Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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453 FXUS64 KEPZ 011735 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1135 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 159 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024 A backdoor front will continue to push in from the Plains this morning and afternoon bringing breezy east winds. A brief cool down can be expected from this frontal passage but temperatures warm up to near record breaking values towards the end of the work week with dry conditions persisting. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024 A backdoor front will continue to spill in from the Great Plains today allowing for breezy winds with speeds generally 15-20MPH scattered about the lowlands of southern NM and far west TX. The breeziest winds can be expected near west facing slopes. A brief dip in temperatures is also in store today and tomorrow thanks to this frontal passage, but temperatures largely stay above average during this time. High pressure generally stays anchored nearby keeping the Borderland very dry with well above average temperatures. Thursday and Friday will see temperatures that are near record those days as high temperatures are only a degree or two shy of breaking these daily records. Thursday has a record of 94F and Friday has a record of 95F. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with SKC and CIG FEW150. The winds will be generally breezy 11 to 17 kts with gusts up to 25 kts from between the northeast and southeast at least until 00Z. The winds will subside thereafter while out from the northeast. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 159 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024 Elevated fire conditions continue almost each day as dry and above average temperatures persist. Near critical to critical min RH values can be expected each day for the desert lowlands. The breeziest winds will be seen today thanks to a cool front pushing in from the Great Plains bringing breezy east winds (20ft winds of 10-15MPH). Otherwise, hot and dry conditions expected to stay through the forecast period. Light southerly winds expected each day with Thursday and Friday being the hottest. Ventilation rates will be good to excellent today, fair to good tomorrow and Thursday becoming good to excellent again on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 63 88 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 81 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 57 86 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 55 84 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 65 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 57 86 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 53 81 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 55 87 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 58 86 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 86 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 53 85 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 57 88 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 55 80 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 58 86 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 58 84 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 59 86 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 85 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 55 87 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 85 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 55 83 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 43 77 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 44 76 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 42 73 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 45 80 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 53 85 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 85 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 47 82 49 87 / 0 10 0 0 Hurley 51 83 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 90 49 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 53 84 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 54 81 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 55 87 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 84 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 86 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 55 82 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira