278
FXUS64 KEPZ 070531
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1031 PM MST Wed Nov 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM MST Wed Nov 6 2024

A Pacific frontal system entering northwest New Mexico will
continue south our forecast area tonight. This will produce some
showers later this evening, mainly over the mountains. These
showers will quickly turn to snow overnight with snow
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible by Friday morning across
the mountains. Thursday will be a chilly day as some showers
continue. The clouds and showers should end by mid day Friday as
the upper low moves off to our north. The rest of the weekend into
the first half of next will remain dry with much warmer
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM MST Wed Nov 6 2024

Pacific storm system continues to drop southward as it gradually
pushes clouds and eventually some showers to our forecast area.
Upper low currently near the Four Corners will drop south down
eastern Arizona Thursday morning and then turning the corner into
and across southern New Mexico. Shortwaves rotating around the
low will push clouds in this evening. One wave produced a plume of
mid/high clouds over the eastern CWA while the next one is
developing a wider band of clouds just entering the northwest CWA.
This band will contain showers, mostly for the mountains, for the
overnight hours. Further cloud development will occur on Thursday
with showers within these clouds. Synthetic cloud forecast imagery
from the WRF shows this development overnight, but clouds limited
mostly to areas north and east of Las Cruces. As cold air comes in
overnight, snow levels will fall rapidly. By Thursday morning
snow levels will fall to around 5500 ft in the Gila/Black Range,
and to 6500 ft in the Sacs. Some moderate snow is possible, and
our Winter Watches from yesterday are now Snow Advisories as
models have gradually decreased snow accumulations. Thus will keep
3 to 6 inches in our forecast, through Friday morning. Still some
concern for mixed precip over the lowlands of Sierra County,
though models showing this less likely.

Thursday will be quite chilly as cold air funnels in behind the
surface front. Temperatures will be well below normal with some
breezes. Models take the low into the Texas Panhandle mid-day
Friday, ending the clouds and showers. Short wave ridge moves in
Saturday to begin a stretch of dry, warmer weather. Temperatures
will be back to near normal Sunday and then above normal Monday
and Tuesday. Both GFS/ECMWF swing upper trough across New Mexico
Tuesday and Wednesday. Breezy both days and cooler Wednesday
behind the Pacific cool front that swings through. Pattern
recognition would indicate stronger winds especially Tuesday but
model winds not real impressive.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 PM MST Wed Nov 6 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected, however, especially at TCS,
there will likely be occasional reductions to MVFR overnight. This
is thanks to an approaching upper-level system that is bringing
widespread clouds with bases 025 to 110. 0530z radar showed a
band of showers from west of DMN to TCS with a few lightning
strikes noted toward KALM/Alamogordo. Light rain is a guarantee at
TCS, but there is at least a slight chance for rain at all TAF
sites. Snow may mix in with the rain at TCS. Rain chances end late
afternoon into early evening, west to east.

Winds will be breezy overnight, generally from the north to
northeast with speeds around 10 knots and occasional gusts to 20
knots. These winds will become southerly by tomorrow afternoon
with speeds around 10 knots.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM MST Wed Nov 6 2024

Cool and showery tonight through Friday morning, with some
moderate snowfall across the mountain zones. Dry and warmer Saturday
and beyond with fuels drying out again. No significant winds
expected after Thursday.

Min RHs: Lowlands 20-35% Thursday and Friday, decreasing to 15-25%
Saturday through Monday. Mountains 35-50% Thursday/Friday and
15-30% Saturday through Monday. Vent rates good-very good Thursday
and Friday, then poor-fair Saturday through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  45  62  37  60 /  20  20  20  10
Sierra Blanca            37  63  38  55 /  10  10  20   0
Las Cruces               39  55  33  57 /  30  50  30  10
Alamogordo               39  54  36  52 /  60  80  40  30
Cloudcroft               20  37  18  33 /  60  80  40  40
Truth or Consequences    35  47  34  53 /  60  80  30  30
Silver City              34  43  28  51 /  50  60  20  10
Deming                   37  53  30  58 /  20  30  20  10
Lordsburg                35  52  27  56 /  20  20  10   0
West El Paso Metro       47  61  40  58 /  20  20  20  10
Dell City                40  62  38  59 /  20  30  30  10
Fort Hancock             40  65  38  62 /  10  20  10   0
Loma Linda               40  55  36  50 /  20  20  20  10
Fabens                   42  67  36  60 /  20  20  10   0
Santa Teresa             42  58  33  56 /  20  20  20  10
White Sands HQ           44  56  39  56 /  40  70  30  10
Jornada Range            40  54  33  55 /  50  80  30  20
Hatch                    38  56  36  59 /  60  80  30  20
Columbus                 40  58  33  58 /  20  20  10   0
Orogrande                41  56  36  53 /  30  80  40  20
Mayhill                  24  38  24  44 /  60  70  50  30
Mescalero                25  44  22  41 /  60  80  40  40
Timberon                 25  44  22  41 /  50  70  40  20
Winston                  24  40  22  43 /  50  80  40  20
Hillsboro                31  50  30  54 /  50  80  30  20
Spaceport                37  52  33  54 /  60  80  40  30
Lake Roberts             32  43  25  50 /  50  70  30  20
Hurley                   35  45  26  53 /  40  60  20  10
Cliff                    34  48  28  57 /  40  50  20  10
Mule Creek               35  46  28  53 /  30  40  20  10
Faywood                  35  49  29  53 /  40  70  20  10
Animas                   33  54  28  57 /  20  20   0   0
Hachita                  35  55  27  56 /  20  20   0   0
Antelope Wells           35  57  29  59 /  20  10   0   0
Cloverdale               32  48  29  53 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Thursday for NMZ426.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Friday for NMZ414>416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown