Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
801
FXUS64 KEPZ 041155
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
555 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 539 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025
- High pressure centered over the region will set up hot and dry
conditions through at least the end of the week.
- Temperatures will be near record values with a Heat Advisory
in effect for the El Paso Metro area and lower Rio Grande
Valley through Tuesday.
- Rain chances will remain near zero for the most of the area
through the week. Rain chances and thunderstorm development
will improve slightly for the mountain areas in the latter part
of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 939 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025
Hot and dry conditions will persist over the region as strong
high pressure aloft remains the dominant weather feature for the
next several days. The pattern will be persistent with long range
models projecting the area of high pressure remaining centered
centered over Southern New Mexico through next Sunday. This
pattern will maintain hot and mostly dry weather conditions,
keeping deep Monsoonal moisture away from the region till at least
the latter of the week.
Hot temperatures are the main impact from this weather pattern.
Today`s high temperature at the El Paso International Airport was
105 degrees which tied a record last set 1980. Temperatures will
continue to be hot and well above normal this week. National
Model Blend temperature values are running below actual values, so
have adjusted temperatures a couple of degrees upward to match
observed trends. Afternoon temperature values will be near record
levels for Monday and the rest of the week. A heat advisory is in
effect for the El Paso metro area and the lower Rio Grande Valley
for Monday and Tuesday and has a high chance of being extended
the rest of the week.
Precipitation chances for Monday through Wednesday are near zero
as a dry air mass with precipitable water values near a half an
inch remains in place the next few days. Short range convective
models hint at isolated storms over the Sacramento mountains for
Monday afternoon but those are in the 90th percentile and not
likely to occur. Eventually, toward the latter part of the week, a
modest amount of moisture does get entrained into the circulation
around the persistent high aloft. This should raise precipitable
water values to about three quarters of an inch that while is not
sufficient for precip in the lowlands, it may be enough to allow
isolated thunderstorms to develop over the mountain zones Thursday
through Saturday. Mileage will vary on coverage and rain amounts
with generally spotty accumulations in the mountains expected.
Long range outlook: The high will be stubbornly persistent over
the local area into next weekend, but it will be gradually
weakening, with moisture slowly returning to the area late for
thunderstorms next weekend into the first part of the following
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the period. Mainly SKC expected
with FEW250 early this AM as high pressure holds overhead. Other
than occasional gusts this afternoon to the mid-teens, winds will
be AOB 10kts mainly from W.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 539 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025
Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. Hot
and dry conditions are expected this week with near-zero storm
chances through Tuesday. Slight storm chances return for the
second half of the week, favoring area mountains and western areas
as moisture begins to rebound. Later in the week, dry lightning
will become more of a threat due to low humidity in the lower
levels. Winds will be light at 5-10 mph from the south and west
through midweek. Low relative humidities and modestly breezy
winds may create pockets of elevated fire danger each afternoon as
fuels start to dry. Overnight recoveries are forecast to be fair.
Temperatures will be near 10 degrees above normal through the
week with very deep mixing heights forecast.
Min RHs will be 5-15% through Friday, excluding the Sacs which are
15-25%; lowest RHs are expected today. Vent rates range from good
to very good.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 106 76 106 77 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 100 68 99 68 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 101 68 101 70 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 101 70 102 72 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 80 54 79 55 / 10 0 10 0
Truth or Consequences 100 68 100 70 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 95 64 95 66 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 104 66 104 69 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 101 68 102 70 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 103 75 103 76 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 104 71 103 71 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 105 74 105 76 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 97 70 97 70 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 104 72 105 74 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 102 71 102 73 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 103 74 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 101 68 100 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 103 67 103 70 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 104 70 103 72 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 100 69 100 70 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 90 58 91 60 / 10 0 10 0
Mescalero 91 59 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 88 58 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 94 58 93 60 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 100 66 100 67 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 100 66 100 68 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 96 58 95 60 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 98 64 98 66 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 102 65 102 67 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 98 63 98 65 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 97 66 97 67 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 101 68 102 69 / 0 0 0 10
Hachita 100 66 101 67 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 100 67 101 69 / 0 0 0 10
Cloverdale 96 68 97 69 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson