Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
386
FXUS64 KEPZ 031247
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
647 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025
- Afternoon thunderstorms across the area today but drier air
will move in for the Fourth of July through Sunday.
- Temperatures will be below normal through Friday, then will
warm back up to above normal this weekend. Some areas will
reach 100 degrees again along the Rio Grande Lower Valley.
- Mostly dry Friday and Saturday but monsoonal thunderstorms
return Sunday and onward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025
The upper trough that has brought heavy rain to portions of the area
tonight will continue to progress eastward slowly tonight and
tomorrow. The upper trough will push drier air into western areas
tomorrow bringing PW values down to 1.1"-1.2" out west and higher
values of 1.4"-1.6" out east. Can expect another round of monsoonal
thunderstorms Thursday. Drier air pushing in from the west could
allow for some mid level drying allowing for the possibility of
hail. In addition, 0-6km bulk shear will be best closer to the
trough, models are suggesting values of 20-25KT which will help to
add some organization to storms in the Gila region, but not
expecting a lot of big hail producing storms. Gusty outflow winds
will still be a concern, but the worst of the winds should stay
west of the RGV. The biggest hazard will be flooding from storms as
moisture is still above average with slow storm motions of 5-10 mph.
The more prolific heavy rainstorms will be found eastward where
the best moisture is.
By Friday, the trough will have swept off and will bringing drier
than normal air to the northern portions of the area and shunting
moisture southward. Near average to above average moisture will be
found across the southern half of the CWA Friday leaving rain
chances fairly low as our usual trigger for storms (the Sacramento
Mtns and Blacks) may be missing due to not enough moisture to spark
up storms up there. Perhaps some isolated storms could occur in the
lowlands due to reaching the convective temperature. Even drier
conditions on Saturday as drier air continues to filter in. Moisture
will be below average areawide so expecting very limited storms if
any. In addition, high pressure looks to build in starting Saturday
and will persist through at least midweek. This will bring warmer
temperatures, especially over the weekend as El Paso is looking at
the return of triple digits both days. Recycled moisture trapped
under the high pressure will bring rain chances each day Sunday
through midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025
Overnight convection remnants are slowly moving northeast this
morning, and stray showers and MVFR ceilings are still possible at
TCS for a few more hours. With mixing, we could pop an MVFR cu or
stratocu field for an hour or two, but this would be most likely
where the heavier rain fell in the past 12 hours, and the
probability and impact is too low to carry in TAFs.
Convection coverage and timing is difficult today given the
debris clouds around and variability in instability. A weak
shortwave trough bisects the area currently, and will depart
before it can take advantage of diurnal heating. Areas near and
east of the Rio Grande will be slightly more favored than other
lowland areas this afternoon, and PROB30s for TSRA are in play at
ELP, TCS, and LRU this afternoon and evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 638 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025
One more day with monsoonal moisture in place and and least
scattered precipitation, though the coverage will be highly
variable. Expect warmer and drier conditions with near nil
precip chances Friday through Sunday afternoon. Highs will
climb a few degrees above normal this weekend, with 100s
possible in the lower deserts. Minimum RH values will even
drop into the lower 10s across the lowlands, though overnight
recovery will still be fair to good due to recent rainfall.
Monsoon moisture will attempt to bring precip chances back to
the area as early as Sunday night, despite the upper ridge
still being parked over New Mexico. PoPs are likely over-
represented in the NBM over western areas Sunday and Monday.
Some drier air may work in aloft towards mid to late next week as
easterly mid- level flow snags some continental air.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 88 74 96 75 / 40 40 0 0
Sierra Blanca 79 65 87 66 / 40 50 10 0
Las Cruces 85 68 92 68 / 40 40 0 0
Alamogordo 84 66 93 67 / 50 30 0 0
Cloudcroft 62 50 70 52 / 80 30 20 0
Truth or Consequences 85 68 93 70 / 70 30 0 0
Silver City 80 60 85 62 / 60 40 10 10
Deming 89 67 94 68 / 40 40 0 10
Lordsburg 87 65 91 66 / 40 40 20 10
West El Paso Metro 86 73 93 74 / 40 50 0 0
Dell City 83 68 91 67 / 40 30 0 0
Fort Hancock 86 72 95 71 / 40 40 0 0
Loma Linda 77 65 86 67 / 40 40 0 0
Fabens 86 72 94 71 / 40 40 0 0
Santa Teresa 84 71 92 71 / 50 50 0 0
White Sands HQ 84 71 93 72 / 40 40 0 0
Jornada Range 84 66 92 66 / 40 40 0 0
Hatch 88 68 95 67 / 50 40 0 0
Columbus 88 71 94 71 / 50 50 0 10
Orogrande 83 67 91 67 / 40 40 0 0
Mayhill 71 56 81 58 / 70 30 20 0
Mescalero 73 55 81 57 / 70 30 10 0
Timberon 69 52 78 55 / 70 30 10 0
Winston 77 55 86 57 / 80 30 10 0
Hillsboro 84 62 91 65 / 60 40 0 0
Spaceport 84 65 91 64 / 50 40 0 0
Lake Roberts 81 56 86 57 / 80 40 10 10
Hurley 83 62 88 63 / 60 40 10 10
Cliff 87 62 91 62 / 60 40 20 10
Mule Creek 83 60 87 60 / 60 40 20 10
Faywood 81 62 87 64 / 60 40 10 0
Animas 86 66 91 67 / 50 50 20 10
Hachita 86 65 91 67 / 50 50 10 10
Antelope Wells 84 66 89 66 / 60 60 20 10
Cloverdale 79 62 84 64 / 60 70 30 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$