


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
364 FXUS64 KEPZ 150442 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1042 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1034 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - A channel of tropical moisture remains over the region. Aloft, a trough to our west will keep the atmosphere unsettled. This should allow for another day and evening with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday evening. However, most locations will stay dry. - Drier air moves in sharply from the west on Thursday. The rest of the week, and the weekend ahead, should be dry, with near zero chances for showers or thunderstorms. Temperatures will warm back to near normal temperatures for mid-October. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1034 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The pair of tropical storm systems that ejected abundantly deep moisture into our airmass are long gone history, but we yet to be able to scour out that moisture. In fact, several days after the storms demise, we continue with a relatively deep and rich moisture content. Just this evening, our weather balloon recorded nearly 1.25" of PWAT, with is more than double mid-October normals. We`ve been too cloudy and cool to be sharply unstable, but with some upper level drying, we are trending toward less cloud, more sun, warmer temperatures, and better instability. In addition, the longwave trough to our west will continue to send ripples of shortwave energy through the flow across our region. In addition, we are seeing some minor low-level convergence. All this means we will continue with POPS in the forecast for WED and WED evening. The CAM models are again suggesting minimal daylight activity, with a round of storms both tonight and again WED night, tracking in on disturbances moving north out of Mexico, directly into the Rio Grande Valley area (Skewed west tonight, and east tomorrow night). With the return of sunshine today, we saw more convective cloud development this afternoon, and warmer surface temperatures, with highs at and slightly above normal. The Borderland skies should repeat what we saw today, with another afternoon of near seasonal temperatures. Winds will favor southeasterly, and stay mostly light, with some afternoon breezes in the 10-15 mph range. Again, we will be watching for evening storms to fire and move in from the south over the RGV area and eastward. Thursday will be our "dryout" day as the upper low, embedded in the longwave, west coast trough, lifts from Las Vegas, NE into the Northern Rockies. This will give us an uptick in wind speeds, and turn them from SE and S to SW, which will pull in deep layer drier air. By the time the atmosphere warms enough to destabilize, the moisture will be east of our area, and we will be too dry to spark any showers or storms. Friday continues and intensifies the drying as another low pressure wave, drops in from the NW, and track directly over our CWA. We will see a further increase in winds, with near windy conditions, and more veering to the west, which will complete the drying. We will likely see a slight drop in temperatures. Following the Friday trough passage, high pressure aloft builds directly over the region. The high pressure won`t have a lot of effect on our temperatures, as it will be relatively weak and short- lived, but we will see seasonably dry conditions with near average temperatures. Going into next week, the GFS and EC models part ways, but both show low pressure systems developing upstream to our west. The GFS with a progressive pattern, tracking lows to our north, never connecting with any moisture, and keeping us dry, with breezy afternoons. The EC develops a cutoff low which does scoop moisture and directs it over our region, for rain chances TUE/WED. No confidence in either solution this far out. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 A round of late night storms have fired over the Rio Grande Valley, north of KLRU. With the exception of areas near this NE tracking area of storms, VFR conditions to prevail through the critical TAF period. KTCS and KLRU appear to have the better chances for impacts either VCTY or direct through 7-9Z. Any direct hits to terminals will result in lcl MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys. Activity is expected to move out the CWA aft 15/09Z but lingering low clouds and valley FG will be possible, resulting in lowered cigs/vsbys in and around sunrise. Early morning low clouds and fog will burn off by 15Z with VFR conditions for Wednesday, with far fewer clouds, and only slight risk of any pcpn. We could see another late evening round of convective development over the Rio Grande Valley and points east, similar to the TUE night storm activity. If those materialize, we would see ISO/TEMPO MVFR and IFR conditions most likely over KEPZ aft 03Z tomorrow evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 126 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Abundant moisture will continue to limit fire weather concerns throughout the forecast period. Another active night will bring showers and thunderstorms to the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley, some of which could become strong to severe with damaging winds and hail. A drying trend will take hold on Wednesday, allowing for a steady decrease in afternoon minRH. Values will dip into the teens to 20 percent range by the weekend, with localized instances of humidity near 15 percent in northern zones. Winds will increase slightly towards the end of the work week, becoming low-end breezy in the afternoon but staying well below critical thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 87 64 83 58 / 10 30 0 20 Sierra Blanca 82 58 82 53 / 10 0 0 10 Las Cruces 81 55 77 48 / 20 60 10 20 Alamogordo 82 60 79 50 / 30 30 10 10 Cloudcroft 63 45 58 38 / 40 20 10 10 Truth or Consequences 79 53 76 47 / 30 50 0 20 Silver City 73 46 68 42 / 20 20 10 10 Deming 83 52 78 47 / 10 40 10 20 Lordsburg 80 49 72 46 / 10 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 84 63 79 56 / 10 40 0 20 Dell City 84 60 84 53 / 10 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 88 64 87 58 / 10 0 0 10 Loma Linda 78 58 75 52 / 20 10 0 10 Fabens 87 61 83 55 / 10 10 0 10 Santa Teresa 83 59 78 51 / 10 50 0 20 White Sands HQ 82 61 79 53 / 30 50 0 20 Jornada Range 81 56 76 48 / 30 60 0 30 Hatch 83 54 79 47 / 20 60 0 30 Columbus 84 55 79 50 / 10 40 10 10 Orogrande 81 58 78 50 / 30 30 0 20 Mayhill 72 50 71 45 / 40 10 10 10 Mescalero 75 49 70 42 / 40 30 10 10 Timberon 69 47 67 42 / 40 20 10 10 Winston 72 41 70 35 / 20 40 10 10 Hillsboro 78 48 76 45 / 20 40 10 20 Spaceport 79 53 76 45 / 30 70 0 30 Lake Roberts 74 43 69 37 / 20 30 10 10 Hurley 76 46 71 42 / 10 20 10 10 Cliff 80 48 74 43 / 20 10 10 0 Mule Creek 74 44 69 40 / 20 10 10 0 Faywood 75 48 71 44 / 20 30 10 10 Animas 81 48 75 46 / 0 10 0 0 Hachita 81 48 75 45 / 10 10 10 10 Antelope Wells 83 49 77 47 / 10 10 0 0 Cloverdale 74 48 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird