Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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121 FXUS64 KEPZ 300518 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1118 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 307 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024 High pressure aloft will persist over New Mexico for much of this week and into next weekend. This means continued warm temperatures, though a bit lower than the recent past, and little or no chance of rain through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Latest satellite showing large upper-level high anchored over Arizona/New Mexico, with weak trough over southern California. Mother nature has a pretty simple game plan for us this week. The upper high over AZ/NM will slowly weaken over the next two days as upper high over eastern Pacific then ridges eastward to replace the initial high. By Thursday and Friday this eastern Pac high then migrates eastward to eventually hover over New Mexico again. Bottom line...we remain dry with very few clouds and little or no chance of rain. Temperatures will remain well above normal Monday and then cool some, although still remaining above normal. Back door cool fronts Tuesday and Friday afternoons will help drop the temperatures. Cool front Tuesday does not look to add any moisture--just a bit of cooling. Models show cool front on Friday may add some moisture/lower clouds but still far out for that feature. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the period at all terminals. Overnight, skies will be clear or mostly clear. Winds will be light and variable. Aft 18z, expect FEW-SCT100-120 to develop, especially over the Gila region, and area mtns. There are slight chances for SHRA/TSRA over the Gila and Black Range, with a few showers or weak storms in vcty of KTCS aft 22Z. Winds will favor SE through SW and remain AOB 08KTS with occassional gusts to 15kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 307 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024 No significant concerns for fire weather. The entire forecast period will remain dry. Low min RHs will persist so fuels will continue their Autumn drying. However no significant winds are expected, so fire conditions should hover around elevated. Min RHs: Lowlands 10-17% through Friday. Mountains 17-30% through Friday. Vent rates fair-good through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 65 95 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 88 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 60 93 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 60 92 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 70 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 61 92 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 59 88 60 84 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 58 94 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 61 94 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 66 93 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 92 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 59 95 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 59 87 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 60 94 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 60 92 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 64 93 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 60 93 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 59 94 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 93 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 90 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 49 81 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 49 81 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 46 78 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 50 86 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 58 93 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 57 93 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 51 87 52 83 / 10 10 0 10 Hurley 56 90 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 52 95 53 91 / 10 0 0 10 Mule Creek 48 90 49 87 / 10 0 0 10 Faywood 59 90 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 59 94 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 58 92 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 58 93 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 60 89 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird