208
FXUS64 KEPZ 142321
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
521 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 517 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

 - Abundant moisture from tropical remnants remain over the
   region. A slow moving west coast trough will keep the
   atmosphere unsettled with isolated to scattered showers and
   thunderstorms for Tuesday and Wednesday. Some storms could
   become strong to severe Tuesday night.

 - Drier air begins to move in from the west Thursday, with a dry
   weekend ahead. Temperatures will warm back to near normal
   temperatures for mid-October.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Burly upper low will scoot into CA today as a stout upper high
hangs over the ArkLaTex region. This will place the Borderland in
a regime of brisk southwest flow aloft amongst tropical remnant
moisture. Overnight debris clouds are clearing across the CWA,
opening us up for bountiful sunshine this afternoon. A ridge of
theta-e in the vicinity of the RGV will serve as the focus point
for convective activity this evening and into the overnight
period. With 0-6km shear values of around 35 to 45 kts and plenty
of residual instability from the afternoon`s heating, isolated
storms are likely initiate, being capable of organizing and
producing strong winds and large hail. Lingering tropical moisture
will allow storms to be efficient rainmakers, thus enhancing the
flash flooding risk in the overnight hours.

The threat will subside before sunrise as advancement of the upper
low into the Great Basin forces dry air to intrude across the
Desert Southwest. While a rogue storm or two will be possible
across the high terrain and the lowlands Wednesday night, an
overall drying trend will reign supreme through the weekend.
Temperatures will maintain their below normal persuasion through
the end of the week, finally reaching above normal (for a short
stint) on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions to prevail through the critical TAF period. A round
of late evening SHRA and TSRA possible around 03-04Z, developing S
and in VCTY of KELP, and moving N. KLRU and KTCS could be impacted
aft 04-05Z. Isold shwrs and tstms will favor areas along the Rio
Grande Valley. Some tstms may become strong to severe, capable of
strong winds and large hail. Any direct hits to terminals will
result in lcl MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys. Activity is expected to move
out the CWA aft 15/09Z but lingering low clouds and valley FG will
be possible, resulting in lowered cigs/vsbys in and around
sunrise. Early morning low clouds and fog will burn off by 15Z
with VFR conditions for Wednesday, with far fewer clouds, and only
slight risk of any pcpn.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Abundant moisture will continue to limit fire weather concerns
throughout the forecast period. Another active night will bring
showers and thunderstorms to the vicinity of the Rio Grande
Valley, some of which could become strong to severe with damaging
winds and hail. A drying trend will take hold on Wednesday,
allowing for a steady decrease in afternoon minRH. Values will dip
into the teens to 20 percent range by the weekend, with localized
instances of humidity near 15 percent in northern zones. Winds
will increase slightly towards the end of the work week, becoming
low-end breezy in the afternoon but staying well below critical
thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  66  87  64  83 /  30   0  20   0
Sierra Blanca            57  82  57  82 /   0   0  10  10
Las Cruces               60  82  55  77 /  60   0  30   0
Alamogordo               60  83  60  79 /  30  10  10   0
Cloudcroft               46  64  45  59 /  20  10  10  10
Truth or Consequences    60  80  53  76 /  50   0  20   0
Silver City              55  73  46  67 /  20  10  10   0
Deming                   60  83  52  78 /  50  10  10   0
Lordsburg                59  80  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       65  85  63  79 /  40   0  30   0
Dell City                57  85  60  84 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             65  88  64  86 /  10   0  10  10
Loma Linda               57  79  57  75 /  10   0  10   0
Fabens                   64  88  62  83 /  10   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             62  84  59  78 /  50   0  30   0
White Sands HQ           62  82  60  78 /  50   0  20   0
Jornada Range            60  81  56  76 /  60  10  30   0
Hatch                    60  83  55  78 /  60   0  20   0
Columbus                 62  84  55  78 /  40  10  10   0
Orogrande                60  82  57  78 /  30   0  20   0
Mayhill                  49  73  50  70 /  10  10  10  10
Mescalero                50  76  50  70 /  30  20  10  10
Timberon                 48  69  47  67 /  20  10  10  10
Winston                  50  72  42  70 /  40   0  10   0
Hillsboro                56  78  48  75 /  50   0  10   0
Spaceport                57  80  52  75 /  60  10  20   0
Lake Roberts             51  75  43  69 /  30  10  10   0
Hurley                   56  76  47  70 /  30  10  10   0
Cliff                    56  80  48  73 /  10  10   0   0
Mule Creek               51  75  45  68 /  10  10   0   0
Faywood                  57  75  48  70 /  40  10  10   0
Animas                   57  81  49  75 /  10   0   0   0
Hachita                  58  81  48  74 /  20  10   0   0
Antelope Wells           57  83  50  77 /  10   0   0   0
Cloverdale               54  75  48  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird