Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
274 FXUS64 KEPZ 241750 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1150 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1127 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Mainly dry conditions through Monday. Slight chance of showers and storms over the Gila Region mountains. - Moisture increases beginning Tuesday. Increased rain and storm chances Tuesday through Thursday. Storms may produce heavy rain and flash flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Mainly dry conditions persist for the next couple days across the region as the upper high shifts to the southeast into Texas. The best moisture will remain over northern areas closer to the high this afternoon, allowing for isolated showers and storms, favoring the Gila Region. Any convection that develops today will be weak with only minor impacts, including gusty outflow winds. For the lowlands, dry/continental air continues to filter in from the E-SE, allowing for few-scattered CU and near-zero rain chances. Monday looks very similar as the upper high elongates to the southeast into the Gulf. Most of the area remains under the influence of the tongue of the relatively dry air with spotty activity in the mtns for the afternoon. On Tuesday, the high centers itself over W TX, allowing a subtropical moisture tap to shift eastward out of Sonora/Arizona. The "dry tongue" will be overcome by the monsoonal plume Tuesday night with PWs climbing to 10-30% above normal by Wed AM. Storm chances will be favored in the higher terrain and west of the Divide for the afternoon, then spreading eastward overnight with a low threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Storm coverage is uncertain for Tuesday night depending on if a vort max/embedded shortwave passes through the region from south to north. Winds will be breezier from the southeast (10-15 mph) on Tuesday due to the orientation of the ridge. Wednesday`s storm chances will also be dependent on what happens Tuesday night with potential for cloudy skies much of the day and less instability for daytime convection to feast upon. Regardless, if storms develop on Wednesday, there remains a threat of heavy rainfall due to moisture levels staying above average and slow storm motions with the upper high just to the east. After Wednesday, there is some uncertainty regarding how much moisture hangs around. The global ensembles generally have the upper high in the west-central TX vicinity for the rest of the week with a decent moisture tap continuing from the S-SW. Some ensemble members indicate drier, westerly flow poking in on the northern side of the ridge which would lower storm chances, especially for western areas. The most likely scenario seems to be typical monsoonal activity late in the week (scattered mtn/isolated lowland storms) after a more active period around midweek. Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal through the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Other than occasional gusts to mid teens this afternoon, winds will be AOB 8kts from S-SE. Mid-high clouds linger through the afternoon in northern areas with near-zero rain chances for KTCS into the evening. Mostly SKC otherwise through tomorrow morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. Mainly dry through Monday with only a low chance of showers and storms in area mountains. Gusty outflow winds are possible with a low threat of dry lightning due to relatively dry lower levels. Near-zero chance of rain elsewhere until Tuesday when moisture increases from the south and west overnight. Above-average moisture will result in better storm chances from Tuesday night onward with a low risk of flash flooding due to slow storm motions. Overnight recoveries will be fair to good through Monday night, then very good to excellent for the rest of the week. Winds become modestly breezy from the southeast on Tuesday (10-15 mph), otherwise prevailing winds will be light. Temperatures remain near or slightly below normal through the week. Min RHs will be 15-25% through Monday, then 20-35%. Vent rates range from poor to good through Monday, then good to excellent Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 61 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 66 92 67 91 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 68 92 69 92 / 0 10 0 10 Cloudcroft 50 71 50 67 / 0 20 10 30 Truth or Consequences 68 91 68 90 / 10 10 10 10 Silver City 63 86 63 85 / 10 20 10 40 Deming 65 95 67 94 / 10 0 0 10 Lordsburg 68 94 67 92 / 0 10 10 40 West El Paso Metro 71 94 73 93 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 64 94 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 68 95 71 96 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 64 88 65 87 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 67 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 68 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 71 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 67 92 67 91 / 10 0 10 10 Hatch 67 95 68 94 / 10 0 10 10 Columbus 66 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 10 Orogrande 66 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 10 Mayhill 55 82 55 78 / 0 10 10 40 Mescalero 55 82 54 78 / 0 20 10 40 Timberon 53 79 54 78 / 0 10 0 20 Winston 58 85 57 83 / 20 30 20 30 Hillsboro 64 92 64 91 / 10 10 10 20 Spaceport 65 91 66 91 / 10 10 10 10 Lake Roberts 58 86 58 85 / 10 30 20 50 Hurley 63 89 63 88 / 10 10 10 30 Cliff 67 94 66 93 / 10 20 20 40 Mule Creek 64 90 63 88 / 10 20 20 40 Faywood 64 89 64 88 / 10 10 10 30 Animas 65 94 66 91 / 0 10 10 50 Hachita 64 93 64 91 / 0 0 0 30 Antelope Wells 63 93 64 89 / 0 10 10 40 Cloverdale 63 88 63 84 / 0 10 10 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson