Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
924 FXUS64 KEPZ 280811 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 211 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 129 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Warm, with isolated lowland and scattered mountain storms Thursday afternoon. - Increasing rain and thunderstorm probability and coverage beginning Friday, then ramping up through the weekend with a higher threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Sunday and Monday look to be the wettest days. - Temperatures remain near or just above normal through Saturday, then fall below normal Sunday, into next week, with more clouds and rain across the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1029 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Despite a moderate increase in atmospheric moisture across the Borderland, a high pressure dome aloft, centered directly over the region, is doing a pretty good job of keeping showers and storms at bay, due to warm air aloft capping a lot of the lift from daytime heating surface instability. We are back over 1.00" of PWAT with 1.28" this AM, and 1.16" this PM. Models are in good agreement with keeping the high, and the moisture values near identical for tomorrow. This should mean another day of mostly isolated showers and thunderstorms, with better chances over area mountains; thus favoring the SACs and Blacks, with some weak, and short-lived lowland storms after mid-afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit warmer, with another day of subsident warming allowing for lowland temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Highs will be 3-5 degrees above normal across the lowlands. With high pressure dominating, winds will be generally light and variable. Friday looks to start a transition, where we may see a very slight gain in moisture (from the SW), and a loss of some stability aloft, as the upper high shifts to our east, and weakens slightly. This should mean a marginal gain in rain and storm chances across the region. Still, a warm day, with light winds, but with a slight increase in afternoon/evening rain and storm potential. Saturday through Tuesday look to be a period where the region will have an influx of abundant moisture in our atmosphere, We see some low level troughing across the area, pulling in moisture from the SW through S to E. PWATs are expected to get above 1.3-1.4", and even as high as 1.5". Even the low end forecast PWAT would be above our 90%ile, with 1.5" near all time record levels. Surface dewpoints are forecast in the 50s to around 60 degrees. With the upper high breaking down, we anticipate some disturbances rotating in from the S, and possibly skirting the region from the north. In addition, we can see the potential for a backdoor front Sunday night/Monday AM, pushing in from the NE, to provide focus for rain/storms. Thus we will see an increase in rain/storm chance and coverage for Saturday, followed by much elevated POPS in the forecast for SUN- MON. With plenty of moisture, clouds, and possible rain, temperatures for this period should be slightly cooler than seasonal normals. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be days where we begin to see drier air move back in. High pressure aloft, will reform once again to our N and W, driving a drier northerly flow aloft into and over the region. This looks to push our deeper moisture south and west, with a resulting drop in shower and storm coverage. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models show a fairly sharp disturbance dropping across the Southern Rockies for late WED into Thursday, that could induce an rebound in showers and storms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 VFR conditions through the night and the morning hours, as the airmass has stabilized, with few to no showers expected. A mix of sky conditions with few low clouds. Mid and upper level clouds will vary between FEW-SCT110 SCT-BKN150 to short periods of nearly SKC. Winds will be light and variable. For tomorrow, expect some convective development over area mountains by 18z, with FEW- SCT060-080. ISOL lowland SHRA or TSRA, mainly aft 21Z. Possible local MVFR VCTY SHRA/TSRA with lower CIGS or VSBY in rain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 129 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Low fire danger through the week ahead as moisture and thunderstorm chances stick around every day. Min RHs stay above critical thresholds through the week ahead. Min RH values will be 20-30% in the lowlands and 35-60% in the mountains each day through Saturday. A very moist airmass will be overhead Sunday and Monday allowing for heavy downpours leading to flooding. Min RHs increase to 30-45% in the lowlands and 60-80% in the mountains Sunday and Monday. 20 foot winds stay light at 5-10 mph each afternoon becoming calm with variable direction overnight. Today will be similar to what we saw yesterday with most of the storm activity being over the area mountains with isolated storms in the lowlands. More widespread coverage on Friday with numerous storms in the mountains and scattered activity in the lowlands which could last into the overnight hours. Saturday looks similar to Friday, perhaps a bit more of an uptick in activity. Sunday and Monday look to be the most active with numerous heavy thunderstorms which could lead to flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars. Drier air pushes in Tuesday helping to alleviate some of the flooding threat, but enough moisture to keep afternoon monsoonal thunderstorm chances around. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 98 76 99 74 / 10 10 20 50 Sierra Blanca 92 67 94 66 / 20 20 50 50 Las Cruces 94 69 95 68 / 10 10 20 60 Alamogordo 94 71 96 69 / 10 10 40 50 Cloudcroft 71 52 72 51 / 30 20 70 60 Truth or Consequences 92 70 93 68 / 10 20 40 40 Silver City 87 62 89 62 / 20 20 50 40 Deming 97 70 98 69 / 10 20 20 50 Lordsburg 93 68 94 67 / 20 20 30 30 West El Paso Metro 95 75 97 74 / 10 10 20 60 Dell City 96 70 97 68 / 10 10 20 30 Fort Hancock 98 73 99 72 / 20 20 40 50 Loma Linda 88 68 91 67 / 10 10 30 50 Fabens 96 72 98 72 / 10 10 20 50 Santa Teresa 94 71 96 71 / 10 10 20 60 White Sands HQ 95 74 97 72 / 10 10 30 60 Jornada Range 93 70 95 68 / 10 20 30 60 Hatch 96 69 98 68 / 10 20 40 60 Columbus 96 72 97 71 / 10 20 20 50 Orogrande 93 69 94 68 / 10 10 30 50 Mayhill 81 57 81 57 / 30 20 70 60 Mescalero 83 57 84 56 / 30 20 70 60 Timberon 80 57 81 55 / 30 10 60 50 Winston 84 57 86 56 / 30 20 70 40 Hillsboro 92 65 94 64 / 30 20 50 50 Spaceport 93 67 94 66 / 10 20 40 50 Lake Roberts 86 57 89 57 / 30 20 70 40 Hurley 90 64 91 63 / 20 20 40 40 Cliff 94 65 95 64 / 20 20 40 30 Mule Creek 89 62 90 61 / 20 20 30 20 Faywood 90 65 91 63 / 30 20 40 50 Animas 93 69 94 68 / 20 20 30 40 Hachita 93 68 94 67 / 20 20 30 50 Antelope Wells 92 66 93 67 / 20 30 40 50 Cloverdale 87 63 87 63 / 40 40 50 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher