193
FXUS02 KWBC 191932
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 22 2025 - 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025


...Southern Plains Heavy Rain/Runoff Threat Sunday/Monday...

...Overview...

A major closed upper low will dig into/south of an unsettled
Southwest this weekend and eject toward the south-central U.S. into
early next week with lead return flow set to fuel another southern
Plains heavy rainfall threat. The system will then shear eastward
with moderating rainfall potential across the east- central U.S. to
the Mid-Atlantic/East into next midweek. Meanwhile, a couple of
upper level troughs will swing across the northern tier of the
nation in more progressive flow, resulting in periods of
precipitation for the Northwest and the Northeast.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models continue to show agreement of the closed upper low over
Southwest U.S. moving eastward into the Southern Plains into early
next week, as the trough over the Northeast continue to push out
eastward. For the first portion of the period, the ECMWF and ECens
means shows the low progressing slower than the GFS the first day,
while the GFS shows a bit more eastward progression, but overall,
the models seems to give a reasonable projection of the forecast.
Mid to late period, some of the details begin to diverge where
ECMWF and GFS show different rainfall amounts, as well as
differences in timing of the system. Therefore, towards the later
portion of the period, the forecast begins to incorporate more of
the ensemble means to help with the some of the uncertainties,
while eliminating the CMC due to major differences and
inconsistencies.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Light to moderate precipitation should spread across the Southwest
this weekend, and the potential for heavier rainfall amounts looks
to return to the south-Central U.S. Sunday into Monday. There are
signals that this could be a significant rainfall event, and this
potential will continue to be monitored. A Day 5/Sunday Marginal
Risk ERO area and embedded Slight Risk area continues over the
Southern Plains through Monday. The system may slowly shear with
organized but moderating precipitation across the east- central to
eastern U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday.

Periods of precipitation will also be possible in the Northeast
and Northwest as a series of quick- moving upper troughs/shortwaves
sweep across the northern tier of the nation. There is still some
uncertainty with the amplitude and timing of a stronger upper
trough slated to dig into the Northwest early next week. However,
favored ensemble means offer a compromise solution that still has a
dynamic upper trough/surface system that spreads some moderate to
heavy precipitation into the Northwest to include enhanced mountain
snows inland to the Rockies later period with progressive flow.

Pre-frontal temperatures will linger much warmer than average for
portions of the southern/Southeast this weekend to include a few
record temperatures, including some overnight minimum temperatures
10-20+ degrees warmer than normal. The north-central U.S. can also
expect above average temperatures, especially this weekend into
Monday. Meanwhile, California and the West/Southwest will see below
average highs 5-10+ degrees below normal with closed low passage.

Oudit/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw












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