Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
847
FXUS64 KEPZ 112342
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
542 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
- Rain chances and moisture will increase across the region from
west to east on today. Best chances for rain will be west of
the Rio Grande Valley today.
- Remnant tropical moisture will continue to flow over the area
Sunday and Monday, bringing rain and storm chances. Heavy rain
will be a threat in southern and western areas of New Mexico
with flooding possible.
- Temperatures will be near or above normal Saturday,then cooling
below average Sunday through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
WV imagery showing moist southwest flow continuing over the CWA
this morning as upper high over the Big Bend area works with
Pacific trough just onshore of the Pac NW. Short wave rotating out
of trough over central Arizona is taking most of the remnants of
Priscilla north and west of our area. Slight lull in WV moisture
this morning, but moisture from remains of Raymond rapidly move up
this afternoon. Models showing PWs up to 1.1 inch north, to 1.4
inches south by tonight. Some light showers have developed over
the Gila/Black Range this morning, but expect stronger development
of showers/thunderstorms to begin next few hours. CAMS models
show storm development east to the Rio Grande Valley by late this
afternoon and over the eastern CWA tonight. Rain could become
heavy, especially with any thunderstorm. Storm motion today looks
to be around 20 mph or higher, which would help mitigate some of
the flood potential. Having said that, a Flood Watch continues
through Sunday afternoon for the western CWA.
Sunday and Monday...the wet story continues as PWs remain at
around 200% of normal as the last of Raymond`s moisture moves up.
Flood potential will continue, although lower, as rain rates
likely to be lower as rain becomes more tropical and stratiform.
Storm motion also looks to increase further.
Tuesday and Wednesday...begin a slow transition to drier more
typical Fall weather. Moisture not completely flushed out on
Tuesday so chance of showers will continue mainly east of the RG
Valley. Wednesday will see even smaller area for chance of
showers, limited mainly to Otero County.
Thursday through Saturday...Pacific trough finally passes through
the area, resulting in flushing the last of the moisture east of
the area. Some afternoon breezes likely each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Abundant moisture from a pair of Pacific tropical systems has
moved into the region. This moisture is helping fuel widespread
showers with embedded thunderstorms and lots of clouds. Ceilings
continue to be in the BKN070-150 range, but we will likely see
lower ceilings as we go into the night and through the day on
Sunday; BKN050-070. We could see some brief MVFR/IFR ceilings in
some of the heavier showers tonight, but the exact location and
timing of anything like that is still in doubt. We will likely see
off and on showers most of the night. The threat for
thunderstorms will diminish as we move into the overnight hours.
Rain showers will continue on Sunday with ceilings ranging from
BKN050-100, with occasional lower ceilings/visibilities in the
heavier showers. Looks like a wet and active next 24 hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Fire weather concerns remain at a minimal level with tropical
moisture in place. Rain, locally heavy, should continue into
Monday with some areas of flooding possible. Some showers could
persist on Tuesday but mainly just east of the Rio Grande Valley.
Drier air moves in Wednesday and beyond with seasonable
temperatures.
Min RH: Lowlands 60-75% Sunday and Monday, decreasing to 30-45%
Tuesday through Thursday. Mountains 70-90% Sunday and Monday,
decreasing to 45-70% through Wednesday, and 25-40% Thursday. Vent
rates poor-fair Sunday through Tuesday, becoming fair-good
Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 76 64 79 64 / 20 80 80 80
Sierra Blanca 74 59 78 58 / 10 60 80 80
Las Cruces 72 59 73 58 / 40 70 80 70
Alamogordo 75 58 75 59 / 10 70 60 60
Cloudcroft 55 43 55 44 / 10 60 50 60
Truth or Consequences 76 58 72 57 / 40 40 50 40
Silver City 69 54 65 53 / 80 70 60 60
Deming 74 60 75 58 / 60 70 70 70
Lordsburg 72 59 70 57 / 80 70 60 60
West El Paso Metro 72 63 75 64 / 20 80 80 80
Dell City 77 60 78 59 / 10 60 70 70
Fort Hancock 78 65 83 64 / 10 70 90 80
Loma Linda 66 57 71 58 / 10 80 80 80
Fabens 73 63 79 64 / 10 80 90 80
Santa Teresa 71 61 74 61 / 30 80 90 70
White Sands HQ 73 62 74 61 / 20 80 80 70
Jornada Range 73 59 72 59 / 30 70 70 60
Hatch 77 60 75 59 / 50 50 70 60
Columbus 73 61 75 60 / 60 80 80 70
Orogrande 71 58 72 59 / 20 80 70 70
Mayhill 68 49 65 50 / 10 50 60 50
Mescalero 68 47 67 49 / 10 50 50 50
Timberon 62 47 63 48 / 10 70 70 60
Winston 71 49 67 49 / 60 40 40 40
Hillsboro 76 55 71 54 / 60 50 50 50
Spaceport 75 57 72 56 / 40 50 60 50
Lake Roberts 71 50 66 50 / 80 60 50 60
Hurley 71 55 67 54 / 80 70 60 60
Cliff 75 58 72 56 / 80 70 50 60
Mule Creek 73 54 67 53 / 80 70 50 60
Faywood 70 56 66 56 / 70 60 60 60
Animas 71 60 71 57 / 80 80 80 70
Hachita 70 58 70 56 / 70 90 90 80
Antelope Wells 70 59 72 56 / 60 90 80 80
Cloverdale 64 57 66 55 / 70 90 90 80
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southern
Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
Valley-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice