Area Forecast Discussion
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719
FXUS64 KEPZ 141129
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
529 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

 - Abundant moisture from tropical remnants remain over the region.
   A slow moving west coast trough will keep will bring the
   atmosphere unsettled. This means a continuation of isolated to
   scattered showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday and Wednesday.
   result in localized flooding.

 - Drier air begins to move in from the west Thursday, with a dry
   weekend ahead. Temperatures will warm back to near normal
   temperatures for mid-October.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Tomorrow will start a transition, but it won`t come quickly, as we
begin to see the end of deep tropical moisture infiltration. Water
Vapor imagery is already showing a sharp drying signature working in
from the south and the west, especially aloft, but we will continue
to have plenty of mid and lower level moisture streaming across the
area. Dewpoints will remain in the 50s, with well above normal
PWATs. However, we have been under performing on the sounding
PWAT vs. the model PWAT. i.e. tonight we measured 1.08" vs model
PWAT of ~1.45". None the less, we still have plenty of west coast
troughing and low pressure disturbances to track over the region,
and work on what moisture we do have. These low pressure features
will linger through the rest of the week, but the moisture won`t,
as it looks to begin flushing Wednesday. For tomorrow, we expect a
much more typical "precip" day across the region, with a wide
variety of sky conditions, ranging from areas of mostly sunny, to
building clouds, to overcast area. In addition, we should see more
showers and storm, forming from heating and orographics, vs a
widespread shield of stratiform light to moderate rain. Tomorrow
we will have some of the necessary ingredients for strong to
severe storms, in the forms of wind shear and CAPE. However, the
hi-rez, CAM models are in good agreement to hold off on storms
until late in the day, even possibly until the evening hours.

Tomorrow, with more sunshine, we will see a noticeable bump up in
temperatures, with the afternoon highs being very near mid-October
normals.

For Wednesday, it looks like we will keep a more concentrated,
skinny, plume of residual moisture over the eastern parts of the
region, with drier conditions likely over western and central areas.
Thus we will scrub out all rain/storm mentions for western areas,
and keep some for the eastern areas.

Thursday looks to be our full flush-out of moisture.  A sharp wave
will transition across the region, through the large upper trough to
our west, this will increase and veer winds more westerly. This
should shove out most of our remaining moisture, and move it to our
east. This should be our next day with no mention of POPs areawide.
Friday will complete this process as a small and sharp upper low
passes to our north. Thursday could be breezy, and Friday could be
windy, from the west.

Finally, ridging aloft moves over for the upcoming weekend for
warmer and drier, fair weather conditions across the Borderland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Lingering low clouds FEW020-050 can be expected for the first few
hours after sunrise but cloud bases should elevate through the
morning and will start to clear out a bit leaving FEW050-060 by the
afternoon hours. Not expecting thunderstorms this afternoon but
models have been consistent about bringing thunderstorms up from
northern Mexico and spreading northward after 02-03Z for KLRU and
KELP. Some storms may become strong with quick, but heavy downpours.
Otherwise, fairly light winds today (AOB 10KT) except for KTCS where
this location will be the breeziest site with speeds 15G25KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 401 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Low fire danger through the weekend as min RH values remain above
critical thresholds coupled with light breezes (20 foot sustained
winds of 5-10 mph) each afternoon. Min RH values will be 35-55%
across the lowlands and 60-80% in the mountains today and tomorrow.
Thunderstorms will push in from northern Mexico after sunset tonight
and even the same time tomorrow evening. After that, much drier
conditions can be expected. Min RHs will dip to 18-25% in the
lowlands and 25-35% in the mountains by this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  66  86  63  82 /  30   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            57  82  57  81 /   0   0  10  10
Las Cruces               60  81  55  76 /  50   0  10   0
Alamogordo               60  82  59  78 /  30   0  10   0
Cloudcroft               45  63  45  57 /  30  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences    60  79  53  76 /  50   0  10   0
Silver City              54  73  46  67 /  20  10  10   0
Deming                   60  83  53  77 /  40   0  10   0
Lordsburg                57  79  48  71 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       65  84  62  78 /  30   0  10   0
Dell City                58  85  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             64  89  63  85 /  10   0  10  10
Loma Linda               57  79  57  74 /  20   0  10   0
Fabens                   63  87  61  81 /  10   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             62  83  58  76 /  30   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           62  82  60  77 /  40   0  10   0
Jornada Range            60  81  56  76 /  50   0  10   0
Hatch                    60  83  55  78 /  50  10  10   0
Columbus                 62  83  55  77 /  30   0  10   0
Orogrande                59  81  58  76 /  30   0  10   0
Mayhill                  49  72  49  70 /  20  10  10  10
Mescalero                49  74  49  68 /  40  10  10   0
Timberon                 48  69  47  66 /  20  10  10   0
Winston                  50  73  42  69 /  30   0  10   0
Hillsboro                56  78  49  75 /  40  10  10   0
Spaceport                57  79  53  75 /  50   0  10   0
Lake Roberts             50  74  43  68 /  30  10  10   0
Hurley                   55  76  47  70 /  20  10  10   0
Cliff                    56  80  48  73 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek               50  74  45  68 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                  57  75  48  69 /  30  10  10   0
Animas                   56  81  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  57  80  48  73 /  20   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           57  83  49  76 /  10   0   0   0
Cloverdale               53  74  48  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher