Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
990 FXUS64 KEPZ 101210 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 610 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 541 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Thunderstorms with better rain chances arrive Sunday and Monday as upper level disturbances take advantage of recycled moisture over the area. - Temperatures will begin decreasing a little, but most lowland areas will hold onto highs in the middle to upper 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sat Aug 9 2025 Continued showery activity looks to persist for a few more hours tonight. HRRR continues to illustrate fairly cloudy skies throughout the morning from overnight storms which will help do a couple things for the area - help cool off temperatures but this will also block sunlight from heating the surface. Surface heating and terrain influences are how this area in particular can develop monsoonal thunderstorms. With this forcing mechanism mostly gone (if the cloud cover does indeed stick around), CAMs have been hinting at a much more active day tomorrow afternoon. The persistent upper high that brought us hot conditions lately will continue to fizzle away tonight and is basically gone by Sunday afternoon. This is due to an upper trough that has been hanging around the US/Canadian border. A trough axis looks to be the primary forcing mechanism for storms tomorrow. Storm chances look pretty good tomorrow afternoon for the entirety of the CWA. PW values are hovering at near normal values (0.9"-1.0") with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. DCAPEs are still expected to be well over 1000J/kg leading to more gusty outflow winds generally up to 50 mph near storms. The continued influence of the trough axis looks to keep overnight activity pushing from the north to south and finally looks to exit the area by the late evening/early morning hours. Just a slight uptick in moisture with PWs around 1"-1.1". High pressure looks to redevelop over central California with lingering trough energy nearby the area. This will place the area under northerly flow which has been notorious for overperforming due to the added shear it brings. In addition, we do have a bit of diffluence overhead which will help bring additional lift. Drier air does look to push in from the north Monday afternoon for northern portions of the area which will add to the wind gust threat with storms in that area, but with moisture lacking - this could prevent storms from forming. CAMs show a downtick in activity Monday but with the added other ingredients, the storms that do form could over perform. Localized flash flooding possible with gusty outflow winds generally up to 50 mph near storms. Heading into Tuesday, high pressure keeps us under northerly flow with PWs around average to slightly above average. Continued monsoonal thunderstorms can be expected perhaps with a slight increased risk for flooding with storms. Flow becomes weak Wednesday as a trough looks to push onshore over central California which will fizzle away any high pressure that was lingering near the area. Both the EC and GFS are in relatively good agreement with this trough arriving around late in the work week. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida tries to reestablish itself which would put the monsoonal plume of moisture somewhere over the desert SW. Models right now suggest the plume is over us but will need to wait for newer data to see where the high and low pressure systems set up as this will determine where the plume will be. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Mid-high clouds remain over the area this morning but are expected to thin out by the afternoon. Scattered storms develop during the afternoon near all terminals as an upper-level system moves into the region. Model guidance shows medium confidence in TS near or over the TAF sites later today, warranting VCTS/PROB30s for all terminals. Storms are capable of producing gusts to 40kts and MVFR CIGs/VIS due to BLDU/heavy rain. TS are most likely to occur in the early evening, moving generally from N to S. TS transition into SHRA around sunset with mid clouds lingering overnight. Prevailing winds will be W-SW outside of outflows, gusting during the day to near 20kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 541 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. Unsettled weather is expected through Tuesday as an upper-level system moves into the region. This will keep storm chances relatively high across the area (scattered to numerous for mtns, isolated to scattered for lowlands) with potential for strong wind gusts and small hail. Heavy rain is not as much of a concern since moisture levels stay near or slightly below normal. Dry lightning is less of a threat too as rain more easily reaches the surface. Storm chances lower for Wed/Thu. Outside of gusty outflows, winds will be generally light and shifting as RHs stay near or above critical levels. Overnight recoveries will be good to very good through midweek. Temperatures cool to around normal this week. Min RHs will be 15-30% through Thursday, except FWZ113 which is 25-50%. Vent rates range from fair to very good through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 100 74 97 73 / 30 30 30 30 Sierra Blanca 97 67 92 65 / 30 30 30 30 Las Cruces 97 67 94 67 / 30 40 30 40 Alamogordo 98 67 94 66 / 30 30 30 30 Cloudcroft 75 50 72 49 / 50 30 60 30 Truth or Consequences 97 67 95 67 / 40 30 20 20 Silver City 92 61 90 61 / 50 40 50 40 Deming 101 67 98 67 / 30 30 30 40 Lordsburg 97 66 96 66 / 40 30 40 40 West El Paso Metro 99 72 94 72 / 30 30 30 40 Dell City 100 69 96 67 / 20 30 30 20 Fort Hancock 101 73 97 72 / 30 30 30 30 Loma Linda 92 66 89 65 / 30 30 30 30 Fabens 100 71 95 70 / 20 30 30 30 Santa Teresa 98 70 94 70 / 30 40 30 40 White Sands HQ 99 70 96 70 / 30 40 30 40 Jornada Range 97 66 94 66 / 30 40 30 40 Hatch 100 67 98 66 / 40 40 30 30 Columbus 100 69 97 69 / 30 40 30 40 Orogrande 96 67 92 67 / 30 40 30 30 Mayhill 86 55 81 53 / 40 20 60 30 Mescalero 86 54 83 53 / 50 30 60 30 Timberon 82 54 79 52 / 30 30 50 30 Winston 89 55 89 54 / 50 40 40 20 Hillsboro 96 62 94 60 / 40 40 30 40 Spaceport 97 64 95 64 / 40 30 30 30 Lake Roberts 91 56 91 55 / 50 50 60 40 Hurley 93 61 92 62 / 50 40 40 30 Cliff 97 63 97 63 / 50 40 50 20 Mule Creek 93 61 93 61 / 50 40 40 20 Faywood 93 62 92 62 / 50 40 40 40 Animas 97 66 96 66 / 40 30 40 50 Hachita 97 65 95 65 / 40 40 30 40 Antelope Wells 96 64 93 65 / 40 50 40 50 Cloverdale 90 62 89 64 / 60 40 50 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson