Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 262055
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
255 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025
...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 428 AM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025
- Southwest winds will become increasingly breezy on this
afternoon.
- Strong winds and blowing dust will return to the region on
Sunday, accompanied by critical to extreme fire weather
conditions.
- Breezy to low end windy conditions with patchy blowing dust
mainly closer to the International Border.
- Seasonal weather with afternoon breezes Tuesday onward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025
The quiet weather currently being seen across the Borderland will
come to an end on Sunday. Satellite and water vapor imagery this
afternoon shows the upper trough/low currently along the
California coast. An analysis of deterministic model guidance this
afternoon shows the upper trough moving east into eastern Nevada
sometime late tonight. As the trough moves progresses eastward
into Utah on Sunday a lee side trough will develop over portions
of eastern and northeast Colorado on Sunday afternoon. The
combination of the approaching upper trough and developing lee
trough will allowing strong winds to develop across the Borderland
on Sunday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show a 70-75kt 500mb jet over much of the
area by Sunday morning. An analysis of BUFKIT soundings on Sunday
show mixing up as high as 600mb with winds up to 50 kts possible
over portions of southern New Mexico with gusts up to 60 mph by
Sunday afternoon. With the orientation of winds likely to be in
the 230-250 direction or southwest, dust will again be an issue as
early as late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon across
southwest and southern New Mexico and far west Texas. A Blowing
Dust Advisory will go in effect 11am to 7pm across portions of
southwest and southern New Mexico and far west Texas with
visibilities at times between one mile and one-quarter mile across
the area. A few Dust Storm Warnings appear likely on Sunday as
the wind direction orientation will activate localized dust
sources across southern and New Mexico and northern Chihuahua
state. Temperatures on Sunday will be roughly 7-10 degrees above
normal across the area on Sunday. Model analysis shows 850mb
temperatures over the El Paso area around 27C on Sunday afternoon,
which will yield high temperatures mainly east of the Divide in
the upper 80s to lower 90s in the lowlands, with temperatures in
the upper 70s to low 80s in the mountains. The record high for
Sunday is 96 degrees set in 1996. A look at NBM probabilities show
a 38% chance of tying the record of 96 degrees on Sunday. As we
head into Monday, models show the upper trough further deepening
across the west US with 60-65kt 500mb jet remaining over much of
the Borderland with blowing dust again being an issue across the
area on Monday afternoon.
By Monday night into Tuesday, the upper trough moves east across
the Borderland with breezy conditions and perhaps some patchy
blowing dust again possible across portions of southwest and southern
New Mexico and far west Texas, but impacts for Tuesday look to be
minor in comparison to Sunday. As we move into Tuesday night, a
short wave ridge build into Borderland bringing lighter winds to
the area and persisting through at least Thursday. By Thursday,
another upper trough pushes onshore along the California coast.
The aforementioned trough will remain along the US west coast
through Friday. Temperatures will remain at seasonal values
through the work week across the Borderland.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 AM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through most of the forecast period
across the area. Skies will be SKC at all terminals with
afternoon breezes this afternoon up to 20 kts in the lowlands and
22 kts in the mountains. Winds will become light after sunset and
persist through the early morning hours on Sunday, then winds will
ramp up rapidly by mid morning Sunday becoming windy with blowing
dust, which could lead to short duration drops in visibility
ahead as a Pacific storm system approaches the Borderland.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 112 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025
An upper level trough will approach the Borderland on Sunday
combined with a lee side surface trough will yield strong winds
across much of the area on Sunday. Min RH values will be in the
single digits across the area along with very dry fuels will lead
to CRITICAL to EXTREME fire weather conditions on Sunday. A Red
Flag Warning will go in effect starting at 11 am Sunday morning
through 9 pm Sunday night. Min RH values will stay in the single
digits through early next week with breezy conditions on Monday
may approach Red Flag Warning criteria. Vent rate through Monday
will be excellent then good to excellent on Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 60 93 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 56 90 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 50 86 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 54 88 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 43 65 38 58 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 51 83 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 44 74 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 48 87 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 44 82 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 61 90 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 51 93 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 57 97 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 56 85 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 56 95 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 54 89 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 60 88 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 51 87 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 51 88 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 53 88 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 53 88 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 48 77 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 45 75 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 43 74 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 39 73 30 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 48 80 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 48 84 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 40 74 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 42 78 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 41 79 35 76 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 42 72 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 46 78 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 47 82 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 46 83 42 80 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 47 83 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 46 75 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Texas Fire
Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
056 Hudspeth County.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Northern
Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Salt Basin.
Blowing Dust Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-Western El Paso County.
High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Western El Paso County.
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Capitan and
Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila
NF/Apache NF/GLZ.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Otero Mesa-
Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest
Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Uplands of the Bootheel.
Blowing Dust Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for East
Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-
Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla
Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
Bootheel-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.
High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for East Central
Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains
Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Northern Dona
Ana County-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra
County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa
Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...41-Kelly