Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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569 FXUS02 KWBC 051915 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 315 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 08 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 12 2024 ...What is forecast to become Hurricane Milton will cause wind/surge and heavy rainfall threats across Florida Tuesday- Wednesday... ...Overview... Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to track east-northeast across the Gulf while strengthening to at least near major hurricane strength. Milton should be approaching the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by early Wednesday with high wind and storm surge threats. Additionally, tropical moisture will stream into Florida even ahead of Milton for heavy rain Tuesday, and then certainly along Milton`s track across the peninsula on Wednesday. Elsewhere, an upper trough (anchored by an upper low that may track over or near New England) will settle over the East for a few days next week as an upper ridge upstream tracks from the West to Central U.S. bringing a period of climatologically warm weather. By later next week, the leading edge of a Pacific trough will produce gradual height falls over the Northwest with some generally light precipitation to accompany. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Now that Milton has formed, model guidance is indicating it to strengthen to hurricane strength with some signal for a major hurricane as it tracks east across the Gulf. There are notable model differences in the timing and track of Milton though. The CMC remains a very slow outlier that was not preferred. The EC-based AIFS has been one of the fastest pieces of guidance, but has slowed down somewhat closer to operational guidance. Other AI models from the 00Z cycle were split, some faster like the AIFS and some slower like the operational EC, but will be interesting to see how the 12Z AI models handle Milton now that it has formed. In general the operational models are faster with showing landfall of Milton early Wednesday compared to a day ago. The 12Z ECMWF has slowed a bit from its 00Z run as it crosses Florida, which increases rainfall amounts. In any case, the NHC track seems to be a reasonable middle ground favoring the GFS/ECMWF. Milton may have a slow transition from tropical to extratropical as it is very close to frontal boundaries, and cyclone phase space diagrams generally show a lengthy period of an asymmetric warm core storm. Farther north with the main jet stream, models are reasonably agreeable with the pattern described above. The Pacific trough shows the most spread, as the ECMWF is on the slower side in bringing troughing into the West than other guidance, including some AI models. A middle ground/blended solution with its timing seemed best. The WPC forecast utilized a blend of the 00/06Z deterministic GFS/ECMWF/UKMET runs early in the period, with increasing proportions of the GEFS and EC ensemble means later next week. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Milton is forecast to be a hurricane, possibly near major hurricane strength, as it tracks across the eastern part of the Gulf Tuesday and approaches Florida. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. Additionally, enhanced tropical moisture will be in place across Florida with wavy fronts on Tuesday even before Milton approaches, promoting heavy rainfall, with more to come on Wednesday as Milton is forecast to cross the state. Upgrades to Slight Risks are planned in the ERO for Days 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday for portions of Florida. Elsewhere, the upper low over/near New England should allow for some lake-enhanced rain within in westerly flow across the Great Lakes. A mean frontal zone with one or more embedded waves should reach near the northern Pacific Northwest by early-mid week, producing some periods of light to locally moderate rain and non- zero chances of snow in the highest elevations. Widely scattered showers are possible at times across the Four Corners states into parts of the south-central U.S., but anything beyond light rain is unlikely. The strong and persistent western-central U.S. upper ridge will promote an extended period of well above normal temperatures over that part of the country. Gradual eastward drift of the ridge axis will shift the highest anomalies from the West into the Plains by Tuesday, and some northern locations could reach 20-30F above normal persisting into mid- and late week. Meanwhile height falls slowly pushing in over the West Coast will support a trend toward near normal temperatures by Wednesday or Thursday. Temperatures over most of the East should be cooler as upper troughing sets up near the East Coast. This may lead to frost/freeze concerns across portions of the Upper Great Lakes region and interior Northeast, with the timing around the median to a bit late for the first frost/freeze of the season. Tate/Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$