Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
250 FXUS64 KEPZ 132336 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 536 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 527 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - Abundant moisture from tropical remnants will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through Monday night. Storms may result in localized flooding. - Isolated thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by dry and temperate weather Thursday through the weekend. Near normal temperatures for mid-October. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1102 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Unsettled weather in the form of showers and thunderstorms will continue to dominate the near-term forecast as a surge of tropical snakes up the Sonoran Desert. The most significant activity, including a threat for localized heavy rain and possible flooding, is generally expected to be limited to the southernmost counties and areas west of the RGV. Temperatures will remain well below seasonal averages, with low-land highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s for today, and up to 10 to 15 degrees below average for some areas. The system responsible for Monday`s showers and storms will be slow to depart, taking a leisurely tour through SoCal. Strengthening southwest flow due to this placement will help to dry the Borderland out on Tuesday, however, keeping storms more localized to the eastern portion of the CWA. The system begins to whisk up into the Great Basin on Wednesday and tropical moisture is advected eastward. This will work to initiate a drying trend areawide, squashing precip chances through the remainder of the forecast period. Low- end breezy conditions will be possible late week as the system that brought our unsettled weather earlier in the week traverses the northern Rockies, thus tightening the pressure gradient across the Borderland. Otherwise, sunny conditions with below average temperatures will prevail. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Active and unsettled weather will prevail throughout the evening and overnight periods for this TAF cycle. SCT Shwrs and tstms will continue with periods of low CIGS and low VSBY. Expect rapidly changing flight CATs from VFR to MVRF and even IFR, as showers and ISOL TSTMs track across or VCTY of terminals. Most likely period for impacts will be 03-10Z. These shrws and storms will develop and track NE across the region. Lcl MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys can be expected due to direct hits by shwrs/tstms. AFT 10-12Z showers/storms look to track NE and out of the region. Improved conditions for tomorrow through much of the day, but with some lingering cloud cover, and a chance for another round of late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1102 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Abundant moisture will help to temper fire weather concerns through the early portion of the forecast period. Tropical moisture and rain in the early part of the week will keep minRH values in the 50 to 70 percent range for most areas. The storm system responsible for the unsettled weather will slide up into the Great Basin Tuesday, placing the Borderland into a regime of southwest flow aloft. A drying trend will take hold thereafter, with minRH values decreasing to 25 to 40 percent in the lowlands by Thursday through the weekend. Winds will generally be light but low-end breezy conditions will be possible in the afternoon later in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 65 86 65 86 / 70 30 30 0 Sierra Blanca 59 84 56 82 / 40 10 0 0 Las Cruces 59 80 60 81 / 60 40 40 0 Alamogordo 60 82 60 83 / 70 40 30 10 Cloudcroft 46 62 45 63 / 70 40 30 10 Truth or Consequences 59 77 59 79 / 60 40 40 0 Silver City 53 72 54 74 / 50 20 20 10 Deming 60 81 60 83 / 50 30 30 0 Lordsburg 59 77 57 80 / 30 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 65 83 65 84 / 70 30 30 0 Dell City 61 84 57 85 / 60 20 0 0 Fort Hancock 65 89 64 88 / 60 10 20 0 Loma Linda 59 79 57 78 / 80 30 30 0 Fabens 64 87 63 87 / 60 20 20 0 Santa Teresa 62 82 62 83 / 70 30 30 0 White Sands HQ 62 81 62 82 / 70 40 40 10 Jornada Range 60 80 60 80 / 70 50 50 0 Hatch 61 81 60 83 / 60 40 50 0 Columbus 61 81 61 83 / 40 30 30 0 Orogrande 59 80 59 81 / 80 30 30 0 Mayhill 51 72 49 73 / 70 30 20 10 Mescalero 50 73 50 74 / 70 40 30 10 Timberon 49 69 48 70 / 80 40 30 10 Winston 49 71 50 73 / 60 30 30 0 Hillsboro 55 77 56 79 / 60 40 40 0 Spaceport 58 77 57 79 / 60 50 50 0 Lake Roberts 49 72 50 75 / 50 20 30 10 Hurley 54 74 55 76 / 50 20 30 0 Cliff 57 78 55 80 / 50 20 10 0 Mule Creek 52 74 50 75 / 50 20 10 0 Faywood 56 73 56 75 / 50 30 40 0 Animas 58 80 56 82 / 20 0 0 0 Hachita 57 77 57 80 / 30 20 20 0 Antelope Wells 57 80 57 83 / 20 10 10 0 Cloverdale 56 73 54 75 / 10 10 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird