849
FXUS64 KEPZ 060449
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1049 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1038 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

 - Temperatures remain seasonably warm through midweek, then hot
Thursday and Friday

 - Moisture recovers on Sunday, bringing isolated to scattered
thunderstorm chances through Monday. Some storms may produce heavy
rainfall and strong winds.

 - Moisture levels return to near normal for the rest of the week
with lowering storm chances

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1038 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Today`s diurnal activity has dissipated this evening as the
atmosphere stabilizes with mostly clear skies expected. As we head
into Sunday, the upper high drifts slightly to the west and
weakens, allowing moisture to push in from the east. Dew points
climb to the 50s and 60s through the RGV tomorrow morning but will
mix out during the afternoon and drop to the 40s and 50s by peak
heating. This will be enough to trigger isolated activity in the
lowlands after scattered storms develop over area mountains by
around noon. The Sacs are most favored to see impactful storms
with a low threat of damaging winds and large hail. The best
thermodynamics will be focused over eastern areas Sunday afternoon
with 1500-2500 J/kg SBCAPE according to the 21z RAP forecast.
Upslope flow from the east will give updrafts additional lift over
the Sacs as storm motion is expected to be erratic due to the
upper high basically overhead. The increase in moisture from the
east (PWs returning to 1-1.2") and slow storm motion increases the
threat of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, but not to
the level of the past couple weeks. Rain rates of 1-2" per hour
are expected with the strongest storms, favoring the Sacs,
including recent burn scars. Gusty outflows to 50 mph are a threat
for the lowlands due to inverted-V soundings and DCAPE values
around 1500. The activity dissipates around sunset with a few
showers or storms lingering.

For Monday, much of the moisture sticks around as more northerly
flow develops around the upper high. An impulse along the eastern
edge of the high will help spark more robust activity on Monday, but
not widespread. The mountains have the best chance of storms with
scattered activity in the lowlands. Heavy rain and flash flooding
are low threats again on Monday with a Marginal Risk in the ERO from
WPC, shifting a bit to the west.

The storm/heavy rain threat lowers through midweek as the upper high
stretches out over the Desert SW. PWs fall to near normal Tue/Wed
with typical monsoon activity expected daily into late week,
involving isolated/scattered mtn storms and very low chances for the
lowlands. By midweek, western areas will be most likely to see
storms each day. Through the week, temperatures will be near or a
few degrees above normal. Most days will see El Paso near or above
100 with the warmest days being Thursday and Friday (medium chance
of Heat Advisories). Outside of gusty thunderstorm outflows, winds
will be light from the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

VFR conditions prevail into Sunday afternoon. Shower and storm
chances remain near zero through Sunday morning for all terminals,
increasing with isolated activity developing around 21z.
Confidence is high enough to insert a PROB30 at KELP due to higher
moisture but the other terminals are less likely to see direct
impacts. The convection would be capable of producing gusts to
30kts and heavy downpours which could lower VIS to MVFR levels.
After sunset, there`s a low chance of isolated to scattered
showers developing. Winds will be AOB 8kts through the AM with
some variability. Occasional gustiness develops in the afternoon,
becoming more frequent from E-SE around 0z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1040 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Warmer and drier air has moved into Southern NM and Far West TX.
This has led to a sharp decrease in rain/storm chances along with
allowing min RH values to drop into the lower to middle teens.
Winds are relatively light, however, topping out around 10 MPH
with some gusts up to 20 MPH. This pattern will remain in place
for Sunday; however, moisture will increase for areas east of the
Rio Grande. The increase in moisture will bring rain/storm chances
back to the Sacramento Mountains. Additionally, enough moisture
will also be in place along the AZ border for low rain/storm
chances. For Monday onwards, the monsoonal plume will be back over
NM with best moisture west of the Rio Grande leading to scattered
mountain and isolated to scattered lowland showers and
thunderstorms, especially west.

Venting will largely be good to very good each afternoon, limited
mostly by weak transport flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 103  76 102  77 /   0   0  20  20
Sierra Blanca            95  67  93  68 /   0   0  20  10
Las Cruces               99  69  99  71 /   0   0  20  30
Alamogordo              100  70  98  71 /   0   0  30  20
Cloudcroft               78  52  74  53 /   0   0  60  20
Truth or Consequences    98  70  99  71 /   0   0  20  30
Silver City              91  64  93  65 /  10  10  20  40
Deming                  100  69 101  71 /   0   0  20  40
Lordsburg                95  68  99  69 /   0  10  20  40
West El Paso Metro      100  76 100  77 /   0   0  20  30
Dell City               100  70  96  71 /   0   0  20  10
Fort Hancock            103  73 101  74 /   0   0  20  20
Loma Linda               94  69  92  68 /   0   0  20  20
Fabens                  101  72 101  75 /   0   0  20  20
Santa Teresa             99  72  99  74 /   0   0  20  30
White Sands HQ          100  75  99  76 /   0   0  30  30
Jornada Range            99  68  99  71 /   0   0  30  30
Hatch                   100  68 101  70 /   0   0  20  40
Columbus                 99  74 101  74 /   0   0  20  40
Orogrande                98  70  96  71 /   0   0  30  20
Mayhill                  88  57  83  58 /   0   0  60  20
Mescalero                90  58  86  58 /   0   0  60  20
Timberon                 86  57  82  56 /   0   0  50  20
Winston                  90  59  90  59 /  10  10  20  30
Hillsboro                96  66  98  67 /   0   0  20  40
Spaceport                98  66  98  68 /   0   0  20  30
Lake Roberts             92  59  93  60 /  10  10  30  40
Hurley                   93  65  95  65 /   0   0  20  40
Cliff                    98  66  99  67 /  10  10  20  30
Mule Creek               93  65  95  64 /  10  10  20  30
Faywood                  92  67  95  68 /   0   0  20  40
Animas                   96  69  99  71 /  10  10  30  50
Hachita                  96  68  98  70 /   0   0  20  40
Antelope Wells           95  68  97  70 /  10  10  30  50
Cloverdale               90  67  93  68 /  30  20  40  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson