Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
286
FXUS64 KEPZ 011235
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
635 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025
- Despite increasing moisture, expect an overall downtick in
thunderstorm intensity and coverage today, with widely
scattered, and less intense, showers and thunderstorms
favoring areas east of the Rio Grande this afternoon and
evening.
- Thunderstorm coverage will increase Wednesday and Thursday as
upper level dynamics improve while deeper moisture remains in
place.
- Drier air will move in for Friday through Sunday.
- Temperatures will be below normal through Friday, then will
warm back up to above normal this weekend. Some areas will
reaching 100 degrees again along the Rio Grande Lower Valley.
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR DAY ONE CONVECTIVE TRENDS...
Issued at 544 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Monday was a blockbuster with dust, severe convective wind gusts,
and flash flooding (and some very impressive rainfall rates
despite a mere 1.00" PWAT). Northerly flow during the monsoon has
a way of organizing convection. Convection also took full
advantage of the enhanced deep layer shear over SW New Mexico
yesterday as well, along with a well- timed boost in low level
moisture.
Today (Tuesday) is shaping up to be quieter.
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows an inverted trough
attempting to close off at 500 mb, a bit messy but roughly
centered over northeastern Chihuahua west of Presidio. This isn`t
the usual sort of early-Monsoon season inverted trough, as
westerly flow prevails at jet stream level. This more than likely
is convectively-induced from activity the last few days. But as
with most inverted troughs, the best dynamics typically wind up
being ahead of and behind the trough axis, with a lull in between.
A few things going against us today... we`ve lost the northerly
component to the mid-level flow, and temperatures aloft have
climbed notably from -8C at 500 mb yesterday, to -5C on the 12Z
RAOB. Instability will be much weaker today...almost nil on the
06Z GFS, and around 500 J/KG SBCAPE on the NAM. High aloft, a jet
streak will be leaving the area, with confluent flow over most of
Southern New Mexico. Also, 24 hours ago that northerly flow helped
flush us out of convective debris, so we started the day with a
clean slate. Not so for today. Expect stubborn mid and high level
clouds to hang around far West Texas and Otero County through
early afternoon.
Deeper easterly low level flow is boosting moisture, and PWAT
values will be pushing 1.4 inches at ELP and most points east by
this afternoon per models. The HREF and subsequent CAMS all
suggest widely scattered, disorganized and overall weaker
convection developing over Otero and Hudspeth Counties early this
afternoon, heading west towards the Rio Grande into the evening,
and popping up in the Gila later in the afternoon as well. There`s
some hints of a weak disturbance perhaps keeping convection going
into the evening over parts of the Gila, particularly western
Grant County. this occurs as the confluent flow aloft shifts east
and becomes more divergent around 03Z. Low confidence in that.
With the PWAT values so high, we can`t completely rule out the
risk of spot flooding, particularly in burn scar areas, but the
steering flow is more favorable for storms to move off the higher
terrain without training.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1023 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025
We had an active weather pattern tonight, with strong winds,
dust, heavy rain and even a little hail and it looks like Tuesday
may be a repeat. Moisture will continue to flow into the area
from the east, while aloft, an inverted trough will be settled
over the region. We will see scattered thunderstorms develop
during Tuesday afternoon in area mountains and then work down into
the lowlands. With the increased moisture heavy rains and flash
flooding will be a concern, but also, any outflow winds may kick
up areas of blowing dust. The thunderstorms may extend well into
Tuesday night and early morning hours on Wednesday.
On Wednesday the low aloft will still be lingering over the
region and we will still have plenty of moisture to work with, so
we will see more rain chances on Wednesday. By Thursday the upper
level low will have fizzled out, but another upper level trough
will be approaching the region from the west, so you guessed it,
another chance for rain on Thursday. On Friday the upper level
trough will have moved across the region and dry and warmer air
will be moving back into the area. It looks like we should be dry
for the Forth of July evening. For Saturday and Sunday, we will
have an upper level ridge over the region and that will keep us
dry and allow high temperatures to creep a few degrees above
average. Some lowland locations may reach the triple digits on
Saturday and Sunday, especially in the Rio Grande Valley from El
Paso and southward.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Thunderstorm coverage will be lower today, favoring areas near and
east of the Rio Grande. PROB30s with thunder kept in place at ELP
late this afternoon and evening, but any impacts will be brief as
storm motion will be quite progressive.
Otherwise, expect steady east to southeast flow today across the
area, and VFR conditions prevailing.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 544 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Monsoon moisture will remain in place through Thursday.
Precipitation coverage today will be lower than the past couple of
days, and focused east of the Rio Grande. More widely spread
showers are expected on Wednesday and Thursday before a drying
trend. Westerly flow aloft on Friday will bring in drier air
aloft, and upper level high pressure will build in over the
weekend, allowing temperatures to slowly climb. Minimum RH values
will also drop back into the lower to middle 10s across the
lowlands over the weekend. Precip chances will look to only slowly
increase next week as high pressure begins to creep northward.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 83 70 89 71 / 40 50 40 50
Sierra Blanca 73 62 79 63 / 70 60 80 60
Las Cruces 84 65 85 66 / 40 30 30 60
Alamogordo 82 64 85 65 / 40 30 50 50
Cloudcroft 58 47 61 48 / 60 50 80 50
Truth or Consequences 85 66 86 67 / 40 30 50 50
Silver City 82 60 80 60 / 40 40 70 60
Deming 87 67 89 68 / 30 40 40 60
Lordsburg 90 67 89 66 / 20 30 60 60
West El Paso Metro 83 70 86 72 / 40 40 30 60
Dell City 78 66 82 67 / 50 50 70 50
Fort Hancock 80 69 86 70 / 60 60 70 60
Loma Linda 73 62 77 64 / 50 60 50 50
Fabens 82 68 87 70 / 50 50 40 50
Santa Teresa 84 68 85 69 / 30 40 30 60
White Sands HQ 82 69 85 71 / 40 40 40 60
Jornada Range 82 65 85 67 / 40 30 40 60
Hatch 85 67 87 68 / 40 30 40 60
Columbus 86 68 88 70 / 20 30 30 60
Orogrande 80 65 82 66 / 40 40 50 50
Mayhill 65 53 68 53 / 60 50 90 50
Mescalero 69 52 72 53 / 60 50 80 50
Timberon 66 50 68 51 / 60 50 80 60
Winston 78 55 77 56 / 40 30 70 50
Hillsboro 83 62 84 63 / 40 40 60 60
Spaceport 83 64 84 65 / 40 40 40 50
Lake Roberts 81 56 81 57 / 50 40 80 60
Hurley 85 60 83 60 / 40 30 60 60
Cliff 91 64 89 64 / 40 40 70 50
Mule Creek 87 61 85 62 / 40 40 70 50
Faywood 82 62 82 64 / 40 40 60 60
Animas 90 67 89 67 / 30 30 60 60
Hachita 87 65 87 65 / 20 30 50 70
Antelope Wells 87 65 87 66 / 20 20 60 70
Cloverdale 86 64 84 63 / 30 30 70 70
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...25-Hardiman