Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
821
FXUS64 KEPZ 022014
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
214 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025
...New FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025
- We will see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
today. Heavy rain and flash flooding is possible mainly west
of the Rio Grande.
- Drier air will move in for the Forth of July through Sunday.
- Temperatures will be below normal through Friday, then will
warm back up to above normal this weekend. Some areas will
reach 100 degrees again along the Rio Grande Lower Valley.
- Rain chances start to creep back into the forecast as we move
further into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1058 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025
To get thunderstorms, you need three things, moisture, lift and
instability. We have one of those things, moisture, in abundance,
but the other two are lacking. The lift and the instability are
still on the low side of things. We are already seeing showers
develop across the region, but they are struggling without the
instability and lift. Later today, an upper level trough to our
west will begin to move in our direction which will increase our
lift and instability a little. So we will see more widespread
convection this afternoon and evening. Where thunderstorms do get
up and going, with the abundant moisture, we could see some heavy
rainfall in places. The showers and thunderstorms look to slow
down during the overnight hours, but as the upper level trough
gets a little closer we will see more showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday, with the better chance for rain east of the Rio Grande
this time.
For Friday and into the weekend, as the upper level trough moves
to our east, it will sweep in drier air, which will greatly reduce
our rain chances and it will creep our high temperatures back a
little above average. For Saturday and Sunday, we will be
generally hot and dry as an upper level ridge settles over New
Mexico. High temperatures both days will run 3 to 5 degrees above
average, which will allow many lowland locations to hit the triple
digit mark.
For the first of next week, the position of the upper level high
will make all the difference for our rain chances. If the ridge
stay centered near New Mexico, it will limit our rain chances and
keep our highs above average, but if the upper level ridge drifts
to our west, as the models indicate, the ridge will be able to
pull down some recycled monsoon moisture from up north. By midweek
next week, the deterministic GFS has the upper level ridge over
the intermountain west which would be good for rain chances, while
the deterministic ECMWF keeps the ridge centered much closer to
New Mexico which would limit convection. For now I`ve gone down
the middle of these two and brought rain chances back into the
forecast, but I haven`t hit things too hard yet.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025
Deep monsoonal moisture interacting with an approaching upper-
level disturbance will fuel scattered to numerous thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for
thunderstorm activity will be across the higher terrain of
southwest New Mexico, impacting the KDMN and KTCS terminals
primarily after 03Z. For this reason, PROB30 groups have been
included for thunderstorms, which could produce heavy rain, gusty
outflow winds, and MVFR ceilings/visibility. For KELP and KLRU,
the primary impact will be lower ceilings and periods of showers.
I have included PRBO30`s for those stations as well, but my
confidence is not as high as for KTCS and KDMN. Winds will
generally remain southeasterly and light, outside of any
convective outflows.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025
Deep monsoonal moisture combined with an approaching upper-level
trough will fuel scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
today and Thursday. The highest potential for heavy rain and
flash flooding is west of the Rio Grande today, with a Flood Watch
in effect for much of southern New Mexico. The focus for
precipitation will shift eastward on Thursday. Temperatures will
remain below normal with light winds. Ventilation rates will be
poor to fair, especially in eastern areas today, with some
improvement in western zones on Thursday. Critical fire weather
conditions are not expected.
A significant drying and warming trend will begin on Friday and
continue through the weekend as the trough exits and an upper-
level ridge builds over the region. This will lead to greatly
reduced rain chances and temperatures climbing to above-normal
readings, with many lowland locations reaching the 100-degree
mark. Winds will remain light, but deeper mixing will allow
ventilation rates to improve to good or very good. By early next
week, the position of the ridge becomes less certain, but models
indicate a potential for monsoonal moisture to return,
reintroducing precipitation chances. No critical fire weather is
anticipated during this period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 71 90 74 98 / 70 40 40 0
Sierra Blanca 64 80 65 88 / 70 70 50 10
Las Cruces 66 88 67 95 / 80 50 50 0
Alamogordo 65 87 66 94 / 60 70 40 10
Cloudcroft 48 65 50 71 / 50 80 30 20
Truth or Consequences 68 88 68 95 / 70 60 30 0
Silver City 59 81 61 86 / 80 80 50 20
Deming 68 91 68 97 / 80 60 50 10
Lordsburg 66 88 66 92 / 80 70 60 30
West El Paso Metro 71 88 74 94 / 80 40 50 0
Dell City 66 83 68 93 / 50 50 20 0
Fort Hancock 70 88 71 95 / 70 60 50 10
Loma Linda 64 79 65 87 / 60 50 30 0
Fabens 69 88 71 95 / 70 50 40 0
Santa Teresa 68 87 71 93 / 80 50 50 0
White Sands HQ 70 88 71 95 / 70 50 50 0
Jornada Range 66 88 66 94 / 70 60 50 10
Hatch 67 91 68 96 / 70 60 50 0
Columbus 70 91 72 95 / 80 50 60 10
Orogrande 67 85 67 92 / 60 60 40 0
Mayhill 53 74 55 81 / 60 90 30 20
Mescalero 53 76 55 83 / 50 80 30 20
Timberon 52 71 52 79 / 60 80 40 10
Winston 55 80 56 86 / 70 80 40 10
Hillsboro 62 86 63 92 / 70 70 50 10
Spaceport 65 87 65 93 / 70 70 40 0
Lake Roberts 56 83 56 88 / 90 80 50 20
Hurley 61 85 62 90 / 80 70 40 20
Cliff 64 89 64 93 / 90 80 50 20
Mule Creek 61 84 61 88 / 90 80 40 20
Faywood 63 83 64 89 / 80 80 40 10
Animas 67 88 66 92 / 70 70 70 40
Hachita 65 87 66 92 / 80 70 60 20
Antelope Wells 65 86 66 90 / 90 80 80 50
Cloverdale 62 81 63 85 / 90 80 80 70
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Grant County/Silver
City Area-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southern Gila
Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Slopes Sacramento
Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice