731
FXUS64 KEPZ 061138 AAA
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
538 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Near record warmth expected today with slightly amplified east winds
for most areas. Slightly cool temperatures on Monday before
temperatures rebound back to well above average readings by midweek.
Dry conditions to prevail until a weak disturbance brings a chance
for sprinkles over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Upper level high pressure continues its reign over the Desert
Southwest while a potent upper low sets its sights on the Great
Lakes. The disturbance has kicked off a blustery backdoor cold
front down the Great Plains in its travels, the associated surface
high of which is currently meandering west of the Dakotas. The
front will continue surging down the plains this morning, entering
into the southeastern plains of NM before lunch and then into far
west TX later this afternoon. Models are projecting this front to
entire the CWA closer to 00Z but given the common bias of models
being slow with these types of fronts, did scoot its arrival a few
hours earlier. A shift to easterly winds will take hold with a
the potential for a few amplified wind gusts but beyond that, the
fropa remains relatively benign. Cooling will be lackluster but
will at least get the Borderland well into the 80s and lower,
which will be about 5F to 7F less than Sunday`s near-record
readings. The relief will be short-lived, however, as high
pressure attempts to center over NM by midweek.

Models continue to hint at a baggy low pressure system moving in
off the SoCal coast on Wednesday night. This would allow for some
weakness under the ridge, bringing moisture up along the spines of
the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts. Deterministic models seem a
bit optimistic at bringing precipitation into play Saturday but
evaluation of the ensemble/cluster guidance suggests this rosy
picture may be a bit fictitious. The more likely scenario is
sprinkles favoring western areas Sunday, with isolated light rain
coming more into the picture beyond the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period. A weak
backdoor front will allow for an ely wind shift this aftn and
evening. Gusts up to 20 kts can be expected this aftn,
diminishing aft 07/01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected during the
forecast period, though elevated to near-critical conditions will
exist today due to increasing dryness and elevated winds. Relative
humidity will dip into the low double and single digits this
afternoon, while a weak backdoor front brings increased easterly
winds. Winds are not anticipated to hit critical thresholds,
however, the combination of elevated winds and very low humidity
will create relatively widespread near-critical fire weather
conditions, particularly for areas west of the central mountains.
While the front will offer some degrees of cooling on Monday,
temperatures will quickly rebound through midweek, reaching 5-10
degrees above average once again. Dry conditions are likely to
prevail through the entire forecast area until the weekend.
Ventilation will trend good to excellent today, poor to good
Monday, and then fair to good for most zones through the remainder
of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  93  63  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            88  56  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               92  57  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               90  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               68  42  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    89  56  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              85  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   92  56  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                92  61  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       91  64  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                91  54  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             93  58  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               86  57  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   93  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             91  58  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           90  60  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            91  56  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    93  56  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 92  58  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                90  56  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  77  45  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                78  46  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 77  45  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  82  47  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                87  54  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                90  54  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             84  50  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   87  53  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    92  51  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               88  55  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  87  55  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   92  56  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  91  56  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           91  55  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               88  58  83  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...40-Breitreiter