543
FXUS64 KEPZ 072331
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
431 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 425 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

 - Warm and dry conditions continue through the weekend

 - High temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average, near or
   exceeding daily records

 - Elevated fire weather concerns across the Borderland through
   the weekend, mitigated by relatively light winds

 - Somewhat cooler temperatures, but stronger winds are possible
   early next week, which may further increase fire weather
   conditions

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

Upper ridge centered to the south of the area will allow
abnormally warm conditions to persist over the weekend. High
temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average throughout the
weekend with light breeziness and dry conditions. This ridge
gradually shifts away from the area thanks to an incoming
shortwave trough. This will allow for a backdoor front to slide
into locations east of the Rio Grande Monday morning and sloshes
eastward through the day but the real cooling effect will be
thick clouds overhead. This will be the start of a cooling trend
through the work week. By Wednesday, temperatures will be near
normal perhaps a tad below normal. A couple more shortwaves will
be seen Tuesday and Wednesday allowing for breezy afternoon
conditions both days leading to possible critical fire weather
conditions, especially Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Occasional
gusts to 20kts persist for the first hour or two of the period,
then subsiding for tonight to AOB 8kts. Mainly W-SW winds
expected, becoming gusty again late in the period for most
terminals. Other than FEW-SCT250 passing by, SKC continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

Elevated fire danger continues over the weekend as abnormally warm
and dry conditions persist. Single digit RHs will be seen over the
weekend across the lowlands and 10-12% RHs in the area mountains.
20 foot winds will stay below critical thresholds out of the west
at 5-12MPH tomorrow and Sunday. Winds will be much breezier Monday
through Wednesday afternoon with 20 foot wind speeds of 10-20MPH.
Min RH values increase to 12 to 20 percent in the lowlands and 20
to 30 percent in the area mountains Monday through Thursday. Red
Flag Warnings may be needed in some locations west of the Rio
Grande Monday, with more widespread criteria being met in the same
general area on Tuesday. Elevated fire conditions possible
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

Ventilation rates will be fair to very good over the weekend
becoming very good to excellent Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  46  82  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            46  82  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               41  80  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               43  80  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               40  59  41  58 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    39  80  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              40  72  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   36  81  38  79 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                33  77  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       48  81  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                38  84  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             44  87  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               47  75  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   44  84  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             41  80  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           51  81  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            40  80  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    38  83  39  81 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 43  82  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                42  79  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  46  73  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                40  69  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 38  68  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  31  74  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                41  80  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                35  80  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             37  72  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   35  76  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    26  79  30  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               36  72  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  41  76  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   36  82  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  36  82  38  79 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           41  84  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               46  76  46  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson