696
FXUS64 KEPZ 222148
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
248 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

 - Cold mornings expected through the remainder of the work week

 - Warming trend this weekend with afternoon breeziness

 - The next upper level system approaches the area Monday bringing
   breezy conditions and slight chances for precipitation

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

Long wave UL trough continues to cover nearly the entire CONUS
with the Pacific ridge hugging the West Coast. This pattern
continues to keep us with an open tap to cold, arctic air although
temperatures have recovered nicely this afternoon after a rather
frigid start. A weak s/w trough near the Four Corners will swing
southeast through the High Plains, which will reinforce the cold
air in place. It will be another chilly morning with wind chill
values around 15 to 25 in the lowlands and near zero in the
mountains. We considered another cold weather advisory, but it
appears we will be just above criteria for all zones. The dilemma
temperatures will face is if winds die off quickly like they did
yesterday morning, actual air temperatures will be near advisory,
but if not, then actual air temperatures will be warmer with
colder wind chill values. LREF probabilities indicate chances less
than 30% for reaching apparent temperatures that meet our
criteria, but we will let the evening shift take a second look.

This cooler/colder air mass hangs around throughout the day on
Thursday with a drop in highs. Friday will be another cold morning
with ideal radiational cooling with the arctic air mass in place.
We used the 25th percentile for lows, but this morning the 5th
percentile verified. After the chilly start, highs will recover to
close to what we saw today.

Going into the weekend, flow aloft transitions from NW`LY to
SW`LY. This is a warming pattern, and highs will go above normal
for Saturday and Sunday. This pattern shift is courtesy of a
strengthening UL low expected to be over CA by Saturday morning.
Guidance has shown poor run-to-run consistency with the evolution
of the low, which is not unusual. By Monday or Tuesday, depending
on which ensemble/model/cluster you look at, the low will begin a
slow migration eastward. If it crosses southward toward the
international border, it will bring a chance for precipitation,
but a northern pass will limit chances to the mountains and make
for a wind event. Precip chances were trimmed back a bit from what
the NBM offered.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1003 AM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Light winds
this afternoon with an increase in high clouds but then clears
out north to south later tonight. A cold front will push in from
the north tonight bringing breezy conditions of 12-15G20-25KT as
it reaches terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

Another cold front will move through the area tonight and into the
morning, which will bring a drop in temperatures and modest
improvements to RH values. Winds will start off breezy but
decrease throughout the day. A warming trend begins for Friday
with highs back above normal for Saturday and Sunday. Min RH
values will be in the lower to mid teens for Saturday, but winds
will top out around 10 to 15 MPH. Winds will be similar for Sunday
with modest cooling while min RH values drop into the mid to upper
teens. Venting will be range fair to good for Thursday but drop to
poor for Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  24  45  21  50 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            18  41  15  49 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               18  44  15  48 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               13  42  10  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft                4  21   5  37 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    16  41  15  48 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              16  43  15  50 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   16  45  14  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                11  48  11  52 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       26  45  22  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                15  43  12  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             16  48  15  55 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               20  38  18  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   20  46  17  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             21  43  18  48 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           21  44  20  48 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            13  43  11  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    14  46  11  51 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 21  46  17  48 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                17  41  14  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                   9  32  10  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                 8  32   9  45 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                  8  31   7  44 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                   6  38   5  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                16  43  15  51 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                12  42  11  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             12  41  11  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   11  43  10  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                     3  52   2  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               16  45  15  53 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  17  43  16  48 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   14  48  11  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  15  45  12  50 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           19  45  16  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               23  44  21  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown