


Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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863 FXUS02 KWBC 031845 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Valid 12Z Sun Apr 06 2025 - 12Z Thu Apr 10 2025 ...Overview... The frontal boundary responsible for significant and potentially historic flooding during the short range period should finally move east on Sunday as an amplifying upper trough drops into the north- Central U.S. and interacts with southern stream energy ejecting northeastward. There will be potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall in the Southeast as the front moves through Sunday into Monday. On the other side of the CONUS, a shortwave moving into the West will likely support precipitation chances across the Northwest through early next week. By Tuesday, the forecast should trend drier across the country as the overall pattern briefly becomes flatter and more progressive on the way toward a western ridge/eastern trough configuration. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance continues to show very good agreement today on the overall weather pattern through the medium range period. Model spread tends to increase in the second half of the period, which is typical at this time frame, which will have some impact on the finer scale details at the surface. The main question will be with the strength and timing of troughing/shortwave energy moving toward the West Coast next week and how that will affect a downstream system over the Central U.S. on days 6 and 7 (Wednesday and Thursday). The GFS favors a faster evolution while the ECMWF and CMC are slower. Overall, the WPC forecast favored a slower evolution closer to the CMC and ECMWF, which also maintains WPC forecast continuity. Given good agreement, the WPC forecast model blend consisted of even parts of the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET for the first half of the period, and ensemble means from the GEFS and ECENS were added for the second half of the period to help smooth out model differences. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... By the start of the period on Sunday, the front responsible for significant rainfall over the Lower Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley region should finally begin to shift eastward. Moderate to heavy rain and strong storms are possible along the front from the Gulf Coast states into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast, and farther north into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast near the front. The Sunday ERO shows a Marginal Risk for this region with an embedded Slight Risk from the Central Gulf Coast into portions of the Southeast. The Slight Risk area may need to be extended north across central Alabama and northern Georgia, where model guidance has been trending wetter. The front may slow for a period across parts of the Southeast on Monday, and anomalous moisture and instability favor just a marginal risk for the Day 5 ERO at this point since current QPF signals are modest at best. Elsewhere by Monday, a cold upper trough reaching the Great Lakes should lead to unsettled weather over the region with rain and/or snow. This precipitation should extend into the Northeast as well. Latest guidance shows significant differences for surface/upper evolution over the Northeast early-mid week, with the more extreme side of the spread producing some significant snowfall over parts of New England in contrast to much lighter and scattered snow in the greater proportion of solutions. Probabilities of 0.25 inch liquid in the form of snow have increased since the last forecast but still remain below 30 percent during the Tuesday-Tuesday night period. Meanwhile upstream, the upper shortwave/front expected to reach the West Coast early next week will be accompanied by a brief increase in moisture, but the system will be fairly progressive. Thus, expect mostly light precipitation with some terrain-enhanced moderate activity over western Washington/Oregon and northwestern California, with decreasing amounts inland over the Northwest. Above normal temperatures will linger along the East Coast into Sunday with daytime highs 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Meanwhile, well below normal temperatures will be in place across parts of the southern Rockies and Plains with daytime highs 10 to 20 degrees. Moderated below normal temperatures will also shift into the central U.S. and Midwest Monday and the East by Tuesday-Wednesday. Highs over and near the Ohio Valley could be up to 15 to 20 degrees below normal on Tuesday. Warmer than average temperatures initially over the Northwest this weekend should expand into the remainder of the West and the northern/central Plains by next week. A strengthening upper ridge will likely expand coverage of plus 10 to 20 degree anomalies over the West on Wednesday and Thursday. Dolan/Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$