219
FXUS64 KEPZ 162325
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
525 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Breezy Saturday, then windy again Sunday/Monday with widespread
   blowing dust and critical fire danger.

 - Dry weather through the week ahead as lowland temperatures warm to
   the mid-to-upper nineties by Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025

The windy season is about to have its last hoorah in the form of
an upper trough swinging into the Great Basin/central Rockies this
weekend. Before it impacts us Sun/Mon, a weak cut-off low off the
Baja gets swept up into the synoptic flow and brings us more
high-level moisture for Saturday. Cloud cover looks to thicken a
bit by the AM ahead of the shortwave with a few virga showers
possible. The low levels will be way too dry for any precip to
reach the ground before the trough exits to the east tomorrow
afternoon. The shortwave induces a modest lee cyclone around NE NM
for the afternoon, allowing for breezy PM winds from the SW with
gusts to around 35 mph and patchy BLDU along the Int`l border into
the evening.

For Sunday, a strong upper trough digs into the Four Corners,
resulting in a 990-ish mb low in SE CO at 0z Mon. Lee troughing
develops across NM Sunday afternoon with 850mb winds of 25-35kts.
A breezy/windy afternoon is expected along with areas of blowing
dust downstream (E-NE) of dust sources. Blowing Dust Advisories
may be needed for Sunday for much of the lowlands due to the
favorable wind direction and strong enough winds. A few gusts to
50 mph can be seen in area mountains and east slopes on Sunday,
but not consistent or widespread enough to warrant any wind
advisories at this time.

On Monday, another shortwave looks to slide in from the west
behind the first one, bringing a Pacific cold front with it.
Temperatures won`t fall that much behind the boundary, but winds
will be as strong or stronger compared to Sunday and shift
westerly. The GFS is slower with the front compared to the Euro
and its AI model which bring the front through by noon Monday. The
GFS has the frontal passage Monday evening, so we still have to
iron out specifics in terms of dust potential, wind direction,
fire danger, etc. As of now, W winds of 25-35 mph are forecast
with gusts to 50 mph for most areas on Monday. Wind Advisories are
most favored to be issued for area mtns and east slopes (medium
chance of issuance). Areas of blowing dust and reduced VIS are
concerns as well with more potential Blowing Dust Advisories Mon.

The system quickly ejects to the east Monday night, allowing more
tranquil weather to return for the rest of the period. Lighter
winds and slightly below normal temps are expected into the middle
of next week. Precip chances remain near zero, although some
models are hinting at a little cut-off low near the Baja picking
up some moisture from the Gulf around midweek. Chances of this
seem slim at the moment with the more likely scenario being an
upper ridge developing over the Desert SW and heating us up late
in the week. Highs approach 100 for KELP beginning on Thursday
(55% chance) and continue into next weekend. To put it into
context, the average first triple digit day for El Paso is May
31st, so we`d be about a week early compared to the 1991-2020
normal if we hit 100 in this upcoming stretch. Winds will be
light to modestly breezy from Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SCT-BKN at
25 kft. Winds breezy out of the W/SW at 8-15 knots with gusts to
25 knots. Winds will gradually decrease after 03Z, becoming light
at 5-10 knots. Winds increase late morning and afternoon hours
tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025

Worsening fire weather conditions are expected through the
weekend. Modestly breezy winds continue into this evening from the
southwest, creating some elevated fire danger. For Saturday,
winds begin to increase from the southwest with continued dry
conditions, resulting in elevated to critical fire danger. Red
Flag Warnings have been issued for south-central NM for Saturday
afternoon due to 20-ft winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Windy conditions are forecast Sunday and Monday as an upper-level
system pushes into the Rockies, creating significant lee-side
troughing along the Southern High Plains. Widespread critical to
extreme fire danger is expected Sunday with lower confidence for
Monday due to the timing of the Pacific cold front. Although winds
will remain quite strong for Monday, shifting westerly, the
frontal passage could raise RHs to near or even above critical
levels if it`s fast enough. Fire Wx Watches remain in effect
area-wide for Sunday with an upgrade expected within the next 24
hours. Depending on the timing of the front, Monday could follow
suit. Typical afternoon breeziness is expected after Monday with
low surface moisture content, resulting in elevated fire danger.
Fuels will continue to dry this weekend under warm, southwesterly
flow with ERCs near or above 90th percentile. Overnight
recoveries will be poor through Saturday night, becoming fair to
good early next week. Temperatures will be near or below normal
through early next week with no threat of rain.

Min RHs range from 5-12% with the mountains at 12-20% on Monday
due to the cold front. Vent rates will be excellent through
Monday, then good to very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  66  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            61  87  56  87 /   0  10   0   0
Las Cruces               56  86  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               59  86  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               46  62  42  61 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    56  84  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              50  77  46  74 /   0  10   0   0
Deming                   55  87  50  87 /   0  10   0   0
Lordsburg                53  84  47  82 /   0  10   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  88  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                60  90  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             64  95  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               61  82  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   64  92  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             61  87  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           66  87  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            56  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    57  87  51  86 /   0  10   0   0
Columbus                 61  88  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                59  85  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  51  74  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                49  73  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 46  71  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  43  75  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                52  82  48  80 /   0  10   0   0
Spaceport                52  84  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             45  77  42  74 /   0  10   0   0
Hurley                   48  80  44  78 /   0  10   0   0
Cliff                    47  83  44  81 /   0  10   0   0
Mule Creek               46  79  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  52  79  47  77 /   0  10   0   0
Animas                   53  85  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  54  84  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           53  84  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               53  78  48  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South
     Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
     Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Saturday for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers