671
FXUS64 KEPZ 150520
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1020 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 137 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

Dry and warm conditions persist into Saturday as winds become
brisk. A deepening storm system arrives on Sunday, bringing rain
and mountain snow showers to the region. Light to moderate snow
accumulations are forecast for the Sacramento Mountains Sunday
night. Breezy winds return for Monday as temperatures drop to
below normal for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

Tranquil weather continues through Friday under southwesterly flow.
The upper ridge shifts to the east, allowing temperatures to warm
further above normal tomorrow. Afternoon highs approach 80
degrees in El Paso, not too far from the daily record high of 82.
Lee troughing develops during the day along the Front Range,
resulting in breezy afternoon winds (10-20 mph sustained) on
Friday under mainly clear skies. For Saturday, the upper trough
digging into the Great Basin tightens the pressure gradient
further, giving us another day of breezy SW winds with dry
conditions. The Sacs and east slopes will see stronger winds
(~50% chance of 48+ mph max gust in Cloudcroft) while others see
gusts to 35 mph. There is a low chance that the Sacs will need a
Wind Advisory for Saturday. KELP comparatively has a 12% chance of
gusting to 48 mph or higher.

A strong jet streak on the backside of the trough will force the
low to dig further south on Sunday into the Gulf of CA.
Subtropical moisture is pulled northward ahead of the system,
increasing cloud cover on Saturday and precip chances that night.
Sunday will be a soggy day for us as the low pushes through Sonora
and crosses into the CWA Sunday night. Scattered to widespread
rain showers are forecast for Sunday with snow levels holding
around 7kft in the Gila Region and 9kft in the Sacs.

The relatively warm, southerly flow ahead of the low will keep
the precip as rain through the day on Sunday, except the highest
elevations such as Sierra Blanca Peak and Sunspot. As the low
treks across the CWA Sunday night and brings in colder air, snow
levels fall to about 7500ft in the Sacs. Scattered to widespread
rain/snow showers are forecast Sunday night in the Sacs. The
official forecast is for 3-6" above 8kft, which is right around
the 75th percentile NBM. The NBM shows a 10-20% chance of 6" or
more from the storm in the Sacs. Comparing the 12z ensemble runs,
the GEFS is less excited about snowfall (1-3" as median) while the
ENS shows 3-6" as the median. As for the Gila Region/Blacks,
light accumulations of 1-3" above 7kft are forecast, mainly in
uninhabited areas.

Forecast QPF of 0.5-1" from the storm is near the NBM
75th percentile with a 10-25% chance of over 1". Lower rain totals
are expected west of the Divide and in Hudspeth county. The
system quickly ejects to the east on Monday with lingering wrap-
around showers in northeastern areas. Breezy winds return for
Monday due to a tight post-frontal pressure gradient. Eastern
areas and mountain slopes will see gusts up to 40 mph, especially
in the morning when the gradient is most pronounced.

A second disturbance passes through the region on Tuesday,
bringing low rain/mountain snow chances, especially in northern
areas. A couple backdoor cold fronts look to push through around
midweek, keeping temperatures 10-20 degrees below normal to end
the period. El Paso has a 36% chance of dropping to the freezing
mark for the first time this season Wed AM and 54% chance Thu AM;
11% chance of 28 degrees or below Wed AM and 24% Thu AM. High
temps struggle to get out of the 50s in the lowlands next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1018 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC. Winds
light (2-6 knots) and VRB through the morning, becoming breezy
during the afternoon out of the SW at 10-15 knots with gusts to
20-25 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 137 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

Elevated fire weather concerns are forecast for Friday due to
breezy southwest winds developing and low humidities. Fuels
continue to dry out west of the Rio Grande tomorrow with better
mixing heights Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions linger on
Saturday as winds remain breezy. FWZ 113 will see stronger winds
of 20-25 mph at 20-ft for Sat, contributing to elevated fire
danger. A storm system arrives on Sunday, bringing rain and
mountain snow showers to the region and plenty of moisture.
Wetting rains and light-moderate mountain snow is expected by
Monday before the system departs. Breezy winds linger for Monday.
Low rain/mountain snow chances accompany a second system on
Tuesday. Temperatures will be above normal into Saturday, then
falling to well below average next week.

Min RHs will be 8-15% Friday, rising to 40-65% on Sunday. Vent
rates range from good to excellent Friday, then mostly excellent
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  47  78  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            45  78  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               39  75  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               41  74  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               36  55  36  48 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    38  73  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              41  68  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   35  76  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                36  75  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       48  76  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                39  78  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             44  83  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               47  71  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   43  80  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             40  75  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           46  75  49  70 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            36  73  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    34  76  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 38  77  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                41  73  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  39  68  43  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                38  65  39  58 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 36  63  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  31  66  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                37  73  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                34  72  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             28  68  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   35  71  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    33  75  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               29  67  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  39  69  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   36  76  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  33  76  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           37  77  41  69 /   0   0   0  10
Cloverdale               44  68  39  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers