857
FXUS64 KEPZ 182004
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
204 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Windy and dusty conditions linger this evening, then breezy and
   cooler for Saturday with low to medium rain chances.

 - Lighter winds and warmer on Sunday.

 - Warm and dry next work week with generally light winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Another dusty, windy day has transpired today as southwest winds
have increased ahead of an upper low. Several dust storm warnings
remain in effect through the afternoon as VIS has been observed to
be a quarter mile or less in spots. Two main dust plumes are
ongoing: one from Hwy 9 NE into the Tularosa Basin, and the second
from Tornillo to the northeast. The dust is filling into El Paso
with worsening visibilities expected as we head into the evening.
We will continue to monitor satellite imagery and ground
observations for any further DSWs or if we`re lucky, early
cancellations. Like yesterday, the dust is expected to last into
the evening, but thin out after sunset once our winds begin to
decrease. Wind Advisories and Dust Advisories (now including all
of far west TX) are in place until 8pm.

For tonight, an upper-level low swings into the Four Corners with
the circulation reaching far enough south to give most areas a
chance of precip tomorrow. Areas to the N and W will have the best
chance of seeing rain/mtn snow (about 50%), while far west TX has
a slim chance of receiving measurable rainfall. Snow
accumulations of T-1" above 7000ft are expected with QPF of
generally less than 0.1". It will be a quick shot of precip with
the Pacific front as it pushes through Saturday afternoon. Winds
will stay breezy for Saturday (15-25 mph sustained), beginning
W-SW and shifting W-NW by the evening behind the front. The upper
low departs to the east into the TX panhandle Sat night.

The rest of the forecast looks pretty benign as zonal flow takes
over early in the week. The dryline sets up to our east by
midweek, but is expected to be a non-player for us. Non-
mentionable PoPs are in the grids for now for each afternoon later
in the period since the most likely scenario is the dryline stays
to the east. On the west side of the dryline, modest W-SW winds
persist with no major wind storms on the horizon. After a
seasonably cool weekend, temperatures rebound to above normal on
Monday, staying in the 80s for the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

W-SW winds are increasing to begin the forecast period, lofting
dust across much of the region. VIS below 1 mile is expected this
afternoon excluding KTCS which could also see VIS reduced to 5
miles or less. VIS reductions may last into the evening before
settling after sunset, similar to yesterday. As we track satellite
imagery and ground observations for blowing dust, amendments may
be needed this afternoon. Wind speeds of around 30kts with gusts
up to 45 kts are forecast this afternoon, slowly subsiding tonight
but staying breezy into tomorrow morning. An AWW was issued
earlier for KELP since winds will easily exceed criteria. Other
than FEW-SCT250 passing overhead, skies will be mainly clear,
outside of the blowing dust of course.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

High fire danger continues into the evening due to brisk winds from
the west-southwest and low humidity. Good overnight recoveries are
expected as an upper-level system brings moisture and rain/mtn
snow chances tonight and tomorrow. For Saturday, the added
moisture will help limit fire spread, but breezy west winds
continue, creating elevated fire danger. Fuels will moisten
somewhat as a result of this system, but will dry out again next
week under zonal/southwesterly flow aloft. After Saturday, the
rest of the forecast will have lighter winds and low humidity.
Cooler temperatures are forecast this weekend as the upper low
swings through, warming to above normal on Monday.

Min RHs will be 10-20% near the Int`l border, 20-35% elsewhere
Saturday; then 5-12% everywhere. Vent rates will be fair to very
good Sunday, mostly excellent all other days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  52  70  45  75 /   0  20   0   0
Sierra Blanca            46  73  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               43  64  35  72 /   0  40   0   0
Alamogordo               45  66  35  72 /   0  50  20   0
Cloudcroft               30  45  22  50 /   0  50  20   0
Truth or Consequences    44  62  37  73 /   0  50  10   0
Silver City              37  53  31  67 /  10  60   0   0
Deming                   42  65  34  74 /   0  50   0   0
Lordsburg                40  61  31  72 /   0  50   0   0
West El Paso Metro       51  68  45  73 /   0  20   0   0
Dell City                45  73  39  75 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             48  78  41  77 /   0  10   0   0
Loma Linda               45  64  39  67 /   0  20   0   0
Fabens                   48  73  42  75 /   0  20   0   0
Santa Teresa             47  66  39  71 /   0  30   0   0
White Sands HQ           50  66  43  73 /   0  40  10   0
Jornada Range            43  64  34  73 /   0  50  10   0
Hatch                    44  65  35  75 /   0  50  10   0
Columbus                 46  66  39  74 /   0  40   0   0
Orogrande                46  65  37  71 /   0  40  10   0
Mayhill                  35  57  29  64 /   0  40  20   0
Mescalero                35  55  25  61 /   0  50  30   0
Timberon                 31  53  24  60 /   0  40  10   0
Winston                  31  52  26  68 /  10  60  10   0
Hillsboro                39  60  33  73 /   0  50  10   0
Spaceport                40  62  31  72 /   0  50  10   0
Lake Roberts             28  53  17  68 /  10  60   0   0
Hurley                   35  58  29  70 /   0  50   0   0
Cliff                    36  61  28  75 /  20  50   0   0
Mule Creek               33  56  25  70 /  30  50   0   0
Faywood                  39  56  33  70 /   0  50   0   0
Animas                   40  64  34  73 /   0  40   0   0
Hachita                  41  62  33  72 /   0  50   0   0
Antelope Wells           41  65  35  75 /   0  50   0   0
Cloverdale               40  60  36  71 /   0  40   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
     Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
     Western El Paso County.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-
     Salt Basin-Western El Paso County.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
     056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for East
     Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento
     Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern
     Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500
     Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
     County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
     Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa
     Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
     7500 Feet.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for East Central
     Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana
     County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
     Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona
     Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
     Uplands of the Bootheel-West Central Tularosa Basin/White
     Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
     and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson