729
WTPZ43 KNHC 052041
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082025
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 05 2025

This morning`s satellite presentation consists of a convective
curved band on the west side of the cyclone and a cluster of strong
thunderstorms with cold cloud tops of -70 Celsius just to the west
of Henriette`s surface circulation center.  The initial intensity is
held at 45 kt for this advisory and is based on a blend of the
TAFB and SAB subjective and CIMSS objective intensity estimates.

Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of
days, although 5-kt fluctuations are possible, while Henriette
moves  over slightly cooler water and through an increasingly
inhibiting thermodynamic environment.  Toward the end of the week,
the thermodynamic environment is expected to become even more
hostile while Henriette moves over the subtropical central
Pacific waters.  Therefore, some weakening of the cyclone is
forecast through day 5.  The official intensity forecast is based
on the IVCN intensity consensus model and the Decay-SHIPS
statistical aid.

Henriette`s initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward,
or 295/13 kt, and a west-northwestward or westward motion should
continue through day 4 while the cyclone is steered by a strong
mid-level ridge stretching across the subtropical Central Pacific.
Over the weekend, Henriette is expected to turn gradually
northwestward in response to an amplifying mid- to
upper-tropospheric trough approaching the Hawaiian Islands from the
Central North Pacific.  The NHC track forecast is based on the
various consensus aids and is basically an update of the previous
advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 17.0N 125.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 17.4N 127.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 17.9N 130.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 18.4N 133.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 18.8N 136.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 19.4N 139.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 20.1N 142.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 22.3N 147.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 24.5N 152.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts