Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
294
FXUS64 KEPZ 191138
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
438 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 433 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025
- Colder behind last night`s cold front, and continued dry
today. Slight warming Monday, with fair weather continuing.
- A second cold front pushes in with strong east winds, Monday
night. Dangerously cold windchills for most of the region
through the night into Tuesday morning. Slight chances for
light snow over the area mountains Monday night.
- Dry and cool for the week ahead, with slow warming back to
normal and above for the weekend. The week looks to stay dry.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025
Cold front number one of two pushed into and across the CWFA
overnight Saturday night, with cooler air now in place across the
region. This surface feature, and associated upper trough are both
lacking moisture this far south and west. With the cold air
pooling up against the SACs and GUADS, there are some low clouds
to our east, but models suggest then hanging there, with few to no
clouds developing west over our area. Thus a dry, but noticeably
cooler day, with plenty of sunshine, and lighter winds today.
Afternoon temperatures will be around 8-12 degrees cooler than
yesterday, and about that same range cooler than average for the
date.
Monday is our day between cold fronts, and we will see west zonal
flow aloft which will help to modify of our cooler airmass, with
temperatures bumping up 5-7 degrees, and topping out about 5
degrees below normal. Conditions will continue dry.
By late afternoon our norther zones will start to see winds
shifting toward the north as our second cold front starts to drop
in from the N and NE. We will see increasing winds speeds through
the evening as the front pushes hard to the S and W. Winds of
30-40 mph look reasonable, with some higher gust speeds. That
wind, combined with colder arctic air filtering in will drop both
temperatures and wind chills to dangerous levels of -10F to -15F
over areas mountains, and -5F to +5F across the lowlands. Thus we
have issued an Extreme Cold Watch for our northern and eastern
zones. With this front/trough passage, most of the region will
remain dry, but the SACS and some or our N and NW high country
could see some brief, isolated, light snow. Accumulations of less
than an inch are expected. Tuesday`s high temperatures will
struggle to reach 40F degrees across the lowlands, with the max
temps 15-20F degrees colder than normal.
Wednesday morning will be equally cold, or slightly colder, than
Tuesday morning. Lows may again necessitate another Cold Weather
Advisory, but we will be lacking the strong winds of Tue morning,
so Windchill temps will not be as dangerously cold, but still a
morning to keep cold weather safety in mind.
For the rest of the week, after our lowest dip in temps on
Tuesday, we will see day to day warming and fair and dry weather.
By the weekend our highs will be back to normal and above.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 433 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. SKC conditions
will continue but a band of high clouds will slide across the
region through the morning with skies temp SCT-BKN250...but then
clearing through the afternoon. Lighter winds from the NE through
the morning, shifting SE to S at all terminals tomorrow aft 18z.
Winds generally in the 5-10kt range with some gusts near 18kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025
After two days of somewhat elevated fire weather conditions due to
mild to seasonal and dry weather and breezy to windy conditions,
we will see a moderation on fire weather with cooler weather, and
lighter winds behind a cold front passage overnight. Today should
be at least 10F degrees cooler, with much lighter winds. RH will
also be elevated from previous days, despite continued dry
weather, mostly due to the cooler temperatures.
Monday will be warmer, by 7-10 degrees, and RH will be lower by
about 10 percent, but we will keep the lighter winds to keep fire
weather concerns down.
Monday night another strong cold front will push in from north to
south and northeast to southwest, with winds shifting from W to N
through the later afternoon and early evening hours. We are
expecting a strong push with winds in the 25 to 35 mph range with
stronger gusts. Much cooler air will rush in overnight for a much
cooler Tuesday. RH will be up slightly again due to the cooler
air, but it will still be quite dry. Winds and windchill
temperatures will be the weather elements to watch as it stays
breezy and gusty well into Tuesday, and we see negative wind
chills. Only the Sacramento mountains, and to a lesser extent,
some of the other northern and western high mountains look to see
any precip (snow) with this front/trough passage Monday night.
Otherwise continued dry.
After the coldest day on Tuesday, the rest of the week will see
gradual day to day warming and dry and fair weather conditions.
For next weekend, we expect temperatures to be at or above the
seasonal normals. Winds will also be trending stronger as the next
Pacific storm system (likely just a dry trough passage) takes
shapes and approaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 49 30 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 44 22 54 15 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 46 25 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 44 21 50 14 / 0 0 0 10
Cloudcroft 27 17 32 1 / 0 0 0 40
Truth or Consequences 46 23 48 17 / 0 0 0 10
Silver City 45 24 49 16 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 49 21 57 19 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 51 19 55 17 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 48 30 55 25 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 43 19 49 16 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 51 22 60 17 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 41 25 49 16 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 51 25 58 21 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 46 25 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 46 29 52 22 / 0 0 0 10
Jornada Range 45 21 52 16 / 0 0 0 10
Hatch 48 21 55 18 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 48 25 58 23 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 43 22 50 17 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 42 20 42 4 / 0 0 0 10
Mescalero 36 17 41 2 / 0 0 0 40
Timberon 35 15 40 3 / 0 0 0 10
Winston 43 14 45 3 / 0 0 0 10
Hillsboro 49 24 51 14 / 0 0 0 10
Spaceport 44 20 51 13 / 0 0 0 10
Lake Roberts 46 22 48 13 / 0 0 0 10
Hurley 47 20 52 12 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 53 10 57 6 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 48 23 50 15 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 43 25 51 17 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 56 22 59 18 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 51 20 57 17 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 56 26 60 18 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 53 30 55 20 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands.
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for Northern
Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern
Hudspeth Highlands.
NM...Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central
Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains
Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Otero Mesa-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-
Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Upper
Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for East
Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento
Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains
Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Slopes
Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...14-Bird