302
FXUS64 KEPZ 281801
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1101 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1057 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

  - Breezy to windy conditions combined with dry air will create
    fire weather concerns Saturday through Tuesday.

  - Temperatures rebound again by the weekend and into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

A cutoff low will continue to stay over AZ through much of the
day today before it weakens and gets absorbed downstream from the
Borderland this evening. The area will have one last calm wind
day this afternoon, but that all changes this weekend and into
next week as we`re expecting breezy to windy conditions every day
with the windiest days being Monday and Tuesday. The next upper
low that is inching closer to the area Saturday into Sunday will
bring windy conditions to areas along and west of the Continental
Divide during the afternoon Saturday. This upper low has slowed a
bit compared to model data from last night leaving the windiest
conditions being found west of the Rio Grande. Windy conditions
combined with very dry air will create fire weather concerns. In
addition, dust will certainly be possible Saturday afternoon as
soils are continuing to stay dry. However, a southerly wind is not
an ideal wind direction for dust production, but northern
Chihuahuan dust sources could activate if winds get strong enough
to blow dust from Mexico into the lowlands of New Mexico. Newest
model data tonight has illustrated this upper low just a bit
further north than what we were seeing last night. The track of
the low appears to track over central AZ and into north central NM
and into southern CO/KS. This will allow for pretty good lee
troughing (surface low of 995 mb, give or take a few mb) which
will bring breezy to windy conditions to the area Sunday
afternoon - this time with more of a westerly wind that
afternoon. Dust will continue to be something to watch out for.
The trajectory would favor the lower valley of El Paso and
Hudspeth county. A couple other sources near Deming and the
Lordsburg Playa may become activated and spread dust downstream
from those locations throughout the lowlands.

Monday and Tuesday look very windy as a large and strong upper
trough dives south over the west coast of the CONUS arriving in
time to bring very windy conditions coupled with dust across the
area Monday and Tuesday. Will probably need at least wind
advisories for portions of the area, most likely needed in the
area mountains Monday. A breezy to windy night can be expected
overnight late Monday into Tuesday morning as the trough axis
passes over the Borderland. By Tuesday afternoon, locations east
of the Rio Grande gets to see their fair share of windy
conditions, but the entire area will still be windy, eastern areas
will just see the worst of the winds. Late Wednesday the area
will be under the influence of the western side of the trough
allowing for warming temperatures and quiet conditions. Looks like
we`re in for another wind maker/possible light mountain
precipitation by late next week as another trough is being
suggested by long range models.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. We will have unlimited
ceilings this afternoon and tonight. Some high clouds may slip
into the region near the International Border early tomorrow
morning. Winds, unlike yesterday, will be light today and
tonight. We will see breezy to windy conditions in the afternoon
on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns expected today
due to critical min RHs. This will be the last day for a while
where we will see light breezes during the afternoon as we shift
to dry and windy weather this weekend and early next week.
Critical RHs will be seen mostly along and west of the Rio Grande
today, but single digits will be found in the NM bootheel.
Elevated to near critical fire conditions will be seen across the
area tomorrow due to breezy winds and critical RHs. Min RHs
tomorrow will be anywhere from 7-12% across the lowlands and
12-20% in the area mountains. Expect breezy southerly winds across
the area, but especially west of the Rio Grande. 20 foot winds
will be 15-20 MPH out west and 5-15 MPH elsewhere. West winds will
be seen Sunday afternoon with 20 foot wind speeds of 15-25 MPH
generally across the area but the worst winds will be seen east of
the Rio Grande. A pacific cold front will push in early Sunday
helping to alleviate min RHs somewhat that afternoon but the
entirety of the lowlands will still be within critical thresholds
and area mountains will be 20-25%.

Monday looks like a slam dunk scenario for Red Flag conditions as
we`re expecting min RHs to be 8-12 percent in the lowlands coupled
with very windy conditions. 20 foot winds will be anywhere from
20-30 MPH across the area. RFTI categories are suggesting the
entirety of the area will see critical to extreme fire weather
conditions. Breezy winds expected Monday night into Tuesday
morning increasing wind speeds to 15-30 MPH Tuesday afternoon.
Min RHs do get alleviated somewhat as models are suggesting light
rain in the mountains and some added moisture associated with the
trough. Min RHs will be 12-20% in the lowlands and 20-30% in the
area mountains that afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72  43  79  48 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            70  39  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               68  37  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               68  35  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               50  29  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    67  38  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              63  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   71  35  78  38 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                70  34  78  33 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       71  46  77  49 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                70  34  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             77  39  82  42 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               66  42  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   74  39  81  44 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             69  39  77  44 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           69  44  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            68  34  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    71  34  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 71  38  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                67  38  75  43 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                  63  33  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                60  31  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 59  30  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  60  27  67  28 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro                66  37  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                68  32  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             64  34  69  32 /   0   0  10   0
Hurley                   66  33  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    71  28  78  27 /   0   0  10  10
Mule Creek               66  33  73  31 /   0   0  10  10
Faywood                  65  38  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   74  34  80  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  71  33  78  36 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           75  37  79  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               70  42  72  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
     BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice