619
FXUS64 KEPZ 092107
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
307 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

 - Fair weather conditions Monday.

 - Series of Pacific storms will bring strong winds and a chance
   of showers to the area on Tuesday and Thursday/Friday.

 - Blowing dust/poor visibility will once again be the biggest
   impact on both Tuesday and Thursday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

An area of upper level high pressure is pushing across the region
today. This upper level ridge has warmed our temperatures from
what we saw on Saturday and kept our winds relatively calm. The
ridge will be moving east on Monday, but still close by enough to
give us another nice day, but it is March, and you know that can`t
last.

On Tuesday a lee side surface trough will develop over southeast
Colorado. At the same time an upper level trough will pushing onto
the West Coast. While the lee side trough looks pretty strong,
the upper level trough to our west is not in the best place for
really strong winds. Right now the probabilities of seeing 25 mph
sustained winds are pretty low (10 to 30%). Probabilities are a
higher in the mountains, but that is to be expected. Right now
Tuesday afternoon is looking windy (20 to 30 mph), but winds look
to fall short of advisory levels (30 to 40 mph). Having said that,
we have already seen that it doesn`t take much to get blowing
dust going, so we will likely (60 to 80%) see at least patchy
areas of blowing dust. The southwest winds on Tuesday will be well
aligned to bring dust into El Paso from the dust source regions
across northern Mexico. By Wednesday morning the upper level
trough will move across New Mexico and give us chance (30 to 50%)
of light lowland rain showers (mainly west of the Rio Grande) or
light mountain snow showers. By Wednesday afternoon the upper
level trough will be to our east, but it will still be close
enough to give us a breezy afternoon.

On Thursday, Friday and Saturday of the coming week, we will see
a pair of upper level storm systems approach the region. Like
Tuesday`s system, the end of the week`s system is not well timed
for really strong winds. The first system will approach on
Thursday and give us windy conditions with likely areas of
blowing dust. The system will sweep in some moisture and cooler
air. We will see snow in area mountains (especially the Gila
Region) and light rain in the lowlands. I would not be surprised
if some light snow mixes into the rain in the lowlands Friday
morning, mainly west of the Rio Grande. Friday is also looking
windy, but with the precipitation, we may not see as much blowing
dust as we will on Thursday. Another short wave trough will dash
across the area Friday into Saturday morning which will continue
our breezy to windy conditions.

Taking a quick look at temperatures, on Monday we will warm a few
more degrees which will put our high temperatures near seasonal
averages. Then on Tuesday, with the stronger southwest winds, we
will see a few more degrees of warming to get our high
temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above average. On Wednesday we will
be a little cooler, but then we bounce back a few degrees above
average on Thursday. Friday will be the coolest day of the week
with high temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees below average. For
Saturday and Sunday we will see around 5 degrees of warming each
day to get our highs back to seasonal averages by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

We will have VFR conditions and quiet weather for the next 24
hours. Our winds will be light from the north or light and
variable this afternoon. Winds will generally by light and
variable tonight into Monday morning as well. Ceilings will
continue to be unlimited through Monday. For you situational
awareness, strong winds, blowing dust and lower visibilities will
be on the way for Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

We will have one more quiet day on Monday than we will move into a
more active fire weather pattern. On Tuesday, we will have single
digit min RH`s in the lowlands and in the teens in area
mountains. At the same time an approaching upper level storm
system will give us breezy to windy conditions. Min RH`s in the
lowlands of New Mexico will easily hit critical thresholds, but
the pattern for winds is not great. ERC`s on Tuesday will be near
record high values and HDWI values have a spike on Tuesday. RFTI
values are the middle of the road, and the values are almost all
made up by the RH component that is because the winds are
struggling to reach critical values. The upper level low will be
way west over western Arizona. That is not the best placement for
strong winds. We will be close to critical fire weather conditions
on Tuesday, so a Fire Weather Watch is in place. On Thursday and
Friday another, stronger, upper level trough will approach the
region. The second trough will have stronger winds, but it will
also have some moisture and precipitation. So again, we will be
close to critical fire weather conditions, especially on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  39  72  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            32  68  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               32  68  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               31  68  34  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               26  50  30  51 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    33  69  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              31  63  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   31  71  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                28  69  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       41  70  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                29  71  32  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             31  75  36  79 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               37  64  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   34  74  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             34  68  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           40  69  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            29  68  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    28  71  31  75 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 33  70  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                33  67  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  29  66  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                27  61  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 26  58  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  23  62  24  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                32  67  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                28  68  31  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             29  65  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   28  65  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    23  71  27  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               28  66  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  33  64  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   26  73  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  27  69  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           30  71  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               34  66  38  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ-
      South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
     Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
     BLM/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice