Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
857 FXUS64 KEPZ 052101 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 201 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 419 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026 - Dry with seasonable temperatures today and Friday. - Increasing chances for light to moderate rain showers Friday afternoon and Saturday. - Cooler temperatures for the weekend, returning to near normal by mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2026 High pressure settling over the Texas Panhandle will bring light but steady east winds to the area overnight, keeping a relatively cooler air mass in place. Meanwhile, confidence is increasing for rain chances Friday Night into Saturday as models have trended towards a closed-low/further south scenario that will allow more moisture to get pulled into the area. Total rainfall amounts are still expected to be light to moderate, and highest near and east of the Rio Grande. Expect rain showers to slowly develop in SW New Mexico Friday afternoon, spreading east along the international border in the evening and overnight. Rain will linger the longest east of El Paso on Saturday. Cooler temperatures will accompany the showers and widespread cloud cover. Highs on Saturday look to stay stuck in the upper-50s over much of the lowlands, or about 10-15 degrees below normal. Temperatures will warm back up to near normal by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 123 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2026 Light but steady east winds will prevail overnight, with VFR conditions prevailing. Expect increasing high clouds late in the period, with mid-clouds moving in SW New Mexico after 18Z Fri. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 123 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2026 An upper level disturbance will bring widespread light to moderate rain showers to the region Friday evening through Saturday. Rain will linger the longest near and east of the Rio Grande on Saturday. Meanwhile, a weak backdoor cold front will slide in from the east. Very light winds behind the front, both at the surface and aloft, will promote poor ventilation conditions through the weekend. Meanwhile, temperatures will trend below normal this weekend, with RH values remaining elevated. The rainfall will help maintain low ERC values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 48 68 51 59 / 0 0 70 80 Sierra Blanca 45 64 49 54 / 0 0 80 90 Las Cruces 44 63 48 57 / 0 0 80 60 Alamogordo 41 64 46 61 / 0 10 70 40 Cloudcroft 31 44 36 38 / 0 30 80 50 Truth or Consequences 43 63 49 62 / 0 10 60 20 Silver City 41 57 43 57 / 0 30 60 20 Deming 40 63 47 58 / 0 10 80 50 Lordsburg 41 63 46 60 / 0 20 50 20 West El Paso Metro 49 67 51 58 / 0 0 70 80 Dell City 41 66 49 58 / 0 10 70 80 Fort Hancock 47 73 52 63 / 0 10 80 80 Loma Linda 42 60 45 51 / 0 0 80 80 Fabens 50 72 52 61 / 0 0 80 80 Santa Teresa 47 66 50 57 / 0 0 70 70 White Sands HQ 48 64 50 59 / 0 0 70 50 Jornada Range 38 64 47 59 / 0 10 80 50 Hatch 41 67 48 63 / 0 10 80 50 Columbus 46 66 49 58 / 0 10 50 60 Orogrande 44 64 49 58 / 0 10 70 50 Mayhill 33 55 37 47 / 0 20 80 60 Mescalero 35 57 37 51 / 0 30 80 40 Timberon 30 54 39 47 / 0 10 80 60 Winston 33 56 39 55 / 0 20 30 20 Hillsboro 42 62 45 60 / 0 20 50 40 Spaceport 38 64 47 62 / 0 10 70 30 Lake Roberts 33 58 38 58 / 0 30 40 20 Hurley 41 59 44 58 / 0 30 60 30 Cliff 41 64 46 65 / 0 40 40 10 Mule Creek 39 60 40 61 / 0 30 40 10 Faywood 43 59 46 56 / 0 20 60 40 Animas 43 65 47 59 / 0 20 70 20 Hachita 43 63 46 57 / 0 10 70 30 Antelope Wells 43 66 47 57 / 0 30 50 50 Cloverdale 44 62 44 54 / 0 40 80 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman