777
FXUS64 KEPZ 191138 AAA
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
538 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Breezy conditions and cooler Saturday with low to medium rain
   chances.

 - Lighter winds and warmer on Sunday.

 - Warm and dry next work week with generally light winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Center circulation of the upper low is evident on water vapor as the
system dives into AZ. The disturbance will take a sharp left turn
early in the morning, heading east along the I-40 corridor towards
NM. A scant fetch of moisture riding along the eastern of periphery
has already brought light precipitation to portions of AZ and
western NM, which will make its way into southwestern NM before
sunrise. Position and trajectory of the low will allow for western
and northern zones to be favored for valley rain and mountain snow
through the day today. While not a remarkable amount of
instability exists, a grumble of thunder here and there and
spattering of graupel are not out of the realm of possibilities.
QPF will be light and generally under 0.1" across southern NM,
with far west TX unlikely to see measurable precipitation at all
with this system. The Pacific front accompanying the system will
push through in the late morning to early afternoon hours, with
windy conditions likely persisting into the evening after the
fropa. Saturday will party to cooler temperatures thanks to the
colder air mass, with most locales seeing around a 10F reduction
from Friday`s readings. The low will eject into the Great Plains
Saturday night and temperatures will quickly rebound on Sunday
with rising pressure heights.

A regime of quasi-zonal flow sets up in the wake of the disturbance
into the work week. Generally benign weather will prevail for the
remainder of the forecast period. Models hint to the setup of the
dryline around mid to late week that could bring much needed
moisture to far west TX. That said, the most likely scenario is the
dryline remains just to our east, keeping the forecast area just
beyond its reach. Temperatures will settle near to above normal for
the work week amongst light winds and mostly clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Unsettled weather to persist through the first half of the TAF
period. Wly to swly winds will increase early, reaching peak gusts
of around 30 to 35 kts by the aftn. Isold shwrs will enter the
forecast area within the next hour or two, migrating ewd
throughout the morning. Any direct hits to terminals could create
brief and lcl MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys. The fropa will surge ewd,
likely passing thru KTCS/KDMN aft 19/15Z and KLRU/KELP aft 19/19Z.
Winds will remain elevated behind the fropa, tapering aft 20/03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 AM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Upper low moving through the Desert Southwest will bring increased
moisture today as well as cool temperatures and light
precipitation. With the influx of moisture, nearly all zones--save
for Hudspeth--will see minimum RH settle above critical
thresholds. Winds will be reduced from the previous two days but a
frontal passage will bring wind shifts throughout the day. Winds
are expected to stay gusty behind the front through to the
evening hours. Light precipitation will accompany the system but
wetting precipitation will likely be very localized, favoring the
southwest and south central mountains. While instability isn`t all
that impressive, a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out as
the frontal passage traverses the Borderland throughout the day.
Dry air will filter in behind the system on Sunday, bringing minRH
back into the low double and single digits. Light winds will work
to temper critical fire weather conditions. Zonal flow aloft will
take hold through the work week, resulting in very dry conditions
and generally light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  44  74  51 /  20   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            73  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               62  35  71  43 /  40   0   0   0
Alamogordo               65  35  72  42 /  50  20   0   0
Cloudcroft               43  22  49  30 /  60  30   0   0
Truth or Consequences    59  37  72  44 /  50  20   0   0
Silver City              52  31  68  40 /  60  10   0   0
Deming                   62  34  73  41 /  60   0   0   0
Lordsburg                60  32  72  39 /  60   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       67  44  72  52 /  20   0   0   0
Dell City                73  39  76  41 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             77  41  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               63  39  67  48 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   72  42  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             65  39  71  44 /  30   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           64  43  73  50 /  40  10   0   0
Jornada Range            63  34  72  39 /  50  10   0   0
Hatch                    63  35  74  40 /  50  10   0   0
Columbus                 65  39  74  44 /  40   0   0   0
Orogrande                65  37  71  43 /  40  10   0   0
Mayhill                  55  29  64  34 /  40  20   0   0
Mescalero                53  25  60  33 /  60  40   0   0
Timberon                 52  25  60  33 /  40  20   0   0
Winston                  51  26  68  32 /  60  20   0   0
Hillsboro                58  33  72  41 /  60  10   0   0
Spaceport                60  31  71  38 /  50  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             51  22  68  35 /  70  10   0   0
Hurley                   56  29  70  38 /  60  10   0   0
Cliff                    60  28  74  35 /  60  10   0   0
Mule Creek               55  28  70  38 /  60   0   0   0
Faywood                  55  33  70  41 /  60  10   0   0
Animas                   62  35  73  40 /  60   0   0   0
Hachita                  61  33  72  39 /  60   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           64  35  74  43 /  40   0   0   0
Cloverdale               59  36  71  45 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...99