699
FXUS64 KEPZ 272316
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
516 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 238 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

 - Isolated showers/thunderstorms, mainly from the Rio Grande
   Valley east.

 - Windy and near-critical to critical fire conditions return to
   the forecast on Friday through Sunday.

 - Above average temperatures will persist through the weekend and
   into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Weak convection has been more terrain-based today, and is
struggling as it works into a less favorable environment in the
lowlands. Slightly higher instability lurks across Otero and
Hudspeth Counties where dewpoints managed to hang on to the
upper-30s to mid-40s even before outflow modified surface
conditions a bit. Expect some gusty winds will exist in these
areas given DCAPE values around 1000 J/Kg... highly isolated gusts
to 50 mph are not out of the question, but gusts 25 to 35 mph will
be common across a broader area as outflow spreads about into the
evening hours. Some gusty, worn-out outflow with suspended dust
could work into east El Paso this evening, but with the focus of
convection on both sides of the border having shifted to the east
today, our more notorious dust sources won`t be tapped.

The broad and sloppy upper level trough that helped produce our
convective detour in an otherwise dry and dusty spring will
continue to pull east of the area tomorrow. Increasing westerly
flow will persist through the weekend, with a few embedded
shortwave troughs passing through.

The first shortwave will be ill-timed, perhaps helping to boost
winds very late Friday afternoon before it passes through during
the overnight hours. A weaker wave will follow on its heels
Saturday afternoon, boosting winds enough for critical fire
weather condition, but falling short of wind headline criteria as
winds aloft only get up to around 35-40 knots at the top of the
mixing layer. Patchy blowing dust is still likely, with some
localized areas seeing denser dust nearest to source regions.

Quasi-zonal flow will persist Sunday through at least mid-week,
keeping afternoons breezy, warm, and dry.

Temperatures will be on sort of a kiddie-coaster...climbing to
mid to upper-80s in the lowlands on Friday, then sliding back
down to the lower 80s Saturday and Sunday, then a slow climb back
to the mid/upper-80s by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Outflow from nearby SHRA will bring low-end gusts to KELP and S
NM sites next couple hours. Peak gusts 30 knots. Showers expected
to diminish by sunset, with light surface flow AOB 06 knots after
04Z. Skies also clearing overnight. Winds increasing again Friday
afternoon, generally 240-260 at 15G25KT and skies FEW-SCT250.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Weak convection continues to slowly spread out of the higher
terrain towards a generally less favorable environment in the
lowlands. Several lightning strikes have occurred in both the
the Gila and Sacramento/Capitan zones, though the risk for
additional lightning in those areas has diminished as the focus
for thunderstorms shifts towards desert mountain ranges east of
the Rio Grande.

West winds will increase Friday through Monday as RH values,
bringing elevated to critical fire weather conditions to the
area, with Saturday the most favored for critical conditions.
While in the bigger picture, the winds will not be extreme,
they will be enough to potentially spread any new fires that
may have resulted from recent lightning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  53  86  56  81 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            46  81  49  80 /  30   0   0   0
Las Cruces               47  83  48  77 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               47  83  49  76 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               38  60  39  53 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    49  83  48  76 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              46  73  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   47  84  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                45  81  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       54  84  56  80 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City                45  85  51  82 /  30   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             48  88  50  85 /  20   0   0   0
Loma Linda               50  78  50  75 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   50  86  53  83 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             48  83  52  79 /  10   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           55  84  56  78 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range            46  83  48  77 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    45  85  48  79 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 52  85  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                47  82  50  77 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  42  73  45  65 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero                40  70  42  63 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 38  70  39  63 /  20   0   0   0
Winston                  37  73  35  66 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                47  80  45  72 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                44  83  45  75 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             42  72  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   42  77  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    40  80  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               44  74  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  47  77  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   45  83  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  45  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           47  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               48  75  45  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County-
     Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ-
      South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
     Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
     BLM/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt