Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
067 FXUS64 KEPZ 301741 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1041 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1041 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Dry conditions, gentle warming, and afternoon breezes through midweek. - A storm system brings a low to medium chance of lowland rain and mountain snow showers going into Thursday. - Dry and breezy conditions will return going into Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1041 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025 Several passing troughs over the upcoming week which will bring some fluctuations in temperatures but nothing too extreme and a possibility of some precip Wed night into Thu. Overall the models are in agreement with this synoptic setup but are having issues with the midweek positively tilted trough moving through the Four Corners region. The first trough will move through tonight and Monday and shift winds around to the west/northwest. This will allow temperatures to start rebounding for Monday with highs expected to warm about 5-10 degrees from the highs today. Westerly flow going into Tue and Wed will keep highs consistent with occasional breezy periods. Lighter winds Tue morning with some drier air in place could lead to some areas that haven`t seen a freeze yet to get there. It will be close around Las Cruces and the outlying areas of El Paso. The main system of impact will be developing late Wed into Thu. Models had been coming together on this and tapping some modest subtropical moisture. My confidence isn`t too high in this scenario without the trough digging further south. Latest GFS is trending drier along with it`s ensemble mean. Right now lowered NBM PoPs about 5-10 percent with this trend and will let later shifts see if this continues. Any precip on the lowlands will remain rain with a rain/snow mix in the mountains. After the trough passes, we go back into a zonal flow with temperatures returning to near average with occasional breezes once again. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025 P6SM FEW-SCT150-200 SCT-BKN200-250 through the period. Winds will be a little gusty out of the south east of the Divide through sunset with gusts over 20KTS possible. Winds will be shifting to the west to northwest through the overnight hours and remain generally AOB 12KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1041 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025 Dry with some occasional breezy conditions are expected through midweek. The windiest days look to be Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal and RH`s above 20 percent. An upper trough will move through late Wednesday into Thursday and could bring some light precipitation to the area but the amount of moisture available is in question. Vent rates the next couple of days will be fair to good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 42 64 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 34 61 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 36 61 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 36 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 28 37 22 41 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 35 56 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 35 54 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 35 63 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 35 61 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 39 62 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 29 63 26 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 38 67 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 38 56 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 39 65 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 36 62 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 40 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 32 59 23 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 33 63 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 39 64 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 33 58 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 32 51 23 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 30 48 23 52 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 26 48 21 50 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 28 51 22 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 35 58 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 30 57 24 61 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 24 53 20 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 33 56 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 28 57 25 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 26 56 21 57 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 33 56 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 35 62 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 36 61 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 37 64 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 37 57 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz