


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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719 FXUS64 KEPZ 141129 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 529 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 528 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Abundant moisture from tropical remnants remain over the region. A slow moving west coast trough will keep will bring the atmosphere unsettled. This means a continuation of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday and Wednesday. result in localized flooding. - Drier air begins to move in from the west Thursday, with a dry weekend ahead. Temperatures will warm back to near normal temperatures for mid-October. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1045 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Tomorrow will start a transition, but it won`t come quickly, as we begin to see the end of deep tropical moisture infiltration. Water Vapor imagery is already showing a sharp drying signature working in from the south and the west, especially aloft, but we will continue to have plenty of mid and lower level moisture streaming across the area. Dewpoints will remain in the 50s, with well above normal PWATs. However, we have been under performing on the sounding PWAT vs. the model PWAT. i.e. tonight we measured 1.08" vs model PWAT of ~1.45". None the less, we still have plenty of west coast troughing and low pressure disturbances to track over the region, and work on what moisture we do have. These low pressure features will linger through the rest of the week, but the moisture won`t, as it looks to begin flushing Wednesday. For tomorrow, we expect a much more typical "precip" day across the region, with a wide variety of sky conditions, ranging from areas of mostly sunny, to building clouds, to overcast area. In addition, we should see more showers and storm, forming from heating and orographics, vs a widespread shield of stratiform light to moderate rain. Tomorrow we will have some of the necessary ingredients for strong to severe storms, in the forms of wind shear and CAPE. However, the hi-rez, CAM models are in good agreement to hold off on storms until late in the day, even possibly until the evening hours. Tomorrow, with more sunshine, we will see a noticeable bump up in temperatures, with the afternoon highs being very near mid-October normals. For Wednesday, it looks like we will keep a more concentrated, skinny, plume of residual moisture over the eastern parts of the region, with drier conditions likely over western and central areas. Thus we will scrub out all rain/storm mentions for western areas, and keep some for the eastern areas. Thursday looks to be our full flush-out of moisture. A sharp wave will transition across the region, through the large upper trough to our west, this will increase and veer winds more westerly. This should shove out most of our remaining moisture, and move it to our east. This should be our next day with no mention of POPs areawide. Friday will complete this process as a small and sharp upper low passes to our north. Thursday could be breezy, and Friday could be windy, from the west. Finally, ridging aloft moves over for the upcoming weekend for warmer and drier, fair weather conditions across the Borderland. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Lingering low clouds FEW020-050 can be expected for the first few hours after sunrise but cloud bases should elevate through the morning and will start to clear out a bit leaving FEW050-060 by the afternoon hours. Not expecting thunderstorms this afternoon but models have been consistent about bringing thunderstorms up from northern Mexico and spreading northward after 02-03Z for KLRU and KELP. Some storms may become strong with quick, but heavy downpours. Otherwise, fairly light winds today (AOB 10KT) except for KTCS where this location will be the breeziest site with speeds 15G25KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 401 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Low fire danger through the weekend as min RH values remain above critical thresholds coupled with light breezes (20 foot sustained winds of 5-10 mph) each afternoon. Min RH values will be 35-55% across the lowlands and 60-80% in the mountains today and tomorrow. Thunderstorms will push in from northern Mexico after sunset tonight and even the same time tomorrow evening. After that, much drier conditions can be expected. Min RHs will dip to 18-25% in the lowlands and 25-35% in the mountains by this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 66 86 63 82 / 30 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 57 82 57 81 / 0 0 10 10 Las Cruces 60 81 55 76 / 50 0 10 0 Alamogordo 60 82 59 78 / 30 0 10 0 Cloudcroft 45 63 45 57 / 30 10 10 0 Truth or Consequences 60 79 53 76 / 50 0 10 0 Silver City 54 73 46 67 / 20 10 10 0 Deming 60 83 53 77 / 40 0 10 0 Lordsburg 57 79 48 71 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 65 84 62 78 / 30 0 10 0 Dell City 58 85 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 64 89 63 85 / 10 0 10 10 Loma Linda 57 79 57 74 / 20 0 10 0 Fabens 63 87 61 81 / 10 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 62 83 58 76 / 30 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 62 82 60 77 / 40 0 10 0 Jornada Range 60 81 56 76 / 50 0 10 0 Hatch 60 83 55 78 / 50 10 10 0 Columbus 62 83 55 77 / 30 0 10 0 Orogrande 59 81 58 76 / 30 0 10 0 Mayhill 49 72 49 70 / 20 10 10 10 Mescalero 49 74 49 68 / 40 10 10 0 Timberon 48 69 47 66 / 20 10 10 0 Winston 50 73 42 69 / 30 0 10 0 Hillsboro 56 78 49 75 / 40 10 10 0 Spaceport 57 79 53 75 / 50 0 10 0 Lake Roberts 50 74 43 68 / 30 10 10 0 Hurley 55 76 47 70 / 20 10 10 0 Cliff 56 80 48 73 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 50 74 45 68 / 10 0 0 0 Faywood 57 75 48 69 / 30 10 10 0 Animas 56 81 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 57 80 48 73 / 20 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 57 83 49 76 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 53 74 48 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher