461
FXUS64 KEPZ 170549
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1149 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1045 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

 - Generally quiet weather will prevail through the weekend, with
   temperatures running 5 to 8 degrees above average, with some
   minor variations.

 - It`ll be somewhat breezy again Friday afternoon, with a few
   gusts around 25 to 30 mph.

 - There is just the slightest chance of showers and thunderstorms
   late Tuesday into Wednesday in southwest New Mexico, as an
   upper level trough moving to our northwest may try to pull up a
   little bit of Pacific moisture.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Much drier air aloft has worked into the area ahead of a sharp
trough extending from the Northern Plains into southern
California. 00Z RAOB shows PWAT value of 0.48 inches, nearly half
of what it was 24 hours ago. Yet, we still are hanging on to some
residual low level moisture, mainly along the International Border
into Hudspeth County, where dewpoints remain in the 40s to lower
50s, while 30s have worked in further north. This drying trend
will continue.

The upper level trough will slowly approach tomorrow, and we`ll
see another slightly breezy afternoon as weak lee troughing
develops over Texas Panhandle. A few gusts around 25-30 mph will
be possible during the afternoon.

The trough itself will pass by Friday night with little fanfare
and definitely no precip. Ridging will try to build in Sunday but
will flatten out Monday as a shortwave trough passes over the
northern Rockies. The ridge will amplify again Tuesday into
Wednesday. This will bring some minor fluctuations in afternoon
temperatures, ranging from the lower 80s in the lowlands Friday
and Saturday, upper-80s by Monday, with a brief dip into the lower
80s again Tuesday, followed by a slow climb back into the mid-80s
to end the week. All in all, highs will run about 5 to 10 degrees
above normal.

Another shortwave trough will roll into southern California
Tuesday, passing through the Great Basin Wednesday. A slight boost
of moisture will get pulled up ahead of it from the Pacific. This
will bring just the slightest chance of a shower or thunderstorm
to SW New Mexico mid-week. But, overall, it`s looking very much
like the start of our drier season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected through the
period. Winds will continue to diminish overnight and trend
towards drainage flows in the predawn hours. By Friday afternoon,
winds will be W to WSW again, around 12-16 knots,with a few gusts
20-24 knots around 20-24Z, then becoming light after sunset again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Drying trend will take place through the weekend as dry southwest to
westerly flow aloft develops over the Desert Southwest. As a result
afternoon Min RH values will continue trend down with Min RH values
dropping to around 20 percent by the weekend. West to southwest
winds will prevail through the weekend, becoming breezy but staying
below critical thresholds. Temperatures each afternoon will top out
around seasonal values for mid-October with smoke ventilation values
fair to good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  81  56  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            78  51  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               75  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               76  49  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               55  35  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    74  47  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              67  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   77  46  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                72  47  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       77  55  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                81  51  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             83  57  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               72  49  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   80  55  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             76  51  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           77  52  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            74  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    77  46  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 78  50  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                75  48  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  68  42  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                67  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 64  39  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  67  36  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                74  44  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                74  44  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             67  35  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   70  42  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    73  42  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               68  36  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  69  44  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   74  47  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  74  46  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           74  47  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               67  46  71  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...25-Hardiman