501
FXUS64 KEPZ 101120
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
420 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 324 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025

 - Frigid wind chills expected tonight and this morning due to
   brisk northerly winds.

 - Chance of snow persists coming to an end by this morning.

 - Temperatures slowly rebound into next week to near normal as
   dry conditions return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025
Early morning satellite and radar show overcast skies with patchy
flurries and light snow in the lowlands east of the Divide, with
snow showers still ongoing over the Sacramento Mountains. Chilly
windchill values were observed this morning with single digit
values observed in parts of the Sacs and Black and Gila ranges
this morning as of 2:30 am MST. The coldest wind chill observed
as of 2:15am MST at the COSMIC RAWs at -13 F with a 25 mph wind at
the site. Model analysis this morning shows the disturbance will
depart to the east of the the region later this morning with skies
beginning later this morning across the area. Northerly flow over
the Borderland will keep temperatures chilly today, then turn
northwesterly on Saturday, and then westerly by Sunday as the
Borderland will be under the influence of longwave troughing
centered over the Rockies and Northern Plains this weekend.

An embedded shortwave rounding the base of the trough will bring
a slight chance of snow showers to the Sacramento Mountains on
Sunday, otherwise dry weather will persist through the rest of the
forecast period. By Sunday night, the longwave trough will push
east into the central Plains bringing zonal flow aloft to the
region through Monday night. On Tuesday, a cut off low will hover
somewhere off the coast of southern California, allowing for a
short wave ridging to set up over the Borderland and persist
through at least Thursday. One more day of chilly temperatures
across the Borderland with high temperatures around 10 to 15
degrees plus below normal before a gradual warming trend begins
across the area on Saturday. High temperatures will be around 6 to
10 degrees below normal this weekend, then gradually rebound
closer to normal by Wednesday and a touch above normal on
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 324 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025
Disturbance will continue to push east and out of the Borderland
this morning,allow for skies to clear with unlimited visibilities.
FEW-SCT050-080 becoming SKC around 15z at all TAF sites. Winds
will remain light with mainly a N/NE component through the rest
of the period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 137 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025
Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. The
second disturbance is bringing scattered flurries to parts of the
Borderland this morning. The system will exit the region later
this morning with clearing skies by this afternoon. Drier air will
filter in with chilly temperatures continuing today. Temperatures
will gradually warm to at or just above normal during the latter
part of next week. Vent rates will be poor to good through the
period.

Min RH values will range from 24-41% today, then 21-50% on
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  42  25  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            38  17  46  21 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               42  19  48  24 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               40  13  43  15 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               22   9  35  10 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    39  18  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              39  18  47  18 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   42  15  53  19 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                42  13  51  14 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       42  24  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                42  14  49  16 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             45  14  52  17 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               36  20  42  24 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   44  18  52  21 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             40  19  47  21 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           42  23  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            40  13  46  13 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    44  14  52  16 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 42  18  54  21 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                40  16  45  18 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  34  14  51  14 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                32  10  42  12 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                 31   8  41  11 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  37  10  49   8 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                39  17  49  17 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                40  12  46  14 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             40  17  51  15 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   38  14  49  15 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    47   4  55   3 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               44  19  51  17 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  38  17  51  19 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   43  15  56  16 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  41  12  54  16 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           40  17  56  20 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               37  21  50  23 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for Northern
     Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern
     Hudspeth Highlands.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
     Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
     Western El Paso County.

NM...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for Central
     Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
     Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
     the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
     County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila
     Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
     Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
     Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa
     Basin/White Sands.

     Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for East
     Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southern Gila Region
     Highlands/Black Range-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for
     Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
     Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
     the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
     County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
     County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
     Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest
     Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres
     Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West
     Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento
     Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST early this morning for East
     Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...41-Kelly