Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
332 FXUS64 KEPZ 110519 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1119 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1115 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 - Rain chances and moisture will increase across the region from west to east on Saturday. Best chances for rain will be west of the Continental Divide on Saturday. - Remnant tropical moisture will continue to flow over the area Saturday night through Monday, bringing rain and storm chances. Heavy rain will be a threat in southern and western areas of New Mexico with flooding possible. - Temperatures will be near or above normal Saturday,then cooling below average early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1115 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Saturday will be a transition day as abundant moisture will begin to move into the region. We already have above average precipitable water values (PW`s) across the area. This evening`s balloon sounding had a PW of 1.13 which is well above average and by Saturday night we will see record high PW`s of 1.4 to 1.5. The reason for all this moisture is not one but two tropical systems. Both post-tropical Priscilla and tropical storm Raymond will funnel moisture into the southwest U.S. Initially the bulk of the moisture will push into Arizona, where we are already seeing numerous showers this evening. But an approaching west coast upper level trough will push that moisture plume into New Mexico on Saturday and then Raymond`s moisture will push into the region late Saturday and into Sunday. Normally this amount of moisture might mean a bunch of clouds without a lot of rain, but with the west coast trough near the region on Saturday, that will help provide some lift. For Saturday morning our CAPE (convective available potential energy) will be near zero, so initially we will have little chance for rain tonight through Saturday morning. But then the deeper moisture and higher CAPE values of 200 to 500 will move into the region. While those CAPE numbers are not too impressive, it Will provide enough lift and energy to get showers and isolated thunderstorms going first west of the Rio Grande, but by Saturday evening across the whole area. For Sunday the deep moisture will continue to flow into the area as more energy from the west coast upper level trough continues to wash across the region. Sunday, looks like the wettest day with numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms. What few thunderstorms that do develop will be very efficient rain makers, but more likely we will see lots of rain showers. The rain showers individually won`t add up to much rain, but hour after hour we could see some sizable rain totals. Much of the region will see rainfall totals 0.50 to 1.00 with isolated higher amounts. Our sensitive burn scars and other flood sensitive areas will need to be monitored for the potential of flooding. The rain chances will continue into Monday so we will need to continue to monitor things for flooding. By Tuesday and into Wednesday we will have drier air begin to filter into the region, which will help lower our rain chances so that by Wednesday afternoon we will finally be drying out. Drier air will continue to push into the area so that we will have dry conditions through the end of next week. Taking a quick look at temperatures. On Saturday, will have another warm day as the moisture will take just long enough to arrive to allow things to warm up so that our highs on Saturday will run a few degrees above average. But with the clouds and rain on Sunday and Monday, we will see high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees below average. As we begin to slowly dry out for Tuesday and Wednesday, we will see our high temperature begin to rebound and by the end of next week our highs will be a little above average. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 We will have a quiet night with light southeasterly winds with mid and high ceilings. By early Saturday morning deeper tropical moisture will begin to move into the region from the west to the east. By late morning we will see scattered rain showers west of the Rio Grande. The exact timing is still a little in doubt so I left things with a VCSH at 18Z for KTCS and KDMN. The rain showers will push further east so I have VCSH for KLRU by 00Z and KELP by 02Z. Right now ceilings don`t look too bad, but I can`t rule out some brief MVFR ceilings in and near some of the heavier showers, but generally I think VFR conditions will rule for most of the day on Saturday. The best rain chances look to move into the region between 03Z and 12Z. For now I have only a mention of prob30 for KDMN. I will let later shifts adjust the late period TAF`s accordingly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 A potent low in the Pacific Northwest will work to funnel tropical remnants into the Desert Southwest this weekend. Elevated humidity, poor smoke dispersion, and an enhanced risk of flash flooding will prevail through early next week. Widespread wetting rainfall will favor western areas overnight, pushing eastward early Saturday morning. Coverage and intensity will increase on Sunday, enhancing the risk for burn scar flash flooding. Additional rounds of rainfall will be possible on Monday and Tuesday before dry southwest flow scours out the tropical moisture. Humidity will steadily decline through late next week, dipping into the upper 20 to 30 percent range by Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 89 68 75 63 / 0 0 20 70 Sierra Blanca 84 61 73 58 / 10 0 10 50 Las Cruces 82 62 72 58 / 0 10 30 70 Alamogordo 84 62 76 58 / 0 0 20 50 Cloudcroft 63 46 55 43 / 10 0 20 50 Truth or Consequences 79 60 76 57 / 10 10 40 40 Silver City 74 56 68 53 / 10 20 70 70 Deming 82 63 74 59 / 10 10 50 70 Lordsburg 79 62 71 59 / 0 20 70 70 West El Paso Metro 86 66 73 63 / 0 0 20 80 Dell City 87 63 78 61 / 0 0 10 40 Fort Hancock 91 67 78 64 / 0 0 10 60 Loma Linda 80 60 68 57 / 0 0 10 60 Fabens 89 65 74 63 / 0 0 10 60 Santa Teresa 85 64 71 61 / 0 0 20 80 White Sands HQ 84 65 73 61 / 0 0 20 70 Jornada Range 81 62 73 59 / 0 10 30 60 Hatch 83 62 77 60 / 10 10 40 50 Columbus 84 63 73 61 / 0 10 40 70 Orogrande 83 61 72 58 / 0 0 10 70 Mayhill 74 53 68 49 / 10 0 20 40 Mescalero 74 51 68 48 / 10 10 20 50 Timberon 71 49 63 47 / 0 0 10 50 Winston 74 50 71 48 / 10 20 60 50 Hillsboro 79 57 76 55 / 10 10 50 50 Spaceport 80 59 75 57 / 10 10 30 50 Lake Roberts 75 52 70 50 / 10 20 70 60 Hurley 75 57 70 54 / 10 20 60 70 Cliff 81 60 75 57 / 10 30 80 70 Mule Creek 77 56 72 53 / 10 30 80 70 Faywood 75 58 70 56 / 10 20 50 60 Animas 83 62 72 60 / 0 20 70 80 Hachita 81 60 70 58 / 0 20 70 80 Antelope Wells 83 61 70 58 / 10 20 60 90 Cloverdale 77 60 65 57 / 10 20 70 90 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice