Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 120852
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
252 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025
...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quick warming to well above normal, with 90s in the lowlands
Monday through Wednesday.
- Back to breezy today, then windy Tuesday and Wednesday.
Widespread areas of blowing dust expected Tuesday and
Wednesday with difficult travel possible.
- Critical fire weather conditions return today across western
zones, increasing in coverage and intensity Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025
Ridge of high pressure will continue moseying slowly eastward today,
allowing for another few degree uptick in high temperatures.
Meanwhile, an unseasonably potent low will crash into the PacNW, the
eastward extent of which working to compress the ridge`s western
periphery. This will bring breezy to locally windy conditions to
western zones in the afternoon and the potential for patchy
blowing dust in and around the Lordsburg Playa. The ridge will
break down overnight ahead of the trough, allowing the H5 pressure
gradient to tighten considerably, leading to strengthening winds
across the high terrain. Winds will strengthen areawide Tuesday
afternoon as the flow aloft increases, with Wind Advisory speeds
being seen across most zones. A new development on the 00Z GFS is
the presence of a 50 kt bullseye at 700 mb across the southwest
and south central mts. This could lead to strong gusts being mixed
down at the sfc but given the lack of run-to-run consistency, did
decide to hold off on hoisting any highlights for the
aforementioned zones. Should the feature persist, high wind
highlights may be needed in future updates.
The system digs into the Great Basin Tuesday night, letting the
tight H5 pressure gradient persist over the Borderland into
Wednesday. Another day of windy to very windy conditions will be on
tap as the system swings eastward towards the Rockies. A cool
down will take hold with the passing of the trough, with most
locales seeing a 4F to 8F reduction from Tuesday`s readings. The
magnitude and direction of the winds will cause areas of blowing
dust for the Borderland both Tuesday and Wednesday, especially
across the I-10 and Hwy 9 corridor. Winds will die down Wednesday
evening, setting the stage for a calm and cool night.
As the system ejects towards the Great Lakes, a secondary piece of
energy will find its way into the Desert Southwest. Baggy and
weak, this shortwave will have little impact to sensible weather
but will allow for temperatures to not rebound as quickly.
Relatively benign weather will prevail through the week`s end but
another amplified system will begin to slide into the PacNW on
Saturday night. This will put another round of wind and dust on
the menu to start next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Sun May 11 2025
Winds AOB 8kts continue through mid-morning mainly from S with some
variability. Winds become gusty Monday afternoon to around 25kts,
shifting W-SW. Patchy BLDU may lower VIS to below 5 SM outside of
KTCS but not confident enough to add to this TAF cycle. We`ll
monitor satellite imagery and ground observations for areas of
blowing dust and possible TAF amendments later in the day. SCT-
BKN250 to pass overhead throughout the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025
...EXTENDED DURATION OF CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Ridge of high pressure overhead will begin breaking down today, with
wind speeds out west picking up this afternoon. This in the presence
of low humidity will lead to near-critical to critical fire weather
conditions across the southwest deserts. Critical fire weather
conditions will expand in coverage and intensity Tuesday as a potent
trough digs into the Great Basin. Wind speeds will increase early on
Tuesday, with gusts around 50 mph commonplace nearly areawide.
Minimum relative humidity with settle in the single to low double
digits with the exception of the high terrain, which will hover
just above critical thresholds. This combination, along with dry
fuels, will create areas of extreme fire weather conditions, which
will persist into Wednesday as the system moves toward the
Rockies. Given the areal coverage of gusty winds and low humidity,
did decide to add Hudspeth County to the Fire Weather Watch for
Tuesday.
As the trough swings through on Wednesday, even drier air will
filter into the Borderland, creating single digit RH nearly
areawide, save for the far east zones and the high terrain. Cooler
temperatures will take hold Wednesday afternoon compared to
Tuesday`s readings. Further drying will occur as the system ejects
eastward on Thursday, with low single digit humidity expected
across a bulk of southern New Mexico. Winds will relax
significantly, helping to limit critical fire weather conditions
through Saturday but poor overnight recovery and extremely low
minRH will keep conditions elevated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 94 70 96 70 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 89 62 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 91 62 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 91 62 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 66 49 67 48 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 91 61 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 83 53 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 93 59 93 59 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 91 58 89 56 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 92 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 93 64 95 64 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 96 65 99 67 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 86 63 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 94 67 97 67 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 91 65 92 64 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 91 68 92 68 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 91 61 91 59 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 93 63 93 60 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 93 65 94 64 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 90 63 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 78 54 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 77 53 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 76 51 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 82 50 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 88 58 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 91 58 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 82 49 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 86 53 85 52 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 89 53 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 85 52 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 86 56 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 92 59 91 59 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 91 59 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 90 60 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 85 57 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire
Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County-
Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South
Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ-
South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
evening for Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
BLM/GLZ.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...99