Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
290 FXUS64 KEPZ 071223 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 623 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 - Temperatures remain a few degrees above normal through the week. - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday with some locally heavy rain possible, favoring northern and eastern areas. - Drier conditions Thursday through Saturday, possibly trending back up Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1008 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Satellite shows positively tilted trough persisting from the Dakotas down across the Great Basin to SoCal. Southwest flow continues over the CWA. The last of the high level moisture from Octave is still streaming over the area. Meanwhile further south, Hurricane Priscilla slowly churns northwest hugging the Pacific Coast of the Baja. As mentioned before, she still is not contributing any moisture to our area, but she has allowed the sub-tropical ridge to build west across northern Mexico. Under this weak flow well aloft, mid-level flow has turned east and southeast, importing some moisture from the Gulf of America. At the surface a quasi-dryline is moving west into the CWA. It currently sits in the far eastern CWA, but the models showing it reaching at least the RG Valley by Tuesday afternoon and at least to the Cont Divide by late afternoon. Thus, this moisture which has already fueled a few showers/thunderstorms this evening over Otero and Hudspeth Counties should move further west Tuesday. With modest CAPE values and marginal shear, some storms could become strong to near severe. Unseasonably high PWs will also mean storms could produce some heavy rain, though storm motion looks to be around 15-20 mph, helping mitigate some flood potential. Wednesday should continue with this monsoon-ish pattern; more rain and storms. Thursday through Saturday...sub-tropical ridge forms a closed high center over west Texas. This will begin to shunt the moisture plume mostly north and west of the area. Slight chances of rain could materialize out west near the Arizona border. Sunday and Monday...both GFS/ECMWF show Pacific trough finally making some inroads eastward, and helping push moisture plume back over our area, along with drawing some moisture up from the tropical system-to-be Raymond. Looks like more rain both days. GFS even brings the remnants of Raymond up over our area Tuesday. Stay tuned as with most tropical features, the models are bound to change several more times. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Increasing low level moisture from southeast low level flow will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as early as 20Z at LRU and ELP, but more likely tonight after 00-01Z. Ceilings will remain in the VFR range, but brief periods of visibility restrictions will be more likely in any storms that develop. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 615 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Low level southeast winds will increase moisture across the area today, with showers and thunderstorms expected, especially across south-central New Mexico and the Sacramento Mountains. Quieter weather will prevail Thursday into Friday, but humidity levels will not drop off much. Shower and thunderstorm chances look to return late Saturday and into early next week as a more active pattern sets up. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 69 84 67 85 / 40 10 20 0 Sierra Blanca 59 79 57 80 / 20 10 0 10 Las Cruces 63 80 61 81 / 50 10 20 10 Alamogordo 60 81 60 81 / 30 20 10 0 Cloudcroft 44 57 43 58 / 60 30 10 10 Truth or Consequences 60 78 59 76 / 40 20 30 10 Silver City 56 74 56 73 / 20 30 30 20 Deming 64 83 63 83 / 30 20 20 10 Lordsburg 63 82 64 81 / 10 10 20 10 West El Paso Metro 68 82 67 83 / 40 10 20 0 Dell City 62 81 60 83 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 67 86 65 87 / 30 10 0 0 Loma Linda 60 74 58 76 / 30 10 10 0 Fabens 66 85 65 86 / 30 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 65 81 64 82 / 50 10 20 0 White Sands HQ 63 81 62 81 / 40 10 20 10 Jornada Range 62 80 60 79 / 30 20 20 10 Hatch 62 83 61 82 / 30 20 20 10 Columbus 65 84 65 85 / 30 10 20 10 Orogrande 61 79 60 79 / 40 10 20 0 Mayhill 49 67 48 68 / 60 30 10 10 Mescalero 49 70 47 71 / 60 30 20 10 Timberon 47 67 47 67 / 50 20 10 10 Winston 50 71 50 70 / 40 40 30 20 Hillsboro 56 77 57 76 / 40 30 30 10 Spaceport 58 79 58 79 / 30 20 20 10 Lake Roberts 52 75 51 75 / 20 40 30 20 Hurley 58 76 57 76 / 20 30 30 10 Cliff 60 83 60 81 / 10 30 30 20 Mule Creek 56 80 56 77 / 20 30 30 20 Faywood 58 76 58 75 / 20 30 30 10 Animas 63 83 63 83 / 10 10 20 10 Hachita 62 81 62 81 / 20 10 20 10 Antelope Wells 61 82 61 84 / 30 10 20 10 Cloverdale 60 79 60 79 / 10 10 20 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman