possible from the Rio Grande Valley east. Rain chances end all areas on Thursday into next weekend. Temperatures remaining at or below normal for the entire period. Min RH: Lowlands 50-70% Monday and Tuesday, decreasing to 25-40% Wednesday through Friday. Mountains 60-80% Monday and Tuesday, decreasing to 25-40% Wednesday through Friday. Vent rates mostly poor Monday, becoming fair-good Tuesday through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 78 64 84 65 / 80 80 60 60 Sierra Blanca 76 58 81 56 / 80 100 60 50 Las Cruces 73 60 79 60 / 80 70 60 60 Alamogordo 75 60 81 60 / 50 50 60 60 Cloudcroft 57 45 61 45 / 50 50 60 70 Truth or Consequences 72 58 77 59 / 30 40 60 50 Silver City 66 53 71 53 / 60 60 80 70 Deming 75 60 81 59 / 70 70 80 60 Lordsburg 73 58 77 58 / 70 60 80 50 West El Paso Metro 75 64 81 65 / 90 80 60 60 Dell City 77 60 82 57 / 60 90 60 50 Fort Hancock 81 65 87 63 / 80 100 60 50 Loma Linda 70 58 76 57 / 80 90 60 60 Fabens 78 64 84 63 / 80 90 70 50 Santa Teresa 73 62 80 61 / 90 80 60 60 White Sands HQ 75 62 80 62 / 80 70 60 60 Jornada Range 73 60 78 59 / 70 60 60 60 Hatch 76 61 81 60 / 50 50 70 60 Columbus 76 60 80 61 / 90 80 70 50 Orogrande 73 59 79 59 / 70 70 60 70 Mayhill 66 51 71 49 / 50 50 60 70 Mescalero 68 49 72 49 / 50 50 60 70 Timberon 64 48 68 47 / 50 60 60 70 Winston 66 48 71 49 / 40 40 70 60 Hillsboro 71 55 76 55 / 40 50 70 60 Spaceport 73 58 77 57 / 40 40 70 60 Lake Roberts 68 49 73 50 / 50 60 80 70 Hurley 68 54 74 55 / 60 60 80 60 Cliff 73 56 79 55 / 50 60 80 70 Mule Creek 71 52 74 51 / 60 70 90 70 Faywood 68 56 73 56 / 60 60 80 60 Animas 74 57 79 57 / 80 70 70 40 Hachita 73 57 77 57 / 80 80 80 50 Antelope Wells 74 56 79 57 / 90 80 60 40 Cloverdale 68 56 73 54 / 90 90 80 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt