Preliminary Forecasts
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
280 FXUS02 KWNH 080701 PREEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 Valid 12Z Sat Jan 11 2025 - 12Z Wed Jan 15 2025 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... It remains the case that model and ensemble forecast spread continues to decrease, with higher agreement and run-to-run consistency. There is a bit more model spread concerning weaker features early-mid next week, but the affect on sensible weather should be minimal since no strong storm systems are anticipated. Accordingly. the WPC medium range product suite was mainly derived from a blend of reasonably well clustered guidance of the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET along with the National Blend of Models. Later in the period, added GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means input to additionally smooth out differences in the deterministic models. This plan maintains good WPC continuity and is in line with a composite of latest 00 UTC cycle guidance. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A developing low pressure system moving up from the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days will interact with an arctic air mass across the central and eastern U.S. to bring heavy snow, sleet, and rain/freezing rain. Lingering wintry weather Saturday may bring some hazardous conditions out from the South to the Mid-Atlantic and coastal New England as the low lifts offshore Sunday to rapidly deepen over the Western Atlantic as a maritime threat. Trailing fronts will continue to focus periodic rain/convection back across Florida and the Gulf to southern Texas into early-mid next week. Wintry weather is also expected out from the Northwest by Saturday as a frontal system tracks increasingly inland. This system will push across the Rockies and Plains/Midwest/Great Lakes this weekend into early next week and weaken while high pressure ridging builds over the West. By Sunday, another blast of Arctic air is forecast to spill into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as a cold front drops south over the central U.S., creating hazardous cold temperatures. This weather pattern will favor the continuation of well below normal temperatures for much of the nation. The exiting winter storm over the South will bring temperature anomalies of 10-20 degrees below normal. Temperatures will moderate slightly this weekend, but remain below normal, then another arctic blast is set to move into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest early next week. This surge of Arctic air will drop temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal, with single digit/teen highs and lows below zero. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$