230
FXUS64 KEPZ 010909
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
309 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Active weather conditions will continue each day of this week and
through the weekend. Strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall, which
could lead to flash flooding will be the main concerns from the
thunderstorms that develop across our area. The temperatures will
at and above the normal throughout the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Currently, the skies are mostly cloudy with a few light spotty
showers across the central CWA, the winds are light to breezy and
temperatures are on the mild side. These light showers will
gradually diminish as they move northward. For today, similar to
yesterday, we will continue to be quiet mainly during the morning
hours, but will active in the afternoon as showers and
thunderstorms develop across the the mountains due to upslope flow
at first and then over the lowlands along the outflow boundaries.
The PWAT values will be near to above the climatological normal
with the dew point temperatures in the 40s and 50s. As with past
events, the main threat from theses storms will be heavy rainfall
that will lead to flash flooding and strong gusty winds. Also,
can`t rule out pea sized hail with some of these storms. The
center of a ridge of high pressure will be across eastern Texas;
thus, increased cloud coverage, rain-cooled air and a weak ridge
aloft, the high temperatures this afternoon will be generally
around the normal for this time of the year. For tonight, showers
and thunderstorms may linger into the late evening hours. However,
by around the early morning hours storms will dissipate leaving
the rest of the morning quiet. There will be some cloud debris
with light to breezy winds, which would allow for the low
temperatures on Tuesday morning to be above the climatological
average. By Tuesday, the center of the ridge looks to shift
slightly eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will
cause the moisture to be confined across our area while a
shortwave trough passes to out north. On Tuesday, we will see a
repeat of Monday`s weather. The temperatures will continue to be
near the normal on Tuesday.

By the middle of the week, the ridge axis will move further east
across the Southeast. This will steer more moisture into our
area. Also, as with the previous day, a shortwave trough will
move to our north leaving us in the call area with another ridge
across the Pacific Southwest. We will be sandwiched between the
these three features allowing for areawide precipitation and with
the risk of see more flood and wind events across the entire CWA
on Wednesday. As we head toward the end of the week, active
weather will persist; however, not as with the first half of the
week. On Thursday, will be less active weather than what we will
see on Tuesday and Wednesday. Much of the day on Friday should be
quiet; however, there is a chance for that a back door cold front
could move through overnight Friday into Saturday morning with an
easterly wave move across Mexico. With these two features coupled
together, Friday night could be active all night long. More on
this as we get closer to this event. The temperatures toward the
end of the week will warm to above the normal; but will decrease
to below the normal on Saturday. High pressure will amplify
across the West, a trough sags across the Central Plains; thus
active weather will likely continue through the weekend for much
of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Lingering showers and a few brief isolated thunderstorms will
continue across region through around 10z and then dissipate. VFR
conditions are expected at all TAF sites through 18Z. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop after 18Z, first over the
higher mountains then in over the lowlands by 20Z to 21Z. TAF
sites could be impacted by strong winds and periods of reduced
visibility in moderate to heavy rainfall, Otherwise VFR conditions
are expected to be the primary state at TAF sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and this
evening across much of the zones. The main concerns for these
storms will be heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding, gusty
winds and frequent lightning. The 20ft winds will be light to
breezy and temperatures near the average. Tonight recovery will
be good to excellent. Showers and thunderstorms will linger
through the late evening hours. For Tuesday, similar conditions
are expected with quiet weather mainly in the morning and active
in the afternoon. The winds will continue to be light to breezy
and temperatures around the normal. Tuesday overnight recovery
will be good to excellent. For the rest of the period, each day
we will see continued chances for showers and thunderstorms with
Wednesday being the most active day. The winds will be light to
breezy with the temperatures gradually increasing to above the
normal through the end of the week. With that being said, there
will be no fire weather concerns across the entire zones
throughout the period.

The min RHs today will be between 20 and 30% in the lowlands and
between 35 and 50% in the mountains. The min RHs on Tuesday will
decrease 3 to 5% across the zones. The ventilation rates will be
poor to very good today then poor to good on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 100  81 102  81 /  10  20  20  50
Sierra Blanca            93  72  96  73 /  10  10  20  50
Las Cruces               97  74 100  75 /  20  30  30  40
Alamogordo               95  70  97  70 /  20  20  30  30
Cloudcroft               73  54  75  55 /  40  20  60  40
Truth or Consequences    94  73  93  73 /  40  40  70  40
Silver City              86  67  89  66 /  50  50  80  50
Deming                   97  72  98  73 /  30  30  50  50
Lordsburg                93  70  95  70 /  50  40  60  50
West El Paso Metro       98  79 100  78 /  10  20  30  50
Dell City                97  73 101  75 /  10  10  20  30
Fort Hancock            100  76 103  76 /  10  10  20  50
Loma Linda               91  73  94  73 /  20  20  30  50
Fabens                   99  77 102  78 /  20  20  20  50
Santa Teresa             96  74  99  75 /  20  30  30  60
White Sands HQ           96  77  97  78 /  20  30  40  50
Jornada Range            96  71  97  71 /  20  30  40  40
Hatch                    97  72  99  72 /  20  30  50  50
Columbus                 96  74  98  75 /  30  30  40  60
Orogrande                94  73  97  73 /  20  20  30  40
Mayhill                  84  59  86  60 /  40  20  60  40
Mescalero                84  59  86  60 /  40  30  60  40
Timberon                 81  57  84  59 /  30  20  50  40
Winston                  84  61  83  60 /  70  40  90  40
Hillsboro                92  69  92  69 /  50  40  80  50
Spaceport                94  67  95  68 /  30  40  60  40
Lake Roberts             86  62  88  62 /  60  60  80  50
Hurley                   90  66  92  66 /  40  40  60  40
Cliff                    95  67  97  65 /  50  40  60  30
Mule Creek               89  68  91  68 /  60  40  60  30
Faywood                  89  68  92  68 /  40  40  70  50
Animas                   94  69  95  70 /  60  50  60  50
Hachita                  94  69  95  69 /  40  40  50  60
Antelope Wells           93  69  94  69 /  50  40  70  70
Cloverdale               89  67  90  66 /  50  40  60  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flash Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this
     evening for NMZ414>416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira