Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
656 FXUS64 KEPZ 201137 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 537 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - Moisture levels will lower beginning on Wednesday, continuing into the weekend, leading to a decrease in storm coverage. - From Thursday through Sunday, storm chances will be focused in the Gila Region with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. - Moisture and storm chances rebound late in the period. - Temperatures remaining near normal through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Near-term PoPs (3-6z) have been adjusted to reflect isolated storms moving SW out of the Tularosa Basin towards El Paso. Moisture levels remain above normal for Wednesday as high pressure aloft sits over the Four Corners, but will come down slightly from the observed 1.40" PWAT in the latest 0z EPZ sounding. We still have a favorable profile for heavy rainfall with skinny CAPE, above average moisture, and slow storm motions. Storm chances will decrease for Wed afternoon as drier air moves into the upper levels with less instability than previous days. Generally isolated activity is expected for the afternoon and evening with storm motion from the east and a bit faster than we`ve seen lately. Gusty winds to 40 mph and heavy downpours are possible. Flash flooding is less of a concern compared to the past few days due to somewhat faster storm motion and lower moisture levels. Storm chances will be favored along and east of the RGV on Wednesday. Storm chances and moisture levels continue to decrease for the rest of the week with PWs falling to below normal on Thursday as drier, stable air moves in from the northeast around the upper high. The mountains (mainly the Gila) will still see isolated activity each day while the lowlands stay dry through the weekend. That tongue of dry air looks to get displaced/weakened by the high early next week, allowing moisture levels to rebound to near or above normal next Tue/Wed. Temps stay within a few degrees of normal with a slight warm-up late this week due to drier air and lower storm chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025 VMC through the forecast period. Conditions beginning FEW-SCT150 this morning with surface winds 020-050 at 05-10 knots. CU development after 18Z, with isolated TSRA across S NM by 21Z this afternoon. Skies generally SCT-BKN080 with afternoon VCTS (21-01Z most likely timeframe) at KELP/KLRU. Any direct TS over terminals will be temporary and minimal impact. Storms diminishing after 02Z, becoming SKC-FEW150 overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 530 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Low fire danger this week with min RH 20-30% and 20-ft winds out of the east at 5 to 10 mph. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, clearing after sunset. Storms are not expected to be severe, but could produce gusty winds. Drier and warmer weather the rest of the week, with isolated (20-30% coverage) storms across GNF and Catron County. LNF will be almost completely dry. Uptick in storm chances again next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 94 74 96 74 / 40 20 0 0 Sierra Blanca 88 64 88 64 / 50 20 20 0 Las Cruces 90 67 91 68 / 30 20 0 0 Alamogordo 89 66 92 68 / 40 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 67 48 70 49 / 60 10 20 0 Truth or Consequences 90 68 91 69 / 20 10 0 0 Silver City 86 63 87 63 / 50 20 30 10 Deming 94 68 95 68 / 20 10 0 0 Lordsburg 93 69 94 69 / 20 20 10 10 West El Paso Metro 92 72 93 73 / 40 20 0 0 Dell City 91 67 92 67 / 30 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 93 70 93 71 / 40 20 20 0 Loma Linda 85 65 86 66 / 40 10 10 0 Fabens 93 70 92 70 / 30 20 0 0 Santa Teresa 91 69 92 71 / 30 20 0 0 White Sands HQ 91 71 93 72 / 50 10 10 0 Jornada Range 90 67 91 68 / 40 10 10 0 Hatch 93 68 94 69 / 30 10 10 0 Columbus 93 69 93 71 / 20 20 0 0 Orogrande 88 67 90 66 / 40 10 10 0 Mayhill 77 53 80 54 / 50 10 20 0 Mescalero 79 52 81 54 / 50 10 20 0 Timberon 76 52 78 53 / 50 10 10 0 Winston 85 57 86 58 / 40 10 20 10 Hillsboro 90 64 91 65 / 30 20 10 10 Spaceport 90 66 91 68 / 30 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 86 57 87 58 / 60 20 40 20 Hurley 88 64 89 64 / 40 20 20 10 Cliff 93 65 93 66 / 50 20 30 10 Mule Creek 90 63 90 63 / 50 20 40 20 Faywood 88 64 88 66 / 40 20 20 10 Animas 94 67 95 68 / 20 20 10 0 Hachita 92 67 92 66 / 20 20 0 0 Antelope Wells 91 66 92 66 / 20 20 0 0 Cloverdale 88 65 88 65 / 30 20 10 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt