311
FXUS64 KEPZ 052322
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
522 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Near record warm this expected for Sunday with a very minor cool
down for the rest of the week with no chance for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

There really isn`t much to write for this discussion. UL ridge
anchored over the Desert SW will remain quasi-stationary
throughout the entire period, centered near the AZ-NM state line.
A weak cold front will swing through the CWA tomorrow, which will
reduce our highs a few degrees after a near-record day on Sunday.
Temps hold steady on southerly flow for the work week. Late in
the period, Friday+, a trough will begin to deepen along the West
Coast. The GFS and Euro drag this trough across the Desert SW over
the weekend, but cluster analysis shows a weaker and slower
trough progression, much more in line with what the 00z Euro had,
which showed the ridge remaining in place into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 439 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions expected to persist through the period. Winds will
be variable at times AOB 10 knots but flow will be predominately
from the south.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Very dry and warm conditions will be in place for Sunday. Highs
will approach record levels while min RH values drop to near 10%.
Winds will also be somewhat breezy, topping out 10 to 15 MPH in
the afternoon, leading to elevated to near critical conditions. We
will remain warm and dry well into next week. Venting will range
good to very good for Sunday, decreasing to fair to good on
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  63  94  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            56  86  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               58  91  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               58  91  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               45  68  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    57  89  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              57  86  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   55  92  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                56  91  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  91  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                54  90  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             58  94  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               59  84  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   58  93  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             58  90  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           64  91  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            57  91  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    55  94  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 59  91  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                57  89  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  51  76  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                49  79  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 48  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  48  82  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                57  89  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                53  91  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             49  86  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   53  89  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    48  95  49  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               55  89  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  58  88  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   57  92  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  55  91  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           57  91  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               59  88  57  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...41-Kelly